A stabilized cut finite element method for partial differential equations on surfaces: The Laplace-Beltrami operator

We consider solving the Laplace-Beltrami problem on a smooth two dimensional surface embedded into a three dimensional space meshed with tetrahedra. The mesh does not respect the surface and thus the surface cuts through the elements. We consider a Galerkin method based on using the restrictions of continuous piecewise linears defined on the tetrahedra to the surface as trial and test functions. The resulting discrete method may be severely ill-conditioned, and the main purpose of this paper is to suggest a remedy for this problem based on adding a consistent stabilization term to the original bilinear form. We show optimal estimates for the condition number of the stabilized method independent of the location of the surface. We also prove optimal a priori error estimates for the stabilized method

A Simulation Estimator for Testing the Time Homogeneity of Credit Rating Transition

The measurement of credit quality is at the heart of the models designed to assess the reserves and capital needed to support the risks of both individual credits and portfolios of credit instruments. A popular specification for credit- rating transitions is the simple, time-homogeneous Markov model. While the Markov specification cannot really describe processes in the long run, it may be useful for adequately describing short-run changes in portfolio risk. In this specification, the entire stochastic process can be characterized in terms of estimated transition probabilities. However, the simple homogeneous Markovian transition framework is restrictive. We propose a test of the null hypotheses of time-homogeneity that can be performed on the sorts of data often reported. We apply the tests to 4 data sets, on commercial paper, sovereign debt, municipal bonds and S&P Corporates. The results indicate that commercial paper looks Markovian on a 30-day time scale for up to 6 months; sovereign debt also looks Markovian (perhaps due to a small sample size); municipals are well-modeled by the Markov specification for up to 5 years, but could probably benefit from frequent updating of the estimated transition matrix or from more sophisticated modeling, and S&P Corporate ratings are approximately Markov over 3 transitions but not 4.

Specification and Informational Issues in Credit Scoring

Lenders use rating and scoring models to rank credit applicants on their expected performance. The models and approaches are numerous. We explore the possibility that estimates generated by models developed with data drawn solely from extended loans are less valuable than they should be because of selectivity bias. We investigate the value of "reject inference"--methods that use a rejected applicant's characteristics, rather than loan performance data, in scoring model development. In the course of making this investigation, we also discuss the advantages of using parametric as well as nonparametric modeling. These issues are discussed and illustrated in the context of a simple stylized model.