Social Simulations: Improving Interdisciplinary Understanding of Scientific Positioning and Validity

Because of features that appear to be inherent in many social systems, modellers face complicated and subjective choices in positioning the scientific contribution of their research. This leads to a diversity of approaches and terminology, making interdisciplinary assessment of models highly problematic. Such modellers ideally need some kind of accessible, interdisciplinary framework to better understand and assess these choices. Existing texts tend either to take a specialised metaphysical approach, or focus on more pragmatic aspects such as the simulation process or descriptive protocols for how to present such research. Without a sufficiently neutral treatment of why a particular set of methods and style of model might be chosen, these choices can become entwined with the ideological and terminological baggage of a particular discipline. This paper attempts to provide such a framework. We begin with an epistemological model, which gives a standardised view on the types of validation available to the modeller, and their impact on scientific value. This is followed by a methodological framework, presented as a taxonomy of the key dimensions over which approaches are ultimately divided. Rather than working top-down from philosophical principles, we characterise the issues as a practitioner would see them. We believe that such a characterisation can be done 'well enough', where 'well enough' represents a common frame of reference for all modellers, which nevertheless respects the essence of the debate's subtleties and can be accepted as such by a majority of 'methodologists'. We conclude by discussing the limitations of such an approach, and potential further work for such a framework to be absorbed into existing, descriptive protocols and general social simulation texts.Social Simulation, Methodology, Epistemology, Ideology, Validation

Electrical interconnectors : market opportunities, regulatory issues, technology considerations and implications for the GB energy sector

The linking of different jurisdictions or markets via electrical interconnection is a long established means of offering enhanced security of supply to the wider electrical system. In recent years, new incentives around exploiting market price differentials and facilitating the growth of renewable energy have represented the primary motivation for new interconnector projects. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the technical options for delivering interconnectors, examines historical trends and discusses the ownership models, regulatory frameworks and market structures within which the investment case for new interconnectors must be made. Drawing on both technical and market considerations, the paper sets out the potential impact that interconnectors can have on the energy market and interested actors within connected markets before discussing in more detail the policy implications of the proposed roll out of new interconnector projects to the GB energy sector and suggests a number of factors beyond the current focus on consumer welfare could be given more prominence in the policy making around interconnector investment. The ways in which the UK's withdrawal from the European Union might impact on future and existing interconnectors in Britain is also discussed

Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme ERAMMP - Report-32: National Forest in Wales - Evidence Review

This review was commissioned by Welsh Government (WG) from the Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring and Modelling Programme (ERAMMP) to provide key evidence of potential benefits and disbenefits of woodland creation, woodland expansion and managing undermanaged woodland, to provide an evidence base to inform the development of a National Forest for Wales. During the commissioning process, WG emphasised that the evidence provided must reflect the collective views of the community by reviewing the literature in an objective way highlighting where evidence is contradictory or weak. Within the time available, evidence of causality of impacts, the likely timescales and magnitude of these impacts should be also be presented, for both positive and negative impacts of woodland expansion and management of undermanaged woodlands. This Evidence Pack should also build on the evidence put forward in the ERAMMP Sustainable Farm Scheme (SFS) (https://erammp.wales/en/resources) which included a range of assessments of the value of intervention measures which promoted trees within a landscape setting for a range of environmental, economic and social outcomes. The required rapid production of the review in four months meant an expert approach of key evidence was expected rather than a systematic review. Key topics to cover were selected, in partnership with WG, focussing on issues that could fundamentally change decision-making going forward. The final agreed list was arranged under a series of high-level subject headings, and the individual reviews published as ERAMMP Reports 33 to 38 and include; Biodiversity; Managing Undermanaged Woodland; Future-proofing our Woodland; Climate Change Mitigation; Ecosystem Services, and Economics and Natural Capital Accounting. An Integrated Assessment was also commissioned to provide a synthesis of cross-cutting themes and dependencies between topics. These ERAMMP reports are all provided as Annexes to this report

Social simulations: improving interdisciplinary understanding of scientific positioning and validity

Because of features that appear to be inherent in many social systems, modellers face complicated and subjective choices in positioning the scientific contribution of their research. This leads to a diversity of approaches and terminology, making interdisciplinary assessment of models highly problematic. Such modellers ideally need some kind of accessible, interdisciplinary framework to better understand and assess these choices. Existing texts tend either to take a specialised metaphysical approach, or focus on more pragmatic aspects such as the simulation process or descriptive protocols for how to present such research. Without a sufficiently neutral treatment of why a particular set of methods and style of model might be chosen, these choices can become entwined with the ideological and terminological baggage of a particular discipline. This paper attempts to provide such a framework. We begin with an epistemological model, which gives a standardised view on the types of validation available to the modeller, and their impact on scientific value. This is followed by a methodological framework, presented as a taxonomy of the key dimensions over which approaches are ultimately divided. Rather than working top-down from philosophical principles, we characterise the issues as a practitioner would see them. We believe that such a characterisation can be done 'well enough', where 'well enough' represents a common frame of reference for all modellers, which nevertheless respects the essence of the debate's subtleties and can be accepted as such by a majority of 'methodologists'. We conclude by discussing the limitations of such an approach, and potential further work for such a framework to be absorbed into existing, descriptive protocols and general social simulation texts

A workflow hybrid as a multi-model, multi-paradigm simulation framework

We propose that workflow software can be coupled with existing simulation frameworks (particularly agent-based ones) to provide three broad benefits: an improved modelling process due to the separation of concerns and rich scheduling syntax; interchangeable human and AI agents at minimal development cost; a common conceptual and software base for multi-model, comparative studies of the same system (including shared, distributed data visualisation). We explain these benefits, providing a proof-of-concept framework implementation and examples from the domain of electricity generation expansion plannin

Transient stability assessment of the GB transmission system with high penetrations of wind power

The predominant North-South active power flows across the border between Scotland and England are currently limited by stability considerations. With the increasing penetration of variable-speed wind power plants in northern areas of GB, there is a risk that it may be impossible to fully utilise the thermal capacity of the lines and the stability limit may be increasingly eroded. This will affect the operational flexibility, efficiency and security of the system. The study reported in this paper aims to illustrate some of the key impacts on power transfer limits through this North-South corridor in the presence of increasing levels of wind power plants on the GB transmission system. By focussing on the behaviour of a representative reduced test system following a three-phase fault occurring on one of the two double-circuits of the B6 boundary, the impacts on transient stability margins are qualitatively identified. The outputs of the project are intended to provide a basis for further detailed studies on a more realistic network model

Bayesian inferencing for wind resource characterisation

The growing role of wind power in power systems has motivated R&D on methodologies to characterise the wind resource at sites for which no wind speed data is available. Applications such as feasibility assessment of prospective installations and system integration analysis of future scenarios, amongst others, can greatly benefit from such methodologies. This paper focuses on the inference of wind speeds for such potential sites using a Bayesian approach to characterise the spatial distribution of the resource. To test the approach, one year of wind speed data from four weather stations was modelled and used to derive inferences for a fifth site. The methodology used is described together with the model employed and simulation results are presented and compared to the data available for the fifth site. The results obtained indicate that Bayesian inference can be a useful tool in spatial characterisation of win