Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Contributing barriers to corporate social and environmental responsibility practices in a developing country

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to explore the contributing barriers to corporate social and environmental responsibility (CSER) practices. In particular, this study focuses on non-managerial stakeholders’ perceptions of the barriers to CSER practices in a developing country context. The study also investigates the current initiatives undertaken by the different stakeholders, such as government, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and regulators. Design/methodology/approach – The study takes a qualitative approach, undertaking semi-structured in-depth interviews with 26 participants from NGOs, the media, regulatory authorities, government departments, shareholders, trade union leaders and customers. Findings – The views of stakeholder groups were analysed to identify the contributing barriers to CSER practices. The findings of the study reveal that corruption and politics, lack of coordination, lack of government initiatives and unsatisfactory implementation of laws are perceived as the major barriers that hinder CSER practices in Bangladesh. The study also found a lack of awareness amongst various stakeholder groups regarding the influential role CSER plays in promoting sustainable development. The current initiatives undertaken by various stakeholders to improve CSER practices were limited but growing. Research Limitations/implications – The study utilises the stakeholder theory to examine the role of stakeholders, rather than managers, in relation to CSER practice in Bangladesh. The findings may provide impetus for mitigating CSER barriers in a developing country context. Originality/value – This study is one of the few engagement-based studies to explore the non-managerial stakeholders’ views on CSER in a developing country contex

A brief review of leadership theory and relevent research work

A close look at the history of human civilization makes it quite apparent that man has mastered the technique of surviving by forming themselves into groups. These groups invariably involve a leader who leads. He is a gifted individual who posses special qualities like strength of character, knowledge and vision and he is capable of motivating the group members to strive hard for achieving a tangible goal. In due course, he earns the respect and loyalty of the group members and the bond between the two becomes stronger than ever. Depending upon situation, leaders may be good or bad or they may be successful or failed. Notable among the failed leaders are Late Idi Amin of Uganda mad Mengistu Haile Marium of Ethiopia. In the opinion of Terry and Franklin, the successful leaders may differ in some respect but they have certain common characteristics. They set the standard and style of living. All of them are highly motivated person who determines the high objectives for their followers and fixes high standard of performance for them. They are energetic, curious and are challenged by the unresolved problems surrounding them and urgently consolidate all their strategies and resources to overcome all the hindrances that might impede the attainment of the goals. Leadership is the process of influencing and supporting others to work concertedly toward achieving objectives It is a very crucial factor that helps groups or individuals to identify its goals and then motivates and assists in attaining the stated goals. The three most important elements of leadership are influence/support, voluntary efforts and goal achievement. Without leadership, an organization would be a confusion of people and machines just as an orchestra without a conductor would be only a conglomerate of musicians and instruments. The orchestras and all other organizations are badly in need of a competent leader to develop their potentialities to the fullest extent. The leadership process is quite similar to that of the chemical that turns a caterpillar into a butterfly with all the beauty that was the caterpillar`s potential. Leadership is then the catalyst that helps in transforming hidden potential into reality. This role is often seen dramatically in giant business organizations. For example when Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Jack Welch played the role of a leader in the transformation of General Electric Company from a sleeping giant of 1980 into a sleek machine of twenty first century. It is uniquely important in smaller organizations like Microsoft Corporation, which Bill Gates started and guided to national importance as a developer of microcomputer software and operating system. At the same time the success and failures of Al Dunlop accents the catalyst role that leaders generally play while demonstrating the fact that many leadership style has a `dark side’ in them for example the hardship to laid-off employees and dangers of a narrow focus on a single goal. In all cases, leadership is the ultimate act that identifies, develops, channels and caritas the potential that is lardy in an organization and its people. The most successful leader of an organization performs important tasks and acts in a way that provides followers with sense of satisfaction and fulfillment in performing the assigned work and reaching the goal. Leaders trigger a person’s ’will to do, show the way and guide the group members towards goal accomplishment. As the writer of Ecclesiastes astutely observed, In the Bible, the significance of vision was emphasized as follows When there is no vision, people perish. The leader invariably provides vision to the followers and thus capacity to lead is an important quality of a good manager. Notable among the leaders whose name and fame has spread across the world are Alexander the Great, Napoleon Bonaparte, Admiral Nelson, Sir Winston Churchill, George Washington, Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, Jawaharlal Nehru. The very discussion on leadership would remain incomplete if vital contributions made by unique leadrrs like Nelson Mandela of South Africa and Dr. Mathis bin Mohammad of Malaysia are not put on record. They are quite gifted leaders who have demonstrated emphatically that a country would be able to attain peace and progress no matter how daunting the situations are. It is quite interesting to note that nations and communities who could not produce outstanding leaders have somehow lagged behind in the field of social and economic progress. Besides some of the corporate leaders who have radically transformed out contemporary social and economic life are Henry Ford, Jamshedji Nawsherwanji Tate, Adamjee, Ispahani, Dhirubhai Ambani, Alfred P. Sloan, Sloichiro Honda, Eastman Kodak, Akio Morita of Sony, Sir Richard Branson of Virgin Air, Bill Gates of Microsoft. Last but not the least, a corporate leader who has succeeded in establishing himself, as an ideal leader is Jack Welch of General Electric Company Based on his vast experience as the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the world’s largest company, he has outlined some fundamental guidelines to be followed by leaders for achieving growth and success. It has been observed that people have tendency to follow an individual (essentially leader) who, in their view, offers them a means of satisfying their own personal goal Thus every successful manager who is also required to play the role of a leader must follow some definite principles. These principles imply that managers must understand their assigned activities, the subordinates and how the different motivational factors influence them. As a result of strict adherence to these principles while carrying out its duties, a manager can groom himself up as an effective leader. A pertinent question that confronts all of us is who are these leaders and how they are made? Is there any magical rule for becoming a leader? Can we copy them or clone them as the sheep Dolly? With a view to find plausible answer to these questions relating to leadership, numerous authors and researchers have carried out extensive study. The preceding discussion makes it quite apparent that leadership is a combination of several key elements namely leader, power, style and follower. The very vital task of leadership is once again closely related with the role played by a manager. Thus the present paper seeks to investigate deeper into the concept of leadership and accordingly divided the same into nine sections In section two, the term leadership would be defined in an elaborate manner and highlight its essential elements. Part three of the paper examines the essential ingredients of the concept of leadership. The fourth, fifth and sixth part of the paper deals at length on the aspects of power, style and follower of a leader that add substance to the position and status of a leader. The seventh part of the paper evaluates the relative position and role of a leader and a manager. The section eight of the paper enumerates the various theories of leadership and evaluates their contribution to the body of literature on leadership. The ninth part tries to portray some of the new ideas that have emerged over the period and assess their practical implication. The tenth and concluding part of the paper sums up the study and puts forth some suggestion for the guidance of the future leaders. This would go a long way in fully understanding the meaning of leadership and help in creating an environment conducive to the growth and enrichment of the art of leadership

