Pro-Poor Growth, Poverty and Inequality in Rural Vietnam

This study explores the effects of Vietnam's transition on the welfare of different ethnic groups in rural Vietnam. It draws on three rounds of household surveys, VHLSS 2002, 2004 and 2006. It is first observed that the pace of poverty reduction for minorities surpassed the majority over the period 2002 to 2006, although poor people were still concentrated in the minority groups. Secondly, the disparity of living standards has been widening. In particular, inequality in both the majority and minority increased over the periods. Thirdly, the study shows that the pure effect of economic growth on poverty is estimated to have been greater if inequality remained constant. It is noted that the impacts of economic growth vary depending on which ethnic group a household belongs to. Finally, it is also confirmed from regression decompositions of within inequality that the main driver of inequality is not identical among different ethnic groups. Given the diversity across ethnic groups, we can conclude that the governmental policy aiming at equal access to infrastructure and more equal distribution of assets, such as land, for ethnic minority groups would lead to more equal distribution of consumption and poverty reduction of those groups. Also, consideration of local needs of each ethnic minority group would be necessary in designing and implementing public policies given the heterogeneous socio-economic circumstances surrounding each ethnic minority group.Vietnam, Ethnic minority, Growth, Poverty, Inequality, Decomposition

Decentralization, Democracy and Allocation of Poverty Alleviation Programs in Rural India

This paper investigates the effect of the devolution of power to the village level government on the household-level allocation of poverty alleviation programs drawing upon National Sample Survey data and the Election Commission's election data. First, greater inequality in land-holdings and less competition between the two major political parties generally lead to less provision of the poverty alleviation programs. Second, the disadvantaged groups were not necessarily likely to be the primary beneficiaries of the poverty alleviation programs. Third, our results based on the natural experiment approach suggest that decentralisation did not lead to wider household access to poverty alleviation programmes during the 1990s. Our results imply the possibility that the power and resources were captured by the local elite after decentralisation, that is, decentralization did not necessarily contribute to the improvement of the welfare of the socially disadvantaged groups.Decentralization, Democracy, Poverty Alleviation Programs, Poverty, IRDP (Integrated Rural Development Programme), RPW (Rural Public Works), India

Poverty Dynamics of Households in Rural China: Identifying Multiple Pathways for Poverty Transition

The objective of our study is to identify pattern and causes of households' transitions in and out of poverty using the long household panel data on rural China in the period 1989-2009. We propose a discrete-time multi-spell duration model that not only corrects for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across transitions and various destinations within the transition, but also addresses the endogeneity due to dynamic selection associated with household's livelihood strategies. Duration dependence is generally found to be negative for both poverty exit and re-entry. The household who chose either farming or out-migration as a main livelihood strategy was more likely to escape from this persistent poverty than those who took local non-agricultural employment, while the role of social protection, such as health insurance, was not universally good for alleviating chronic poverty. Overall, the present study emphasises the central role of agriculture in helping the chronically poor escape from poverty.Poverty transition, Discrete-time duration model, Correlated unobserved heterogeneity, Dynamic selection, Rural China

Fertility, Parental Education and Development in India: New Evidence from National Household Survey Data

This paper empirically investigates the determinants of fertility drawing upon large household data sets in India, namely NSS and NFHS over the period 1992-2006. Broadly similar and consistent results are found for the two surveys for different years. We have found a negative and significant association between the number of children and mother' s education. Both direct and indirect effects are observed for mother's education which not just directly reduces fertility but also increases mother's potential wages or opportunity costs which would deter her from having a baby. Father's education became increasingly important in reducing fertility in the last two rounds.Fertility, Parental Education, NSS (National Sample Survey), NFHS (National Family Health Survey), India, Asia

Microfinance and Household Poverty Reduction: New evidence from India

The objective of the present study is to examine whether household access to microfinance reduces poverty. Using national household data from India, treatment effects model is employed to estimate the poverty-reducing effects of MFIs loans for productive purposes, such as investment in agriculture or non-farm businesses on household poverty levels. These models take into account the endogenous binary treatment effects and sample selection bias associated with access to MFIs. Despite some limitations, such as those arising from potential unobservable important determinants of access to MFIs, significant positive effect of MFI productive loans on multidimensional welfare indicator has been confirmed. The significance of treatment "effects" coefficients have been verified by both Tobit and Propensity Score Matching models. In addition, we found that loans for productive purposes were more important for poverty reduction in rural than in urban areas. However in urban areas, simple access to MFIs has larger average poverty-reducing effects than the access to loans from MFIs for productive purposes. This leads to exploring service delivery opportunities that provide an additional avenue to monitor the usage of loans to enhance the outreach.Microfinance, Poverty, Evaluation, India, Propensity Score Matching

Measuring Households' Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic and Covariate Shocks – the case of Bangladesh

