Estimating Frisch Labor Supply Elasticity in Japan

Using Japanese data from the 1990s aggregated by prefecture, age group, and sex, we estimate Frisch labor supply elasticity, which has been seldom estimated in Japan. The change in labor supply can be decomposed into two labor-supply behaviors: extensive margin, indicating workersf entry and exit from the labor market; and intensive margin, indicating changes in hours of work in response to a wage change. Our estimates of the Frisch elasticity on the extensive and intensive margins combined are in the range of 0.2 to 0.7 for males, 1.3 to 1.5 for females, and 0.7 to 1.0 for both sexes. Our estimates of the Frisch elasticity on only the intensive margin are in the range of 0.1 to 0.2 for all three categories. These results suggest that extensive margin explains the bulk of labor-supply changes in Japan. As for the changes in the estimates of the Frisch elasticity in Japan from the 1990s, it has been either unchanged or in a declining trend on the extensive and intensive margins combined, either unchanged or in a slight rising trend on only the intensive margin, and in a declining trend on only the extensive margin.Labor supply, Frisch elasticity, Extensive margin, Intensive margin

What determines work hours?: who you work with or where you work?

By using a unique dataset on managerial-level employees who were transferred from Japan to European branches of the same global firms, we examine what would happen to work hours when a worker moves from a long-hour-working country to relatively shorter-hour countries. Even after controlling for business cycles, unobserved individual heterogeneity, job characteristics, and work hour regulations, we find a significant decline in Japanese work hours after their transfer to Europe, resulting from working-behavior influences of locally hired staff. We also find that the reduction in hours worked highly depends on the extent of the workers’ interactions with local peers.

Why Are Nominal Wages Downwardly Rigid, but Less So in Japan? An Explanation Based on Behavioral Economics and Labor Market/Macroeconomic Differences

In this paper, we survey the theoretical and empirical literature to investigate why nominal wages can be downwardly rigid. Looking back from the 19th century until recently, we first examine the existence and extent of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) for several countries. We find that (1) nominal wages were flexible in the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century, but (2) nominal wages were downwardly rigid in almost all the industrialized countries in the second half of the 20th century, although (3) the extent of DNWR varied from country to country. Next, we use a behavioral economics framework to explain the reasons for DNWR. We also explain why the existence and extent of DNWR varied between time periods and/or from country to country, focusing on differences in the labor market characteristics (such as labor mobility and employment protection legislation) and in the macroeconomic environment (such as economic growth and inflation), which can alter employeesf and firmsf perceptions toward nominal wage cuts.Downward nominal wage rigidity; Behavioral economics; Labor mobility; Employment protection legislation; Inflation rate; Indexation

The Impact of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity on the Unemployment Rate: Quantitative Evidence from Japan

To what extent does downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) raise the unemployment rate during periods of low inflation or deflation? To answer this question, we simulate the impact on the male unemployment rate in Japan, by incorporating the DNWR of full-time male employees as estimated by Kuroda and Yamamoto into the general equilibrium model of Akerlof et al. The simulation results show the following. First, the DNWR estimated by Kuroda and Yamamoto with Japanese longitudinal data from 1993-98 has a minor impact on the unemployment rate compared with the case of perfect DNWR. Nevertheless, this impact is not trivial in the sense that it raises the unemployment rate by as much as 1.8 percentage points under the baseline parameters adopted in this paper. Second regarding the relationship with the rate of inflation, DNWR does not cause unemployment as long as the inflation rate is approximately 2.4 percent or higher whereas its effects tend to increase gradually as the inflation rate falls below 2.4 percent. When inflation is below approximately 1 percent, however, the marginal increase in unemployment attributable to DNWR is small since DNWR is moderated by the adjustments to bonuses and extensive wage cuts observed in our Japanese data sets. Instead, under these conditions, it is the additional unemployment brought by labor market distortions that becomes the issue.

Are Japanese Nominal Wages Downwardly Rigid? (Part II): Examinations Using a Friction Model

This paper confirms the existence of downward nominal wage rigidity in Japan as presented in Kuroda and Yamamoto (2003) and quantifies the extent of this downward nominal wage rigidity by applying econometric methods to Japanese longitudinal data. Using 1993-98 data, we find that downward nominal wage rigidity does exist in Japan even after controlling the individual characteristics and the measurement errors in reported nominal wages. In addition, we find that the extent of the downward nominal wage rigidity is sensitive to the choice of wage measures. While the hourly wages of part-time female employees exhibit almost complete downward rigidity, the extents of the downward rigidity are limited for the regular monthly salaries and annual earnings of full- time employees. For example, our estimates show that the regular monthly salaries of full-time male and female employees will not be cut as long as the notional wages do not decline by more than about 7.7 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively. However, when the notional wage change rates exceed these threshold values, nominal wage cuts do occur.