Predicción del grado de discapacidad en adultos con lesión medular de Bogotá, usando el WHO-DAS II

Introduction Spinal cord injury is a devastating condition associated with a permanent disability. Factors such as medical, social, psychological and economic problems can contribute to its increase. To build a predictive model from WHO- DAS II, the degree of disability in adults with spinal cord injury in Bogota (Colombia) it helps to understand the factors that influence the disability. Materials and methods Descriptive correlational study. It was carry out with a sample of 51 people with spinal cord injury, older than 18 with more than six months of evolution of varied causes, location and extension. The Spanish version of the WHO-DAS II of 36 items and the ASIA impairment scale were used. Tools of descriptive statistics and construction of linear regression models were used for data analysis. Results Significant relationship of global disability with socio- demographic variables (level of education, occupation, economical status and affiliation to the general social security health), clinical variables (duration and neurological level of the injury and clinical complications in the last year), and variables associated with rehabilitation services (access, assistive devices and vocational, job and educational counseling) were found. Conclusion The predictive model of global disability in adults in Bogotá with a spinal cord injury for more than 6 months is composed of the following post-injury variables: neurological level of the injury, number of clinical complications in the last year, and unemployment after the injury. © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and SERMEF

Perdas endógenas e coeficientes de absorção aparente e real do magnésio em caprinos Endogenous losses and coefficients of apparent and true absorption of magnesium in goats

