Epidemic prediction and control in clustered populations

There has been much recent interest in modelling epidemics on networks, particularly in the presence of substantial clustering. Here, we develop pairwise methods to answer questions that are often addressed using epidemic models, in particular: on the basis of potential observations early in an outbreak, what can be predicted about the epidemic outcomes and the levels of intervention necessary to control the epidemic? We find that while some results are independent of the level of clustering (early growth predicts the level of ‘leaky’ vaccine needed for control and peak time, while the basic reproductive ratio predicts the random vaccination threshold) the relationship between other quantities is very sensitive to clustering

Household structure and infectious disease transmission

One of the central tenets of modern infectious disease epidemiology is that an understanding of heterogeneities, both in host demography and transmission, allows control to be efficiently optimized. Due to the strong interactions present, households are one of the most important heterogeneities to consider, both in terms of predicting epidemic severity and as a target for intervention. We consider these effects in the context of pandemic influenza in Great Britain, and find that there is significant local (ward-level) variation in the basic reproductive ratio, with some regions predicted to suffer 50% faster growth rate of infection than the mean. Childhood vaccination was shown to be highly effective at controlling an epidemic, generally outperforming random vaccination and substantially reducing the variation between regions; only nine out of over 10 000 wards did not obey this rule and these can be identified as demographically atypical regions. Since these benefits of childhood vaccination are a product of correlations between household size and number of dependent children in the household, our results are qualitatively robust for a variety of disease scenarios

Stress, burnout and doctors' attitudes to work are determined by personality and learning style: a twelve year longitudinal study of UK medical graduates

The study investigated the extent to which approaches to work, workplace climate, stress, burnout and satisfaction with medicine as a career in doctors aged about thirty are predicted by measures of learning style and personality measured five to twelve years earlier when the doctors were applicants to medical school or were medical students

Lessons in Failure: The Rice Growers Association Cooperative

This empirical study investigates a large California cooperative's closure and identifies lessons learned that might be useful to other cooperatives. It was found that the cooperative's directors failed to effectively supervise management. In turn, management fell short of expectations to fully evaluate complex business decisions.Agribusiness,

Excitonic spectral features in strongly-coupled organic polaritons

Starting from a microscopic model, we investigate the optical spectra of molecules in strongly-coupled organic microcavities examining how they might self-consistently adapt their coupling to light. We consider both rotational and vibrational degrees of freedom, focusing on features which can be seen in the peak in the center of the spectrum at the bare excitonic frequency. In both cases we find that the matter-light coupling can lead to a self-consistent change of the molecular states, with consequent temperature-dependent signatures in the absorption spectrum. However, for typical parameters, these effects are much too weak to explain recent measurements. We show that another mechanism which naturally arises from our model of vibrationally dressed polaritons has the right magnitude and temperature dependence to be at the origin of the observed data.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figur

James MacMillan’s Miserere: History, Compositional Elements, and A Conductor’s Guide

Scottish composer James MacMillan, born in 1959, composed choral music throughout his life but initially rose to prominence as a composer of instrumental works in the early 1990s. In the first decade of the 2000s primarily with The Strathclyde Motets MacMillan solidified his position as a preeminent composer in both choral and instrumental genres with international notoriety. MacMillan’s Roman Catholic upbringing and continuing faith have had a profound effect on his compositional style which is evident in both his instrumental and choral works. His skill in text-setting coupled with his deep faith provide a rich foundation for choral composition. This project provides contextualizing research on the subjects of MacMillan’s life, musical training, and religion as part of a methodology to begin study for performance of his 2009 Miserere. Further research concentrates on the Miserere text and its history. The concluding chapters focus on analysis and teaching, conducting, and rehearsal techniques appropriate for preparing both the conductor and the choir

Assessing the rider's seat and horse's behavior: difficulties and perspectives

correct seat and position are the basis for a good performance in horseback riding. This study aimed to measure deviations from the correct seat, test a seat improvement program (dismounted exercises), and investigate whether horse behavior was affected by the rider's seat. Five experienced trainers defined 16 seat deviations and scored the occurrence in 20 riders in a dressage test. Half the riders then carried out an individual training program; after 9 weeks, riders were again scored. The study took no video or heart-rate recordings of horses and riders. Panel members did not agree on the deviations in the rider's seat; the study detected no differences¿with the exception of improvement of backward-tilted pelvis¿between the groups. Horse behavior, classified as ¿evasive,¿ increased; horse heart rate decreased in the experimental group. Heart rates of riders in both groups decreased. Seven of 9 riders in the experimental group had the impression that the exercises improved their riding performance. There is a clear need to develop a robust system that allows trainers to objectively evaluate the rider's sea

Consumer Preferences for Locally Made Specialty Food Products Across Northern New England

Does willingness to pay a premium for local specialty food products differ between consumers in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont? Two food categories are investigated: low-end ($5) and high-end ($20) products. Premia estimates are compared across states and across base prices within states using dichotomous choice contingent valuation methods. Results suggest that the three states of northern New England have many similarities, including comparable price premia for the lower-priced good. However, there is some evidence that the premium for the higher-priced good is greater for the pooled Vermont and Maine treatment than for the New Hampshire treatment. Vermont and New Hampshire residents are willing to pay a higher premium for a $20 than for a$5 food item, while the evidence suggests that Maine residents are not.local specialty foods, willingness to pay, contingent valuation, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,