Gender preferences for children revisited: new evidence from Germany

Empirical research investigating gender preferences for children and their implications for fertility decisions in advanced industrial societies is relatively scarce. Recent studies on this matter have presented ambiguous evidence regarding the existence as well as the direction such preferences can take. We use data from the most recent German General Social Survey (ALLBUS) to analyse determinants of the preferred sex composition of prospective offspring as well as the influence of the sex of previous children on the respondent´s fertility intentions and their actual behaviour at different parities. We find that the socio-demographic determinants of gender preferences differ when childless respondents are compared with parents, and that boys are preferred as a first child. Although an ultimate sex composition that includes at least one son and one daughter is generally favoured, there is no evidence for a behaviourally relevant gender preference in Germany, when higher parities are considered.Germany, fertility, sex preference

Overestimating HIV infection:

In the absence of HIV testing, how do rural Malawians assess their HIV status? In this paper, we use a unique dataset that includes respondents’ HIV status as well as their subjective likelihood of HIV infection. These data show that many rural Malawians overestimate their likelihood of current HIV infection. The discrepancy between actual and perceived status raises an important question: Why are so many wrong? We begin by identifying determinants of self-assessed HIV status, and then compare these assessments with HIV biomarker results. Finally, we ask what characteristics of individuals are associated with errors in self-assessments.accuracy of perceived HIV status, AIDS/HIV, perceived risk, Sub-Saharan Africa

The public perception and discussion of falling birth rates: the recent debate over low fertility in the popular press

Aspects of below-replacement fertility have long been debated among academics. Analyzing 437 popular newspaper and magazine articles from eleven developed countries during 1998-99, this study documents and investigates the corresponding public debate about low fertility. Despite the diversity in the debates of eleven countries, due to the countries´ different socioeconomic, political and demographic backrounds, our study finds important commonalties of the public debates about low fertility: First, countries emphasize consequences and potential interventions rather than causes in their public debate over lover fertility. Second, our study undoubtedly reveals that the public media perceives low fertility as a serious concern with mostly negative implications, despite the fact that many of the causes of low fertility are associated with social and economic progress. Third, the variety of issues and perspectives revealed in the public debate, while cohesive in general ways, invites a role for demographers in informing an accurate public discussion of low fertility, which will help form the most appropriate policy outcomes. (AUTHORS)

Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi

In this paper we present a newly-developed interactive elicitation methodology to collect probabilistic expectations in a developing country context with low levels of literacy and numeracy, and we evaluate the feasibility and success of this method for a wide range of outcomes in rural Malawi. We find that respondent's answers about subjective expectations respect basic properties of probabilities, and vary meaningfully with observable characteristics and past experience. From a substantive point of view, the elicited expectations indicate that individuals are generally aware of differential risks. For example, individuals with less income and less land feel rightly at more risk of financial distress than people with higher SES, or people who are divorced or widow feel rightly at more risk of being infected with HIV than currently married individuals. While many expectations---including also the probability of being currently infected with HIV---are well-calibrated compared to actual probabilities, mortality expectations are substantially over-estimated compared to lifetable estimates. This overestimation may lead individuals to underestimate the benefits of adopting HIV risk-reduction strategies. The skewed distribution of expectations about condom use also suggests that a small group of innovators are the forerunners in the adoption of condoms within marriage for HIV prevention.AIDS/HIV, Malawi, probabilistic expectations, risk perception, subjective expectations, Sub-Saharan Africa, survey methodology

Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe

In this paper we conduct descriptive aggregate analyses to revisit the relation between low and lowest-low period fertility on the one, and cohort fertility and key fertility-related behaviors---such as leaving the parental home, marriage and female labor force participation---on the other side. First, we identify a systematic pattern of lowest-low fertility that is characterized by a rapid delay of childbearing, a low progression probability after the first child (but not particularly low levels of first-birth childbearing), and a ``falling behind´´ in cohort fertility at relatively late ages. Second, our analyses show that the cross-country correlations in Europe between the total fertility level on the one side, and the total first marriage rate, the proportion of extramarital births and the female labor force participation rate on the other side have reversed during the period from 1975 to 1999. At the end of the 1990s there is also no longer evidence that divorce levels are negatively associated with fertility levels. Based on these analyses we conclude that the emergence of lowest-low fertility during the 1990s has been accompanied by a disruption or even a reversal of many well-known patterns that have been used to explain cross-country differences in fertility patterns.Europe, family formation, fertility

Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility

In this paper we introduce a new set of tempo-adjusted period parity progression measures in order to account for two distinct implications caused by delays in childbearing: tempo distortions imply an underestimation of the quantum of fertility in observed period data, and the fertility aging effect reduces higher parity births because the respective exposure is shifted to older ages when the probability of having another child is quite low. Our measures remove the former distortion and provide means to assess the latter aging effect. The measures therefore provide a unified toolkit of fertility indices that (a) facilitate the description and analysis of past period fertility trends in terms of synthetic cohort measures, and (b) allow the projection of the timing, level and distribution of cohort fertility conditional on a specific postponement scenario. Due to their explicit relation to cohort behavior, these measures extend and improve the existing adjustment of the total fertility rate. We apply these methods to Sweden from 1970 to 1999.cohort fertility, fertility, fertility postponement, fertility projection, low fertility, parity progression, parity progression measures, Sweden, tempo adjustment

Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:

In this paper we apply tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios (Kohler and Ortega 2002) to Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain. These countries represent three distinct demographic patterns in contemporary Europe and are of particular interest for demographers. The goal of our analyses is to (a) describe past fertility trends in these countries in terms of synthetic cohorts and (b) project the level and distribution of completed fertility in cohorts who have not finished childbearing. Our analyses suggest that the most recent period fertility patterns in these countries do not imply substantial increases in childlessness even in younger cohorts. Moreover, if these patterns prevail in the future, young cohorts would reach completed fertility levels between 1.5-1.75.cohort fertility, fertility, fertility postponement, fertility projection, low fertility, Netherlands, parity progression measures, Spain, Sweden, tempo adjustment

The impact of union formation dynamics on first births in West Germany and Italy: are there signs of convergence?

In this paper we investigate the changing impact of union formation on the transition to parenthood in West Germany and Italy using FFS data. We first draw attention to overall cohort patterns in union formation and first births and then describe the mutual relationships between union formation, first marriage, and first births. On the basis of event-history models, we then evaluate the impact of union formation behaviour on the transition to motherhood. In particular, we test whether the impact of union status has been changing for younger and older cohorts, thereby investigating whether the heterogeneous spread of non-marital childbearing is gaining relevance as we would expect from the perspective of the Second Demographic Transition. The findings from these analyses allow us to conclude that demographic behaviour is not converging from a cohort perspective. (AUTHORS)Germany/FRG, Italy

Copenhagen Consensus 2012: Challenge Paper on Population Growth

While the majority of the population is now estimated to live in regions with below replacement fertility, high fertility, poor reproductive health outcomes and relatively rapid population growth remain an important concern in several low income countries. International and national spending devoted to family planning, however, has declined significantly in recent years. Recent research has brought about a revision in the understanding of the interactions between population growth and economic development, as well as the effects of family planning programs in terms of reduced fertility, improved reproductive health outcomes and other life-cycle and intergenerational consequences. This paper discusses recent evidence about the benefits of family planning programs and the interactions between population growth and developments, and it attempts to estimate benefit-cost ratios for increased spending on family planning

Die Neue Demografie - Vortrag anläßlich der 5. Schweriner Wissenschaftstage zum Thema "Bevölkerungsrückgang in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern - Katastrophe oder Chance?" am 1. und 2. Dezember 2000

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