Os objetivos deste trabalho foram determinar a absorção aparente, estimar as perdas endógenas fecais e a absorção real do Mg e determinar a ingestão ad libitum da água de beber e a concentração de Mg no soro sangüíneo de caprinos da raças Anglonubiana (AN) e Saanen (SN). Foram usados doze caprinos, seis de cada raça, com 19,8 kg PV médio. Dietas semipurificadas (baixo teor de Mg) à base de quirera de arroz, glúten de milho e celulose foram suplementadas com MgO, para se obterem os níveis de 0,05 (sem supplementação) 0,20 e 0,35% Mg (%MS). Os níveis de Mg influenciaram os coeficientes de absorção aparente de Mg e Ca, com valores médios de 57,8; 73,9; e 73,2% para Mg e 55,7; 39,6; e 49,5% para Ca, para dietas com níveis 0,05; 0,20; e 0,35% de Mg, respectivamente. Entretanto, para os coeficientes de absorção aparente de P, Na e K, não houve efeito de níveis de Mg na dieta. Os resultados de absorção real de Mg apresentaram interação de níveis de Mg e raças. A média para raça NA, no nível 0,05% Mg, foi de 61,0% e para os níveis 0,20 e 0,35% Mg, 77,2 e 73,2%, respectivamente. Entretanto, para a raça SN, as médias foram 73,3; 75,5; e 76,0%, para os mesmos níveis, sem diferenças. A digestibilidade de matéria seca, proteína bruta e extrato não-nitrogenado diminuiu com os níveis crescentes de Mg nas dietas. As excreções fecais (7,0; 20,8; e 34,4 mg/kg PV0,75.d) e urinárias (3,9; 30,8; e 44,6 mg/kg PV0,75.d) de Mg elevaram-se com o aumento dos níveis crescentes de Mg nas dietas. Houve, também, influência dos níveis de Mg dietético sobre as concentrações de Mg do soro sangüíneo (1,74; 2,23; e 2,80 mg/dL para níveis de 0,05; 0,20; e 0,35% de Mg, respectivamente).<br>The objectives of this experiment were to determine the apparent absorption, to estimate the endogenous fecal losses and the true absorption of Mg and to determine the ad libitum drinking water ingestion and the Mg serum concentration for Anglonubian (AN) and Saanen (SN) goat breeds. Twelve kids, six of each breed, with average 19.8 kg LW, were used. Semipurified diets (low Mg content) based on cracked rice, corn gluten meal and cellulose were supplemented with MgO to obtain the levels of .05 (without supplementation), .20 and .35% of Mg (% DM). The levels of Mg affected the coefficient of apparent absorption of Mg and Ca, with average values of 57.8, 73.9, and 73.2% for Mg and 55.7, 39.6 and 49.5% for Ca for diets with .05, .20, and .35% Mg, respectively. However, there was no effect of the dietary Mg level on the coefficient of apparent absorption of P, Na and K. An interaction between Mg level and breeds was observed for the real absorption of Mg. The mean for AN breed, on the level .05% Mg was 61.0% and for the levels 0.20 and 0.35% Mg, 77.2 and 73.2%, respectively. However, for SN breed the means were 73.3, 75.5 and 76.0%, for the same levels, without differences. The digestibility of dry matter, crude protein, and nitrogen free extract decreased with the crescent dietary Mg level. The fecal (7.0, 20.8 and 34.4 mg/kg LW0.75.d) and urinary (3.9, 30.8 and 44.6 mg/kg LW0.75.d) Mg excretion increased with the crescent dietary Mg level. There was also influence of the dietary Mg level on the blood serum Mg concentration (1.74, 2.23 and 2.80 mg/dL for .05, .20, and .35% Mg, respectively)

Search for photons above 1018^{18} eV by simultaneously measuring the atmospheric depth and the muon content of air showers at the Pierre Auger Observatory

International audienceThe Pierre Auger Observatory is the most sensitive instrument to detect photons with energies above $10^{17}$ eV. It measures extensive air showers generated by ultra high energy cosmic rays using a hybrid technique that exploits the combination of a fluorescence detector with a ground array of particle detectors. The signatures of a photon-induced air shower are a larger atmospheric depth of the shower maximum ($X_{max}$) and a steeper lateral distribution function, along with a lower number of muons with respect to the bulk of hadron-induced cascades. In this work, a new analysis technique in the energy interval between 1 and 30 EeV (1 EeV = $10^{18}$ eV) has been developed by combining the fluorescence detector-based measurement of $X_{max}$ with the specific features of the surface detector signal through a parameter related to the air shower muon content, derived from the universality of the air shower development. No evidence of a statistically significant signal due to photon primaries was found using data collected in about 12 years of operation. Thus, upper bounds to the integral photon flux have been set using a detailed calculation of the detector exposure, in combination with a data-driven background estimation. The derived 95% confidence level upper limits are 0.0403, 0.01113, 0.0035, 0.0023, and 0.0021 km$^{-2}$ sr$^{-1}$ yr$^{-1}$ above 1, 2, 3, 5, and 10 EeV, respectively, leading to the most stringent upper limits on the photon flux in the EeV range. Compared with past results, the upper limits were improved by about 40% for the lowest energy threshold and by a factor 3 above 3 EeV, where no candidates were found and the expected background is negligible. The presented limits can be used to probe the assumptions on chemical composition of ultra-high energy cosmic rays and allow for the constraint of the mass and lifetime phase space of super-heavy dark matter particles