Structural, efficiency and income effects of direct payments: an analysis of different payment schemes for the German region 'Hohenlohe'

The objective of this paper is to work out some fundamental dynamic effects on agricultural structure, farm incomes, and efficiency that result from decoupled income payments, the transfer of payments together with a progressive payment cut. To do so, we apply the agent-based model AgriPoliS (Agri-cultural Policy Simulator). AgriPoliS is a normative spatial and dynamic model of regional agricul-tural structures that takes account of actions and interactions between a large number of individually acting farms. The model is calibrated to the region 'Hohenlohe' in Baden-Württemberg which is char-acterised by intensive livestock farming on the plains and extensive cattle and dairy farming in more remote valleys. The policy simulations show that impacts on structural change, competitiveness, and income distribution vary greatly depending on how the policy scheme is implemented. If direct pay-ments are completely decoupled from land use (no obligation to farm land) this has significant and lasting effects on the competitiveness of agriculture, structural change, farmers’ incomes and land-use.agricultural policy analysis, agent-based models, decoupling

LAND MARKETS IN AGENT BASED MODELS OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE

Replaced with revised version of paper 02/22/08.Land Economics/Use, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

WINNERS AND LOSERS OF POLICY CHANGES – WHAT IS THE ROLE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE?

In this paper several decoupling options are evaluated concerning their impact on structural change especially on farm incomes and their surviving. Therefore, the agent-based model AgriPoliS was used and extended to account the income of leaving farms. This enables the comparison of future incomes of leaving and surviving farms to find out whether leaving farms are losers or not. The disaggregated analysis of farms’ household incomes showed that leaving farmers even benefit from their decision in case that enough off-farm jobs are available. Losers are farms that would have left agriculture under conditions of the Agenda 2000. After decoupling they stay in the sector and cannot increase their income as much as under Agenda conditions. Furthermore, the analysis displayed a persistence of farms in the sector despite it would have been more profitable for them to quit agriculture.Structural change, decoupling, agent-based modeling, Common Agricultural Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Farm Management,

The agricultural policy simulator (AgriPoliS): an agent-based model to study structural change in agriculture (Version 1.0)

A central criticism common to agricultural economic modelling approaches for policy analysis is that they do not adequately take account of a number of characteristic factors of the agricultural sector. This concerns aspects like the immobility of land, heterogeneity of farms, interactions between farms, space, dynamic adjustment processes as well as dynamics of structural change. In brief, modelling the complexity of the system has not been at the centre of interest. In terms of modelling complex economic systems, an agent-based modelling approach is a suitable approach to quantitatively model and understand such systems in a more natural way. In the same way, this applies to the modelling of agricultural structures. In particular, agent-based models of agricultural structures allow for carrying out computer experiments to support a better understanding of the complexity of agricultural systems, structural change, and endogenous adjustment reactions in response to a policy change. This paper presents the agent-based model AgriPoliS (Agricultural Policy Simulator) which simultaneously considers a large number of individually acting farms, product markets, investment activity, as well as the land market, and a simple spatial representation. The ultimate objective of AgriPoliS is to study the interrelationship of rents, technical change, product prices, investments, production and policies, structural effects resulting from these, the analysis of the winners and losers of agricultural policy as well as the costs and efficiency of various policy measures. -- G E R M A N V E R S I O N: Ein oft genannter Kritikpunkt an vielen agrarökonomischen Politikanalysemodellen ist, dass diese nur ungenügend Bezug nehmen auf Aspekte wie die Immobilität von Boden, Heterogenität der Akteure, Interaktionen zwischen Betrieben, räumliche Bezüge, dynamische Anpassungsprozesse und Strukturwandel. Kurz, die Modellierung komplexer Wirkungszusammenhänge steht weniger oder nicht im Zentrum des Interesses. Agentenbasierte Modelle stellen einen Weg dar, das Verständnis komplexer ökonomischer Zusammenhänge zu verbessern bzw. zu quantifizieren. Insbesondere erlauben sie die Durchführung von einer Vielzahl von Computerexperimenten, mit denen Fragestellungen wie der Zusammenhang zwischen Politikmaßnahmen und Strukturwandel untersucht werden können. Basierend darauf, stellt dieser Beitrag das agentenbasierte Modell AgriPoliS (Agricultural Policy Simulator) vor. AgriPoliS ist ein räumlich-dynamisches Modell einer Agrarstruktur, in dem eine Vielzahl individuell abgebildeter landwirtschaftlicher Unternehmen in einer vereinfacht dargestellten Agrarregion agiert und beispielsweise um begrenzt verfügbare landwirtschaftliche Flächen konkurriert.Agent-based systems,Multi-agent systems,Policy analysis,Structural change,Simulation,Agentenbasierte Systeme,Politikanalyse,Multi-Agentensysteme,Strukturwandel,Simulation

