Agent-Based Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis by Experimental Design and Metamodelling: An Application to Modelling Regional Structural Change

This paper presents the application of the sensitivity analysis techniques Design of Experiments (DOE) and metamodelling to the agent-based model AgriPoliS, which is a spatial and dynamic simulation model of regional structural change. DOE and metamodelling provide a more systematic analysis of results of complex simulation models. When summarising the results, it becomes clear that interest rates, technical change and managerial ability influence average economic land rent the most.simulation, design of experiments, metamodelling, structural change, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, C9, C15,

DOING POLICY IN THE LAB! OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE USE OF MODEL-BASED POLICY ANALYSIS FOR COMPLEX DECISION-MAKING

For models to have an impact on policy-making, they need to be used. Exploring the relationships between policy models, model uptake and policy dynamics is the core of this article. What particular role can policy models play in the analysis and design of policies? Which factors facilitate (inhibit) the uptake of models by policy-makers? What are possible pathways to further develop modelling approaches to better meet the challenges facing agriculture today? In this paper, we address these issues from three different points of view, each of which should shed some light on the subject. The first point of view discusses models in the framework of complex adaptive systems and uncertainty. The second point of view looks at the dynamic interplay between policies and models using the example of modelling in agricultural economics. The third point of view addresses conditions for a successful application of models in policy analysis.modelling, complexity, participatory modelling, policy analysis, model use, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Agricultural policies and farm structures - agent-based simulation and application to EU-policy reform

The development of competitive and efficient agricultural structures has been one of the central goals of agricultural policy making in addition to ensuring a fair standard of living for farmers. To achieve these goals, the agricultural sector in most industrialised nations has long been the subject of government interven­tions. However, many agricultural policies have worked counteractively to these goals by creating distortions in the use of resources. Against this background, the emergence of new and innovative modelling methods such as agent- based models, in addition to ever-in­creasing computing capacities has offered new possibilities to model adjustment reactions and to quantify the impact of agri­cultural policies. This thesis takes up these new methodologies and applies them to the modelling and evaluation of agricultural policy impacts on regional struc­tural change. At the centre of the thesis is the development of the spatial and dynamic simula­tion model of regional agricultural structures AgriPoliS (Agricultural Policy Simulator). The core of AgriPoliS is the understanding of a regional agricultural structure as an agent-based system, i.e., a system of interacting heterogeneous agents. The thesis contributes to a deeper un­derstanding of struc­tural change dynamics and factors causing structural change. It is studied whether and to what extent policy changes can facilitate structural adjustment towards a more efficient and competitive agricultural structure.agent-based modelling, structural change, agricultural policy, simulation, efficiency

Agricultural policies and farm structures: agent-based modelling and application to EU-policy reform

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Structural, efficiency and income effects of direct payments: an analysis of different payment schemes for the German region 'Hohenlohe'

The objective of this paper is to work out some fundamental dynamic effects on agricultural structure, farm incomes, and efficiency that result from decoupled income payments, the transfer of payments together with a progressive payment cut. To do so, we apply the agent-based model AgriPoliS (Agri-cultural Policy Simulator). AgriPoliS is a normative spatial and dynamic model of regional agricul-tural structures that takes account of actions and interactions between a large number of individually acting farms. The model is calibrated to the region 'Hohenlohe' in Baden-Württemberg which is char-acterised by intensive livestock farming on the plains and extensive cattle and dairy farming in more remote valleys. The policy simulations show that impacts on structural change, competitiveness, and income distribution vary greatly depending on how the policy scheme is implemented. If direct pay-ments are completely decoupled from land use (no obligation to farm land) this has significant and lasting effects on the competitiveness of agriculture, structural change, farmers’ incomes and land-use.agricultural policy analysis, agent-based models, decoupling

The agricultural policy simulator (AgriPoliS): an agent-based model to study structural change in agriculture (Version 1.0)

