Bank Deposits Flows and Textual Sentiment: When an ECB President's speech is not just a speech

We investigate whether the so-called textual sentiment has any impact on European depositors’ behavior to withdraw their deposits. After the manual collection of monthly speeches of the president of the European Central Bank (ECB hereafter) we apply textual analysis techniques following the methodology of Loughran and McDonald (2011) and we construct two alternative sentiments able to capture the perceived uncertainty. We find that high frequency of uncertainty and weak modal words in the monthly speeches of the president of the ECB leads both households and non-financial corporations to withdraw their bank deposits. We also find that these textual sentiments have greater impact on non-financial corporations. These findings suggest that regulators and policy makers could expand the already existing early-warning systems for the banking sector by taking into consideration the frequency of uncertainty and weak modal words in the ECB president’s speeches

Textual Information and IPO Underpricing: A Machine Learning Approach

This study examines the predictive power of textual information from S-1 filings in explaining IPO underpricing. Our empirical approach differs from previous research, as we utilize several machine learning algorithms to predict whether an IPO will be underpriced, or not. We analyze a large sample of 2,481 U.S. IPOs from 1997 to 2016, and we find that textual information can effectively complement traditional financial variables in terms of prediction accuracy. In fact, models that use both textual data and financial variables as inputs have superior performance compared to models using a single type of input. We attribute our findings to the fact that textual information can reduce the ex-ante valuation uncertainty of IPO firms, thus leading to more accurate estimates

Machine Learning in U.S. Bank Merger Prediction: A Text-Based Approach

This paper investigates the role of textual information in a U.S. bank merger prediction task. Our intuition behind this approach is that text could reduce bank opacity and allow us to understand better the strategic options of banking firms. We retrieve textual information from bank annual reports using a sample of 9,207 U.S. bank-year observations during the period 1994-2016. To predict bidders and targets, we use textual information along with financial variables as inputs to several machine learning models. Our key findings suggest that: (1) when textual information is used as a single type of input, the predictive accuracy of our models is similar, or even better, compared to the models using only financial variables as inputs, and (2) when we jointly use textual information and financial variables as inputs, the predictive accuracy of our models is substantially improved compared to models using a single type of input. Therefore, our findings highlight the importance of textual information in a bank merger prediction task

Using textual analysis to identify merger participants: Evidence from the U.S. banking industry

In this paper, we use the sentiment of annual reports to gauge the likelihood of a bank to participate in a merger transaction. We conduct our analysis on a sample of annual reports of listed U.S. banks over the period 1997 to 2015, using the Loughran and McDonald’s lists of positive and negative words for our textual analysis. We find that a higher frequency of positive (negative) words in a bank’s annual report relates to a higher probability of becoming a bidder (target). Our results remain robust to the inclusion of bank-specific control variables in our logistic regressions

Machine learning in bank merger prediction: A text-based approach

This paper investigates the role of textual information in a U.S. bank merger prediction task. Our intuition behind this approach is that text could reduce bank opacity and allow us to understand better the strategic options of banking firms. We retrieve textual information from bank annual reports using a sample of 9,207 U.S. bank-year observations during the period 1994-2016. To predict bidders and targets, we use textual information along with financial variables as inputs to several machine learning models. We find that when we jointly use textual information and financial variables as inputs, the performance of our models is substantially improved compared to models using a single type of input. Furthermore, we find that the performance improvement due to the inclusion of text is more noticeable in predicting future bidders, a task which is less explored in the relevant literature. Therefore, our findings highlight the importance of textual information in a bank merger prediction task

Textual Information and IPO Underpricing: A Machine Learning Approach

This study examines the predictive power of textual information from S-1 filings in explaining IPO underpricing. Our empirical approach differs from previous research, as we utilize several machine learning algorithms to predict whether an IPO will be underpriced, or not. We analyze a large sample of 2,481 U.S. IPOs from 1997 to 2016, and we find that textual information can effectively complement traditional financial variables in terms of prediction accuracy. In fact, models that use both textual data and financial variables as inputs have superior performance compared to models using a single type of input. We attribute our findings to the fact that textual information can reduce the ex-ante valuation uncertainty of IPO firms, thus leading to more accurate estimates