ADJUSTMENT COSTS OF AGRI-ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY SWITCHINGS - A MULTI-AGENT APPROACH

More powerful computers, the better availability of micro-data, and the development of new modeling techniques, such as multi-agent systems, allows to analyze agricultural policies from the bottom up. We present such an approach that considers the spatial interaction of thousands of individually behaving heterogeneous farms and apply it to analyze agri-environmental policies for a selected intensive production region in the southwest of Germany.Environmental Economics and Policy,

EXPLORING THE ROLE OF SUCCESSION PATTERNS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN'S DUALISTIC FARM STRUCTURES

This paper analyses the interplay between farm adjustments on individual farms in dualistic farm structures over time using an agent-based simulation approach. In particular, explore the development of individual farms when there are off-farm work opportunities and different propensities of younger farm successors to take over the farm. Results show that despite of large numbers of individual farms leaving agriculture, the impacts on land use, production, and income are independent on different propensities to take over a farm.dualistic farm structures, individual farms, generation change, succession, Farm Management, Institutional and Behavioral Economics,

Coordination and allocation on land markets under increasing scale economies and heterogeneous actors - An experimental study

Economies of scale and scope are often not exploited in Western agriculture. A general reason is probably that various types of transaction costs limit coordination among farmers. A more specific explanation is that coordination on land markets or machinery cooperation is difficult to achieve when farmers are heterogeneous as some kind of price differentiation is necessary for a Pareto-superior solution. This paper investigates experimentally such a coordination game with heterogeneous agents using an example inspired by agricultural land markets. The experimental findings suggest that a Pareto-optimal solution may not be found when agents are heterogeneous. The findings provide evidence for market failures and cooperation deficits as reasons for unexploited economies of scale in agriculture. Our findings are consistent with coordination failures that appear to be driven by behavioural factors such as anchoring-and-adjustment, inequity aversion, and a reverse form of winner’s curse.Land Markets, Coordination and Allocation, Experimental Economics, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

Impact of the introduction of decoupled payments on functioning of the German land market: Country report of the EU tender Study on the functioning of land markets in those EU member states influenced by measures applied under the Common Agricultura

Against the background of the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 2003 the following analysis, brings into focus the responses of the agricultural sector to decoupled subsidies. In particular it addresses the impact of the Single Payment Scheme (SPS) on land sales and rent prices and therefore on farm structure. It also aims to assess the extent to which the reform advances sound and sustainable agriculture and provides incentives for marketorientated farming practices. The study is based on the analysis of statistical data and expert surveys conducted in three selected regions. -- G E R M A N V E R S I O N: Die vorliegende Studie untersucht den Einfluss der 2003 im Zuge der Reform der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) durchgeführten Entkopplung der Direktzahlungen auf den Agrarsektor in Deutschland. Besonderer Fokus der Analyse liegt auf der Auswirkung der einmaligen Zahlungen auf die Kauf- und Pachtpreise für das landwirtschaftlich genutzte Land. Des Weiteren wird die Förderung einer nachhaltigen und marktorientierten Landwirtschaft durch die GAP-Reform bewertet. Die Untersuchung basiert auf Auswertung statistischer Daten und auf Expertenbefragungen, welche in drei ausgewählten Bundesländern durchgeführt wurden.Land markets,midterm review,CAP,structural change,Bodenmärkte,Halbzeitbewertung,GAP,Strukturwandel

Does structure matter? The impact of switching the agricultural policy regime on farm structures

This paper investigates the relationship between structural change in agriculture and a policy regime switch at the regional level. Using the agent-based spatial and dynamic simulation model AgriPoliS, we simulate structural change for two different farm structures in response to a policy change. Results show that structural adjustment differs depending on the initial structure

Прецеденты снижения распространенности немецкого языка в Бразилии во второй половине XX вв. (на примере опроса учащихся школ штата Санта-Катарина)

Although functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has gained increasing importance in investigating neural substrates of anxiety disorders, less is known about the stress eliciting properties of the scanner environment itself. The aim of the study was to investigate feasibility, self-reported distress and anxiety management strategies during an fMRI experiment in a comprehensive sample of patients with panic disorder and agoraphobia (PD/AG). Within the national research network PANIC-NET, n = 89 patients and n = 90 controls participated in a multicenter fMRI study. Subjects completed a retrospective questionnaire on self-reported distress, including a habituation profile and exploratory questions about helpful strategies. Drop-out rates and fMRI quality parameters were employed as markers of study feasibility. Different anxiety measures were used to identify patients particularly vulnerable to increased scanner anxiety and impaired data quality. Three (3.5%) patients terminated the session prematurely. While drop-out rates were comparable for patients and controls, data quality was moderately impaired in patients. Distress was significantly elevated in patients compared to controls; claustrophobic anxiety was furthermore associated with pronounced distress and lower fMRI data quality in patients. Patients reported helpful strategies, including motivational factors and cognitive coping strategies. The feasibility of large-scale fMRI studies on PD/AG patients could be proved. Study designs should nevertheless acknowledge that the MRI setting may enhance stress reactions. Future studies are needed to investigate the relationship between self-reported distress and fMRI data in patient groups that are subject to neuroimaging research