A central criticism common to agricultural economic modelling approaches for policy analysis is that they do not adequately take account of a number of characteristic factors of the agricultural sector. This concerns aspects like the immobility of land, heterogeneity of farms, interactions between farms, space, dynamic adjustment processes as well as dynamics of structural change. In brief, modelling the complexity of the system has not been at the centre of interest. In terms of modelling complex economic systems, an agent-based modelling approach is a suitable approach to quantitatively model and understand such systems in a more natural way. In the same way, this applies to the modelling of agricultural structures. In particular, agent-based models of agricultural structures allow for carrying out computer experiments to support a better understanding of the complexity of agricultural systems, structural change, and endogenous adjustment reactions in response to a policy change. This paper presents the agent-based model AgriPoliS (Agricultural Policy Simulator) which simultaneously considers a large number of individually acting farms, product markets, investment activity, as well as the land market, and a simple spatial representation. The ultimate objective of AgriPoliS is to study the interrelationship of rents, technical change, product prices, investments, production and policies, structural effects resulting from these, the analysis of the winners and losers of agricultural policy as well as the costs and efficiency of various policy measures. -- G E R M A N V E R S I O N: Ein oft genannter Kritikpunkt an vielen agrarökonomischen Politikanalysemodellen ist, dass diese nur ungenügend Bezug nehmen auf Aspekte wie die Immobilität von Boden, Heterogenität der Akteure, Interaktionen zwischen Betrieben, räumliche Bezüge, dynamische Anpassungsprozesse und Strukturwandel. Kurz, die Modellierung komplexer Wirkungszusammenhänge steht weniger oder nicht im Zentrum des Interesses. Agentenbasierte Modelle stellen einen Weg dar, das Verständnis komplexer ökonomischer Zusammenhänge zu verbessern bzw. zu quantifizieren. Insbesondere erlauben sie die Durchführung von einer Vielzahl von Computerexperimenten, mit denen Fragestellungen wie der Zusammenhang zwischen Politikmaßnahmen und Strukturwandel untersucht werden können. Basierend darauf, stellt dieser Beitrag das agentenbasierte Modell AgriPoliS (Agricultural Policy Simulator) vor. AgriPoliS ist ein räumlich-dynamisches Modell einer Agrarstruktur, in dem eine Vielzahl individuell abgebildeter landwirtschaftlicher Unternehmen in einer vereinfacht dargestellten Agrarregion agiert und beispielsweise um begrenzt verfügbare landwirtschaftliche Flächen konkurriert.Agent-based systems,Multi-agent systems,Policy analysis,Structural change,Simulation,Agentenbasierte Systeme,Politikanalyse,Multi-Agentensysteme,Strukturwandel,Simulation

Structural change and farm labour adjustments in a dualistic farm structure: a simulation study for the region Nitra in southwest Slovakia

