China’s “Great Wall” of Debt Chinese Debts and their Macroeconomic Implications. Bertelsmann Stiftung GED Focus Paper

The figures of the Chinese debts are subject to ongoing discussion among economists. The question whether the enormous rise in Chinese corporate and private debt over the past decade will lead to another global financial crisis or will be managed by the Chinese government is one of vital importance to the global economy: if China’s debt management fails, the macroeconomic effects are expected to overshadow the catastrophic effects of the 2008 financial and economic crises by large. The Economist (7 May 2016) even goes as far as to state the question not if, but when China’s debt bubble will burst. The term “China’s Great Wall of Debt” coined by Dinny McMahon (2018) to emphasize the connection between recent Chinese growth and corresponding debt seems therefore very well put

Cortical Mirror-System Activation During Real-Life Game Playing: An Intracranial Electroencephalography (EEG) Study

Analogous to the mirror neuron system repeatedly described in monkeys as a possible substrate for imitation learning and/or action understanding, a neuronal execution/observation matching system (OEMS) is assumed in humans, but little is known to what extent this system is activated in non-experimental, real-life conditions. In the present case study, we investigated brain activity of this system during natural, non-experimental motor behavior as it occurred during playing of the board game "Malefiz". We compared spectral modulations of the high-gamma band related to ipsilateral reaching movement execution and observation of the same kind of movement using electrocorticography (ECoG) in one participant. Spatially coincident activity during both conditions execution and observation was recorded at electrode contacts over the premotor/primary motor cortex. The topography and amplitude of the high-gamma modulations related to both, movement observation and execution were clearly spatially correlated over several fronto-parietal brain areas. Thus, our findings indicate that a network of cortical areas contributes to the human OEMS, beyond primary/premotor cortex including Brocas area and the temporo-parieto-occipital junction area, in real-life conditions.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure, CCN 2018 conference pape

Reducing Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions to Meet Climate Targets : A Comprehensive Quantification and Reasonable Options

A model is presented which covers the global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG emissions) and the energy consumption (fuels, electricity) in five sectors of end users, industry, transport, buildings, agriculture, and fugitive emissions. The electricity sector is also considered, but the associated GHG emissions are reallocated to the five end users. Different GHG reduction measures were calculated ranging from substitution of coal for electricity generation by renewables, electrification of road transport and buildings, restructuring of the sector industry to finally a 50% reduction of both food waste and meat consumption. To elucidate the consequences of global warming, future emission scenarios were also incorporated. One major conclusion is that the world can only reach the 2-degree climate target if electricity is only produced by renewables, and if transportation, buildings, and the industry are completely electrified by 2050. Compared to today, the electricity production by renewables will then rise by a factor of 11, and the total electricity demand by a factor of 2.4

Boarding and Alighting Time of Passengers of the Berlin Public Transport System

The overall transportation speed is a significant factor influencing the attractiveness as well as the profitability of the transit system. If a vehicle needs less time to complete a tour, it can serve more tours and thus more passengers within the same time. Likewise, the passengers benefit from a decreased in-vehicle travel time. In this paper, the factors affecting the passenger transfer time are discussed for the case of Berlin, Germany. Furthermore, the paper presents the results of a survey that focuses (i) on the average time needed for passengers to board and alight a vehicle, (ii) its deviation, and (iii) the impact of the vehicle’s occupancy and number of boarding/alighting passengers. Such data can also be used to model the boarding and alighting process at stops in transport simulations in a more realistic way. For buses and subways, more passengers standing in the door area of a vehicle are found to slow down the boarding and alighting process. The Berlin specific policy to allow the boarding of a bus only at the first door induces a significantly higher boarding time per passenger

On the lifetime of bioinformatics web services

Web services are used through all disciplines in life sciences and the online landscape is growing by hundreds of novel servers annually. However, availability varies, and maintenance practices are largely inconsistent. We screened the availability of 2396 web tools published during the past 10 years. All servers were accessed over 133 days and 318 668 index files were stored in a local database. The number of accessible tools almost linearly increases in time with highest availability for 2019 and 2020 (∼90%) and lowest for tools published in 2010 (∼50%). In a 133-day test frame, 31% of tools were always working, 48.4% occasionally and 20.6% never. Consecutive downtimes were typically below 5 days with a median of 1 day, and unevenly distributed over the weekdays. A rescue experiment on 47 tools that were published from 2019 onwards but never accessible showed that 51.1% of the tools could be restored in due time. We found a positive association between the number of citations and the probability of a web server being reachable. We then determined common challenges and formulated categorical recommendations for researchers planning to develop web-based resources. As implication of our study, we propose to develop a repository for automatic API testing and sustainability indexing

Recent Advances of Differential Privacy in Centralized Deep Learning: A Systematic Survey

Differential Privacy has become a widely popular method for data protection in machine learning, especially since it allows formulating strict mathematical privacy guarantees. This survey provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of differentially private centralized deep learning, thorough analyses of recent advances and open problems, as well as a discussion of potential future developments in the field. Based on a systematic literature review, the following topics are addressed: auditing and evaluation methods for private models, improvements of privacy-utility trade-offs, protection against a broad range of threats and attacks, differentially private generative models, and emerging application domains.Comment: 35 pages, 2 figure

School-Class Co-Ethnic and Immigrant Density and Current Smoking among Immigrant Adolescents

Although the school-class is known to be an important setting for adolescent risk behavior, little is known about how the ethnic composition of a school-class impacts substance use among pupils with a migration background. Moreover, the few existing studies do not distinguish between co-ethnic density (i.e., the share of immigrants belonging to one’s own ethnic group) and immigrant density (the share of all immigrants). This is all the more surprising since a high co-ethnic density can be expected to protect against substance use by increasing levels of social support and decreasing acculturative stress, whereas a high immigrant density can be expected to do the opposite by facilitating inter-ethnic conflict and identity threat. This study analyses how co-ethnic density and immigrant density are correlated with smoking among pupils of Portuguese origin in Luxembourg. A multi-level analysis is used to analyze data from the Luxembourg Health Behavior in School-Aged Children study (N = 4268 pupils from 283 classes). High levels of co-ethnic density reduced current smoking. In contrast, high levels of immigrant density increased it. Thus, in research on the health of migrants, the distinction between co-ethnic density and immigrant density should be taken into account, as both may have opposite effects

Displacement and Debt: The Role of Debt in Returning to Work in the Period Following the Great Recession

The onset of the housing and subsequent financial crisis in 2008 marked the steepest economic downturn in the United. States, since the Great Depression in the late 1920s and 1930s. This most recent financial crisis has been characterized by massive layoffs and displacement. Given the depth of the recent 'great' recession and its links to the finance and housing industries, both economists and policy analysts have speculated that the sticky jobless situation for many would-be workers is also related to their level of individual and/ or household debt. In contrast to a growing literature that links financial market conditions on employers' hiring capabilities, we focus on the question how household indebtedness renders households' incentives to search for and take up a new job after displacement? Using information on households' labor market and financial behavior from the Surve