Trade, Foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises in a general equilibrium model

Trade, foreign direct investment and the existence of multinational enterprises are often analyzed in separate model, which are frequently based on mutually exclusive assumptions. The paper integrates several features of international economic exchange into one general equilibrium model. This model explains various types of trade (interindustry, intraindustry, intrafirm), foreign direct investment (one-way, cross-hauling of FDI), and the existence of multinational enterprises (vertically as well as horizontally integrated ones). With the market structure being endogeneous, different production, trade and investment patterns can occur. In order to assess the influence of country asymmetries (relative and absolute factor endowment differences) and transport costs on production patterns as well as trade and investment flows, simulation techniques are applied to various specifications of the model.

Bayesian variants of some classical semiparametric regression techniques

This paper develops new Bayesian methods for semiparametric inference in the partial linear Normal regression model: y=zβ+f(x)+var epsilon where f(.) is an unknown function. These methods draw solely on the Normal linear regression model with natural conjugate prior. Hence, posterior results are available which do not suffer from some problems which plague the existing literature such as computational complexity. Methods for testing parametric regression models against semiparametric alternatives are developed. We discuss how these methods can, at some cost in terms of computational complexity, be extended to other models (e.g. qualitative choice models or those involving censoring or truncation) and provide precise details for a semiparametric probit model. We show how the assumption of Normal errors can easily be relaxed

Monetary overhang and the dynamics of prices, exchange rates, and income in the transition to a market economy

The long road from capitalism to capitalism the Eastern European economies have made has been paved with many economic problems, but the transition from a command economy into a market economy is likely to become a bumpy ride as well. Apart from the major real economic reforms that have to take place, combined with virtual turnaround of the political structure, several countries aiming to reform face a monetary problem as well. Due to persistent state budget deficits, financed by the printing press, a so called monetary overhang threatens the reform process. Monetary overhang is here defined as the excess of money supply over demand at the current price level and at world market interest rates. The consequences of the monetary overhang under a planning system are obvious: the fixity of prices prevents the real money supply from falling to its equilibrium level, and the situation of repressed inflation translates into long queues in front of shops, forced savings, and, if not checked, into a flourishing black market and corruption. The official exchange rate is overvalued, but import demand is checked by rationing of foreign exchange.

Semiparametric Bayesian inference in multiple equation models

This paper outlines an approach to Bayesian semiparametric regression in multiple equation models which can be used to carry out inference in seemingly unrelated regressions or simultaneous equations models with nonparametric components. The approach treats the points on each nonparametric regression line as unknown parameters and uses a prior on the degree of smoothness of each line to ensure valid posterior inference despite the fact that the number of parameters is greater than the number of observations. We develop an empirical Bayesian approach that allows us to estimate the prior smoothing hyperparameters from the data. An advantage of our semiparametric model is that it is written as a seemingly unrelated regressions model with independent normal-Wishart prior. Since this model is a common one, textbook results for posterior inference, model comparison, prediction and posterior computation are immediately available. We use this model in an application involving a two-equation structural model drawn from the labour and returns to schooling literatures

Bayesian efficiency analysis with a flexible form: The aim cost function

Sampling;Bayesian Statistics