This Discussion Paper explores interactions between structural impediments to labour adjustment, specific labour adjustment patterns and the impacts of differing economical and political frames. Based on the agent-based simulation framework AgriPoliS adjusted to the agricultural structure of the region Nitra in southwest Slovakia, we carry out a range of simulation experiments on the possible interplay between off-farm job opportunities for farm operators, growth in other sectors of the economy, and policy impacts. Results show that free movement of labour between sectors leads to strong adjustments in the agricultural labour force and benefits farms with a growth potential. EU Accession and a subsequent decoupling of payments lead farms to stay in business that would have otherwise left the sector. These farms, however, have a different mix of family and hired labour. -- G E R M A N V E R S I O N: Im vorliegenden Discussion Paper werden die Wirkungszusammenhänge auf landwirtschaftlichen Arbeitsmärkten, die auf ihnen auftretenden Hemmnisse hinsichtlich einer optimalen Allokation des Faktors Arbeit und die spezifischen Anpassungsprozesse unter sich wandelnden politischen und ökonomischen Rahmenbedingungen analysiert. Untersuchungsgegenstand ist die Region Nitra im Südwesten der Slovakei. Die dortige Agrarstruktur wurde zum Zweck der dynamischen Abbildung von Strukturveränderungsprozessen im agentenbasierten Model AgriPoliS rekonstruiert. Mit diesem wurden anschließend einerseits Simulationen zur Abschätzung des Einflusses von variierenden Opportunitätskosten des Faktors Arbeit durchgeführt, des Weiteren wurden die agrarstrukturellen Auswirkungen im Wechselspiel von volkswirtschaftlichem Wachstum und unterschiedlich gestalteten politischen Rahmenbedingungen untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich unter der Annnahme eines flexiblen, idealisierten Arbeitsmarktes starke Veränderungen in der Agrarstruktur und hinsichtlich des Einsatzes von Arbeitskräften im Landwirtschaftssektor ergeben würden. Derartige Bedingungen würden insbesondere überdurchschnittlich erfolgreichen Betrieben mit vorhandenem Wachstumspotential zum Vorteil gereichen. Sofern diese Wachstumsbetriebe aus der Gruppe der Einzelunternehmen stammen, zeigt sich, dass diese den steigenden Bedarf an Arbeitskräften durch Fremdarbeitskräfte decken würden. Der Beitritt zur EU und die damit einhergehende Implementierung eines Direktzahlungsregimes bewirkt, dass Betriebe, die ohne die neu geschaffenen Anreize aus dem Sektor ausgeschieden wären, kurz- bis mittelfristig in diesem verbleiben und den Strukturwandel hemmen beziehungsweise verlangsamen.Labour input,structural change,agent-based modelling,agricultural policy analysis,Landwirtschaftliche Beschäftigung,Strukturwandel,Agentenbasierte Modellierung,Politikanalyse

Agriculture in the face of changing markets, institutions and policies: Challenges and strategies

Since the late 1980s, agriculture in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) has been under considerable adjustment pressure due to changing political, economic and institutional environments. These changes have been linked to the transition process, as well as the ongoing integration into the European Union and the world market. Reduced subsidies, increased environmental and food quality demands, as well as structural changes in the supply, processing and food retailing sector call for major structural adjustments and the improvement of farmers' managerial abilities. Though such changes always carry significant threats to farms, they also offer new opportunities for the farms' entrepreneurial engagement. Upcoming changes in the agricultural environment and their possible consequences for farm structures across Europe are thus still timely subjects. The objective of the IAMO Forum 2006 is to contribute to the success of agriculture in the CEECs, as well as their neighboring countries, in today's increasingly competitive environment. Concrete questions the conference focuses on are: What are the most suitable farm organizations, cooperative arrangements and contractual forms? How to improve efficiency and productivity? Where do market niches lie and what are the new product demands? CONTENT: Preface; Jarmila Curtiss, Alfons Balmann, Kirsti Dautzenberg, Kathrin Happe. The success of gradualism: Empirical evidence from China's agricultural reform; Jikun Huang, Johan F. M. Swinnen, Scott Rozelle. Land reform and farm restructuring in Moldova, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan: A stocktaking; David Sedik. Land market developments, imperfections, and effects in transition countries; Johan F. M. Swinnen, Pavel Ciaian, Liesbet Vranken. Farmland markets, boom/bust cycles, and farm size; Charles B. Moss, Andrew Schmitz. Duality of farm structure in transition agriculture: The case of Moldova; Zvi Lerman, Dragos Cimpoies. Organizational restructuring of the agrarian sector in Bulgaria during the pre-accession period; Julia M. Doitchinova, Ivan St. Kanchev, Albena Miteva. Governance of Bulgarian farming - Modes, efficiency, impact of EU accession; Hrabrin Bachev. Leadership may have a decisive influence on the successful transition of production cooperatives - A social capital approach; Csaba Forgács. Contractual arrangement and enforcement in transition agriculture: Theory and evidence from China; Hongdong Guo. Contractrual relationships in the Hungarian horticultural sector; Imre Ferto. Contract farming in China: Perspectives of smallholders; Hongdong Guo, Robert W. Jolly, Jianhua Zhu. Are macro policies adjusted to institutional arrangements at the micro level? Some evidence from Polish Agriculture during transition; Jan Falkowski, Dominika Milczarek. The Austrian private foundation as a legal form in farm management, with special emphasis on tax issues; Hermann Peyerl, Günter Breuer. Credit as a tool of integration between the Polish farms and buyers of their products; Alina Danilowska. Who, why and how: Problems of farmers' interest representation in Poland; Aldona Zawojska. How competitive is milk production in the Central and Eastern European countries in comparison to Western Europe? Mikhail Ramanovich, Torsten Hemme. Production and trade of animal products in selected ECO countries; Farhad Mirzaei, Olaf Heidelbach. European agriculture without direct payments - A partial equilibrium analysis; Oliver Balkhausen, Martin Banse. Measuring the degree of market power in the Ukrainian milk processing; Oleksandr Perekhozhuk, Michael Grings. Determinants of foreign direct investments in the food processing industry: An empirical analysis for Ukraine; Oksana Luka. Allocative efficiency of corporate farms in the Leningrad region; David Epstein. Pathways towards efficient levels of machinery investments needed for the sustainable development of arable farms in Bulgaria; Nikolay Naydenov. Small-scale farming in Romania - Shadow prices and efficiency; Johannes Sauer, Borbala Balint. How large is the marginal product of land in the Moscow region? Natalia Il'ina, Nikolay Svetlov. Spatial price transmission on the Turkish wheat market - An initial application; Enno-Burghard Weitzel, Ahmet Bayaner. Farm to retail price transmission on the pork market: A German-Hungarian comparison; Lajos Zoltán Bakucs, Imre Ferto, Heinrich Hockmann, Oleksandr Perekhozhuk. The nature of selected price transmissions in the agri-food chain and their consequences; Lukáš Čechura. Labor mobility in transition countries and the impact of institutions; Thomas Herzfeld, Thomas Glauben. Choosing to migrate or migrating to choose: Migration and labor choice in Albania; Carlo Azzarri, Gero Carletto, Benjamin Davis, Alberto Zezza. Rural non-farm employment in Ukraine; Oleg Nivyevskiy, Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel. Opportunities and challenges for farm household livelihood strategies: Pluriactivity in Finland and the UK; Claire Newton. Territorial aspects of enterprise development in remote rural areas of Europe; Zuzana Bednarikova, Tomas Doucha, Zdenek Travnicek. New policy approaches for rural development: The experience of two case regions in Eastern Germany; Theodor Fock --