The paper examines the level and sources of vulnerability in rural Bangladesh using a household survey. We use a simple two-level random intercept model to estimate expected mean and variance in consumption as well as to decompose the variance into idiosyncratic and covariate components. Our results indicate that both idiosyncratic and covariate shocks have considerable impact on household's vulnerability and idiosyncratic shocks seem to have greater impact on household's consumption vulnerability than the covariate shocks. Furthermore, idiosyncratic shocks appear to have a relatively higher impact on relatively well endowed (i.e. in terms of human capital, land holdings, activity status etc.), well off households and covariate shocks seem to have a relatively higher impact on poorer, less educated, household's vulnerability. Our results also reveal that rural vulnerability in Bangladesh is mainly poverty induced rather than risk induced. Around 78 per cent all who are vulnerable is accounted for by low expected mean consumption and only 22 per cent of them are due to high consumption volatility. Overall vulnerability in rural areas is estimated to be 50 per cent. The categorization of poverty into transient and chronic poverty is even more insightful. The study finds that those without education or agricultural households are likely to be the most vulnerable. The geographical diversity of vulnerability is considerable. It is suggested that ex ante measures to prevent households from becoming poor as well as ex post measures to alleviate those already in poverty should be combined.Poverty, Vulnerability, Risks, Poverty dynamics, Bangladesh

Does Microfinance Reduce Poverty in Bangladesh? New Evidence from Household Panel Data

The purpose of the present study is to examine whether microfinance reduces poverty in Bangladesh drawing upon the nationally representative household panel data covering 4 rounds from 1997 to 2005. A special attention was drawn to the issue of endogeneity by applying treatment effects model and propensity score matching (PSM) for the participants and non-participants of microfinance programmes. It has been found by treatment effects model applied to panel data that the simple household access to general loans from microfinance institutions (MFIs) did not increase per capita household income significantly, but household access to loans for productive purposes from MFIs significantly increased per capita household income. This suggests that the purpose and monitoring of how clients use the loans is important for increasing household income, and thus decreasing household poverty. However, the application of treatment effects model and PSM to each cross-sectional component of the panel data shows that the poverty reducing effect of MFI on poverty was significantly reduced over the years. This suggests the importance of more attention to the primary purpose of microcredit, that is, poverty reduction, and also to monitoring loan usages in the situations where the profits of MFIs became increasingly squeezed and their activities became more commercialised under severe competitions among MFIs in recent years.microfinance, MFI (microfinance institution), Microcredit, Poverty, Bangladesh

Role of Agriculture in Achieving MDG 1 in Asia and the Pacific Region

This paper examines whether agricultural growth through public expenditure, ODA or investment will improve significantly the prospects of achieving MDG 1 of halving poverty in Asia and the Pacific Region. As more than a few countries in this Region recorded impressive economic growth in the early years of the present decade, the case for the widely used poverty threshold of US$1.25 per day (at 2005 PPP) for assessing progress towards MDG1 is not so compelling now. Accordingly, the present assessment uses two poverty thresholds: US$2 per day and US$1.25 per day (both at 2005 PPP). Our analysis, based on country panel data, confirms robustly that increases in public agricultural expenditure, agricultural ODA, agricultural investment, or fertiliser use (as a proxy for technology), accelerate agricultural and GDP growth. Consequently, the headcount and depth of poverty indices are reduced substantially. Our simulation results show that, for halving the headcount index at US$2 per day, Asia and the Pacific region as a whole would need in 2007-13 a 56% increase in annual agricultural ODA, a 28% increase in agricultural expenditure, a 23% increase in fertiliser use or a 24% increase in agricultural investment. Aggregation of the simulation results for various groups reveals that countries in low income group, with a low level of macro governance or institutional quality, or with low ease of doing business would need larger increase in agricultural ODA, expenditure or investment to halve poverty. Although the share of agriculture in GDP has declined, our analysis reinforces the case for channelling a substantially larger flow of resources not just for accelerating growth but also for achieving the more ambitious MDG1. A policy dilemma, however, is the trade-off between institutional quality and resource transfers. National governments and donors must reflect deeply on triggers for institutional reforms and mechanisms that would ensure larger outlays for agriculture and their allocation between rural infrastructure and sustainable technologies.Millennium Development Goal, Poverty, Agriculture, ODA, Investment, Public Expenditure, Asia, Panel Data, Simulations

Food Price Surges and Poverty in Urban Colombia: New Evidence from Household Survey Data

The present study simulates the impacts of price surges in 2006-2008 on household poverty in the main Colombian cities. It is found that the price surges increased both extreme and moderate poverty in urban areas in short and medium terms. However, the magnitude of poverty rise is not homogeneous geographically or by household types – e.g., the poorest or less educated households were more badly affected than the wealthier or educated households. We suggest 'demographic targeting' or 'geographical targeting' as a policy option that selects and supports poor households by demographic characteristics or by geographical areas according to the degree of vulnerability. Protecting those households from food price shocks would be still important now given that rising and volatile food prices have continued due to erratic climate patterns and demand and supply conditions along with economic and financial crisis.Food price surges, Urban poverty, Colombia