The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability

This is the final version. Available on open access from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this recordData Availability: The data that support the findings of this study are openly available at https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/projects/cmip6-ceda/. ERA5 data are available from ECMWF. Radiosonde data are available from Leopold Haimberger. Our code is freely available at https://github.com/BrisClim/.Tropospheric and stratospheric tropical temperature trends in recent decades have been notoriously hard to simulate using climate models, particularly in the upper troposphere. Aside from the warming trend itself, this has broader implications, e.g. atmospheric circulation trends depend on latitudinal temperature gradients. In this study, tropical temperature trends in the CMIP6 models are examined, from 1979 to 2014, and contrasted with trends from the RICH/RAOBCORE radiosondes, and the ERA5/5.1 reanalysis. As in earlier studies, we find considerable warming biases in the CMIP6 modeled trends, and we show that these biases are linked to biases in surface temperature. We also uncover previously undocumented biases in the lower-middle stratosphere: the CMIP6 models appear unable to capture the time evolution of stratospheric cooling, which is non-monotonic owing to the Montreal Protocol. Finally, using models with large ensembles, we show that their standard deviation in tropospheric temperature trends, which is due to internal variability alone, explains ∼ 50% (± 20%) of that from the CMIP6 models.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)University of BristolUS National Science Foundatio

Biases in southern hemisphere climate trends induced by coarsely specifying the temporal resolution of stratospheric ozone

Global climate models that do not include interactive middle atmosphere chemistry, such as most of those contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, typically specify stratospheric ozone using monthly mean, zonal mean values and linearly interpolate to the time resolution of the model. We show that this method leads to significant biases in the simulated climate of the southern hemisphere (SH) over the late twentieth century. Previous studies have attributed similar biases in simulated SH climate change to the effect of the spatial smoothing of the specified ozone, i.e., to using zonal mean concentrations. We here show that the bias in climate trends due to undersampling of the rapid temporal changes in ozone during the seasonal evolution of the Antarctic ozone hole is considerable and reaches all the way into the troposphere. Our results suggest that the bias can be substantially reduced by specifying daily ozone concentrations

The Response of the Ozone Layer to Quadrupled CO₂ Concentrations

An accurate quantification of the stratospheric ozone feedback in climate change simulations requires knowledge of the ozone response to increased greenhouse gases. Here, an analysis is presented of the ozone layer response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 concentrations in four chemistry–climate models. The authors show that increased CO2 levels lead to a decrease in ozone concentrations in the tropical lower stratosphere, and an increase over the high latitudes and throughout the upper stratosphere. This pattern is robust across all models examined here, although important intermodel differences in the magnitude of the response are found. As a result of the cancellation between the upper- and lower-stratospheric ozone, the total column ozone response in the tropics is small, and appears to be model dependent. A substantial portion of the spread in the tropical column ozone is tied to intermodel spread in upwelling. The high-latitude ozone response is strongly seasonally dependent, and shows increases peaking in late winter and spring of each hemisphere, with prominent longitudinal asymmetries. The range of ozone responses to CO2 reported in this paper has the potential to induce significant radiative and dynamical effects on the simulated climate. Hence, these results highlight the need of using an ozone dataset consistent with CO2 forcing in models involved in climate sensitivity studies

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6)

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) is a major update of the whole atmosphere modeling capability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM), featuring enhanced physical, chemical and aerosol parameterizations. This work describes WACCM6 and some of the important features of the model. WACCM6 can reproduce many modes of variability and trends in the middle atmosphere, including the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation, Stratospheric Sudden Warmings and the evolution of Southern Hemisphere springtime ozone depletion over the 20th century. WACCM6 can also reproduce the climate and temperature trends of the 20th century throughout the atmospheric column. The representation of the climate has improved in WACCM6, relative to WACCM4. In addition, there are improvements in high latitude climate variability at the surface and sea ice extent in WACCM6 over the lower top version of the model (CAM6) that come from the extended vertical domain and expanded aerosol chemistry in WACCM6, highlighting the importance of the stratosphere and tropospheric chemistry for high latitude climate variability

Large Impacts, Past and Future, of Ozone-Depleting Substances on Brewer-Dobson Circulation Trends: A Multimodel Assessment

Substantial increases in the atmospheric concentration of well‐mixed greenhouse gases (notably CO2), such as those projected to occur by the end of the 21st century under large radiative forcing scenarios, have long been known to cause an acceleration of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation (BDC) in climate models. More recently, however, several single‐model studies have proposed that ozone‐depleting substances might also be important drivers of BDC trends. As these studies were conducted with different forcings over different periods, it is difficult to combine them to obtain a robust quantitative picture of the relative importance of ozone‐depleting substances as drivers of BDC trends. To this end, we here analyze—over identical past and future periods—the output from 20 similarly forced models, gathered from two recent chemistry‐climate modeling intercomparison projects. Our multimodel analysis reveals that ozone‐depleting substances are responsible for more than half of the modeled BDC trends in the two decades 1980–2000. We also find that, as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, decreasing concentrations of ozone‐depleting substances in coming decades will strongly decelerate the BDC until the year 2080, reducing the age‐of‐air trends by more than half, and will thus substantially mitigate the impact of increasing CO2. As ozone‐depleting substances impact BDC trends, primarily, via the depletion/recovery of stratospheric ozone over the South Pole, they impart seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries to the trends which may offer opportunities for detection in coming decades