Are Japanese Nominal Wages Downwardly Rigid? (Part I): Examinations of Nominal Wage Change Distributions

This paper examines downward nominal wage rigidity in Japan at the individual level using Japanese longitudinal data. By observing the nominal wage change distributions and applying several statistical tests for asymmetry to them, we obtain the following findings. First, using 1993-98 data, the nominal wage change distributions are statistically skewed to the right with large spikes near the zero points, which indicates that downward nominal wage rigidity does exist in Japan. Second, the extent of the downward nominal wage rigidity is sensitive to the choice of nominal wage measures. While the extent of the downward rigidity for the hourly wages of part-time female employees is substantial, those for the regular monthly salaries and annual earnings of full-time male and female employees are limited in the sense that approximately one-fourth of the full-time employee samples experience nominal cuts. Third, for the regular monthly salaries of male employees only, the observed right-skewness of the nominal wage distributions tends to decrease as the inflation rate rises, although the analysis is limited to a period with an extremely low inflation rate.

How Can We Extract a Fundamental Trend from an Economic Time- Series?

This paper attempts to extract a fundamental trend, which we call a " trend-cycle component," from an economic time-series. The "trend-cycle component" consists of a medium-term business cycle component and a long- term trend component. The objective is to eliminate the short-term irregular and seasonal variations that hide a fundamental trend in an economic time-series. We test five different time-series methods. Among them, the Henderson moving average (which is incorporated in an X-12- ARIMA seasonal adjustment program), the Band-Pass filter (which utilizes a Fourier transformation), and the DECOMP are found to be effective in extracting a "trend-cycle component" with a cyclical period longer than 1 .5 years. However, no method is found to be effective in extracting a " long-term trend component" with a cyclical period longer than that of a medium-term business cycle. Although the HP filter is somewhat successful , it still contains a component with a cyclical period of about three years that corresponds to a business cycle. These methods are useful for forecasting a wide variety of economic variables because they reveal a fundamental trend in the time series. In addition, statistical programs are available for easy application. They have, however, a few shortcomings. First, it is often difficult to provide a meaningful economic interpretation of the revealed characteristics of the "trend- cycle component." Second, the addition of new data can change the estimation results. In particular, an extracted component around the end of a sample period is likely to be revised with new data. Special caution is in order, therefore, in interpreting the estimation results and forecasting the time series when the data exhibit large variations. In this case, comparing the results of different methods provides a useful way to assess the reliability of an extracted "trend-cycle component."

What Determines the Relation between the Output Gap and Inflation ? An International Comparison of Inflation Expectations and Staggered Wage Adjustment

This paper undertakes a cross-country study on the price- output gap relationship for selected industrialized countries (Japan, the U.S., Germany, the U.K., and Canada). The estimation results show that the price-output gap relationship in these countries can be classified into two categories: (1) a Phillips Curve type (in which the output gap fluctuation affects the inflation rate); and (2) a NAIRU type (in which fluctuations in the output gap affect changes in the inflation rate). In addition, such classifications may vary according to the sample period chosen. During the first half of the observation period (1978-86), NAIRU- type relations existed in all countries except Japan. During the second half (1987-97), NAIRU-type relations were observed in the U.S., the U.K., and Canada, while Phillips Curve-type relations were indicated in Japan and Germany. These results lead to the presumption that the price-output gap relationship is influenced by the recent inflation record, which is one of the most important factors that determine the formation mechanism of inflation expectations and the speed of price adjustment.

Does downsizing take a toll on retained staff? An analysis of increased working hours during recessions using Japanese micro data

Using official household micro data from the Labour Force Survey, this paper examines the increase in the working hours of regular male employees in Japan under recession from the late 1990s to the early 2000s. The most important findings of this paper are that working hours tended to be longer among male regular employees of firms in which (1) there was major employment adjustment, (2) substantial increase in proportion of non-regular workers, and (3) wide variance in regular wages. The results suggest that the existence of a large amount of fixed duties that are necessary to maintain internal organization and transition from the traditional employment system are the main factors that explain the increase in the working hours during the recession in Japan.

Do Japanese Work Shorter Hours than before?: Measuring Trends in Market Work and Leisure Using 1976-2006 Japanese Time-Use Survey

Using Japanese time-use data from the Survey on Time Use and Leisure Activities (STULA), this paper measures trends in average hours worked (market work) and leisure for Japanese over the past three decades. OECD reports at least a 15 percent decline in market work for Japan since the 1970s. However, holding demographic changes constant, we found that market work per week increased from the 1970s until mid 1980s, and has been relatively stable for the last two decades for both male and female full-time workers. Furthermore, although the market work per week remained relatively constant since the mid 1980s, we found a significant change in the allocation of time to market work within the week during the period. Specifically, when dividing samples into weekdays (Monday through Friday) and weekends (Saturday and Sunday), average hours spent for market work per weekday among full-time males increased by 0.4 hour since the mid 1980s, whereas a significant decline in market work on Saturday was observed. This suggests that people shifted their work time from Saturday to weekdays in response to the reduced work week introduced by the amendment of the Labour Standards Act at the end of 1980s. In the meantime, commuting time and home production had decreased by 3 hours since the mid-1980s for full-time female workers, indicating that the average hours of leisure had increased for females even though market work remained the same. Interestingly, however, hours for sleep declined consistently over the last three decades, resulting in a 3-4 hour reduction per week for both male and female workers. Lastly, a comparison of Japanese and US time use data suggests that Japanese work much longer than their American counterparts. On average, Japanese males work 8.6 hours longer per week, and Japanese females 6.5 hours longer, than Americans, even after adjusting for demographic differences between the countries.