О влиянии гляциологических и гидрометеорологических условий на гляциальную опасность Заилийского Алатау

A need to estimate a hazard of a mudflow stream appearance in the glacial-nival zone of the Northern slope of Zailiyskiy Alatau (Kasakhstan) is now one of the really urgent problems. The objective of this study was to inves‑ tigate influence of glacial and hydrometeorological factors on the condition of snow-glacial zone of Zailiyskiy Alatau and find out a mudflow-forming role of the mudflow centers arising due to climate warming and degra‑ dation of glaciation: periglacial lakes, intramoraine channels and reservoirs, and also talik massifs of morainic deposits. We analyzed glacial processes in the Zailiysky Alatau over a long period using meteorological data of the Almaty weather station and its close correlations with data from weather stations in the mountains. The area of glaciations was found out to be reduced after the maximum of the Little Ice Age. A combined diagram of occurrence of the mudflow manifestations and factors causing them had been constructed on the basis of sta‑ tistical data on the landslide phenomena. Glacial mudflows were the most frequent in 1960–1990, and later on activity of them became weaker. We believe, that in the next 10–20 years, the glacial mudflow hazard in Zailiys‑ kiy Alatau can sharply decrease, but at the same time, a probability of occurrence of the rainfall mudflows can increase in the mountainous zone of the ridge due the increase of areas with melted moraine and slope deposits.Для территории северного склона хр.  Заилийский Алатау (Тянь-Шань) по натурным данным за 100-летний период исследованы изменения климата, характер деградации оледенения и динамика возникновения опасных гляциогидрологических явлений. Указанные явления опосредованно связаны с изменением климата и представляют собой следствие развития моренно-ледниковых комплексов до их опасного состояния при деградации оледенения. Такое состояние моренно-ледниковых комплексов было характерно для периода деградации оледенения в 1960–2000 гг., когда оно сократилось на 55–80% после максимума малого ледникового периода. В  настоящее время опасность гляциальной зоны Заилийского Алатау находится на спаде

Effects of glaciological and hydro-meteorological conditions on the glacial danger in Zailiyskiy Alatau

A need to estimate a hazard of a mudflow stream appearance in the glacial-nival zone of the Northern slope of Zailiyskiy Alatau (Kasakhstan) is now one of the really urgent problems. The objective of this study was to inves‑ tigate influence of glacial and hydrometeorological factors on the condition of snow-glacial zone of Zailiyskiy Alatau and find out a mudflow-forming role of the mudflow centers arising due to climate warming and degra‑ dation of glaciation: periglacial lakes, intramoraine channels and reservoirs, and also talik massifs of morainic deposits. We analyzed glacial processes in the Zailiysky Alatau over a long period using meteorological data of the Almaty weather station and its close correlations with data from weather stations in the mountains. The area of glaciations was found out to be reduced after the maximum of the Little Ice Age. A combined diagram of occurrence of the mudflow manifestations and factors causing them had been constructed on the basis of sta‑ tistical data on the landslide phenomena. Glacial mudflows were the most frequent in 1960–1990, and later on activity of them became weaker. We believe, that in the next 10–20 years, the glacial mudflow hazard in Zailiys‑ kiy Alatau can sharply decrease, but at the same time, a probability of occurrence of the rainfall mudflows can increase in the mountainous zone of the ridge due the increase of areas with melted moraine and slope deposits