Polar vortex formation in giant-planet atmospheres due to moist convection

A strong cyclonic vortex has been observed on each of Saturn’s poles, coincident with a local maximum in observed tropospheric temperature. Neptune also exhibits a relatively warm, although much more transient, region on its south pole. Whether similar features exist on Jupiter will be resolved by the 2016 Juno mission. Energetic, small-scale storm-like features that originate from the water-cloud level or lower have been observed on each of the giant planets and attributed to moist convection, suggesting that these storms play a significant role in global heat transfer from the hot interior to space. Nevertheless, the creation and maintenance of Saturn’s polar vortices, and their presence or absence on the other giant planets, are not understood. Here we use simulations with a shallow-water model to show that storm generation, driven by moist convection, can create a strong polar cyclone throughout the depth of a planet’s troposphere. We find that the type of shallow polar flow that occurs on a giant planet can be described by the size ratio of small eddies to the planetary radius and the energy density of its atmosphere due to latent heating from moist convection. We suggest that the observed difference in these parameters between Saturn and Jupiter may preclude a Jovian polar cyclone.National Science Foundation (U.S.). Graduate Research FellowshipNational Science Foundation (U.S.) (ATM-0850639)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (AGS-1032244)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (AGS-1136480)United States. Office of Naval Research (N00014-14-1-0062

The different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America

The stratospheric polar vortex can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather in the mid-latitudes. Weak vortex states, often associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), have been shown to increase the risk of cold-spells especially over Eurasia, but its role for North American winters is less clear. Using cluster analysis, we show that there are two dominant patterns of increased polar cap heights in the lower stratosphere. Both patterns represent a weak polar vortex but they are associated with different wave mechanisms and different regional tropospheric impacts. The first pattern is zonally symmetric and associated with absorbed upward-propagating wave activity, leading to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and cold-air outbreaks over northern Eurasia. This coupling mechanism is well-documented in the literature and is consistent with the downward migration of the northern annular mode (NAM). The second pattern is zonally asymmetric and linked to downward reflected planetary waves over Canada followed by a negative phase of the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and cold-spells in Central Canada and the Great Lakes region. Causal effect network (CEN) analyses confirm the atmospheric pathways associated with this asymmetric pattern. Moreover, our findings suggest the reflective mechanism to be sensitive to the exact region of upward wave-activity fluxes and to be state-dependent on the strength of the vortex. Identifying the causal pathways that operate on weekly to monthly timescales can pave the way for improved sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting of cold spells in the mid-latitudes

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase

Control of Gastric H,K-ATPase Activity by Cations, Voltage and Intracellular pH Analyzed by Voltage Clamp Fluorometry in Xenopus Oocytes

Whereas electrogenic partial reactions of the Na,K-ATPase have been studied in depth, much less is known about the influence of the membrane potential on the electroneutrally operating gastric H,K-ATPase. In this work, we investigated site-specifically fluorescence-labeled H,K-ATPase expressed in Xenopus oocytes by voltage clamp fluorometry to monitor the voltage-dependent distribution between E1P and E2P states and measured Rb+ uptake under various ionic and pH conditions. The steady-state E1P/E2P distribution, as indicated by the voltage-dependent fluorescence amplitudes and the Rb+ uptake activity were highly sensitive to small changes in intracellular pH, whereas even large extracellular pH changes affected neither the E1P/E2P distribution nor transport activity. Notably, intracellular acidification by approximately 0.5 pH units shifted V0.5, the voltage, at which the E1P/E2P ratio is 50∶50, by −100 mV. This was paralleled by an approximately two-fold acceleration of the forward rate constant of the E1P→E2P transition and a similar increase in the rate of steady-state cation transport. The temperature dependence of Rb+ uptake yielded an activation energy of ∼90 kJ/mol, suggesting that ion transport is rate-limited by a major conformational transition. The pronounced sensitivity towards intracellular pH suggests that proton uptake from the cytoplasmic side controls the level of phosphoenzyme entering the E1P→E2P conformational transition, thus limiting ion transport of the gastric H,K-ATPase. These findings highlight the significance of cellular mechanisms contributing to increased proton availability in the cytoplasm of gastric parietal cells. Furthermore, we show that extracellular Na+ profoundly alters the voltage-dependent E1P/E2P distribution indicating that Na+ ions can act as surrogates for protons regarding the E2P→E1P transition. The complexity of the intra- and extracellular cation effects can be rationalized by a kinetic model suggesting that cations reach the binding sites through a rather high-field intra- and a rather low-field extracellular access channel, with fractional electrical distances of ∼0.5 and ∼0.2, respectively