ADJUSTMENT COSTS OF AGRI-ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY SWITCHINGS - A MULTI-AGENT APPROACH

More powerful computers, the better availability of micro-data, and the development of new modeling techniques, such as multi-agent systems, allows to analyze agricultural policies from the bottom up. We present such an approach that considers the spatial interaction of thousands of individually behaving heterogeneous farms and apply it to analyze agri-environmental policies for a selected intensive production region in the southwest of Germany.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Förderung der Entwicklung des ländlichen Raumes in Polen und Bayern

In diesem Arbeitspapier werden das polnische Programm für die Entwicklung ländlicher Räume (PROW) und sein deutsches Gegenstück Bayerisches Zukunftsprogramm Agrarwirtschaft und Ländliche Räume (BayZAL) analysiert. Das Hauptziel der Bearbeitung ist der Vergleich der Ziele und Instrumente für die Förderung der Landwirtschaft und ländlichen Räume. Im Mittelpunkt stehen dabei die Schwerpunkte und die wichtigsten Maßnahmen der Programme. Die Analyse ergab, dass die untersuchten Programme Unterschiede in der Finanzierung aufweisen. Diese offenbaren sich sowohl in den Schwerpunkten als auch in der Förderung für bestimmte Maßnahmen. In beiden Programmen herrschen unterschiedliche Philosophien bezüglich der Finanzierung konkreter Maßnahmen und Schwerpunkte. Sie folgen aus den Differenzen in der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und der Qualität des örtlichen Humankapitals. Beide Programme sind trotz ihrer Bezeichnungen nicht nur auf die ländliche Entwicklung ausgerichtet, sondern auch auf die Förderung der örtlichen Landwirtschaft. Trotz der postulierten Änderungen im neuen Paradigma zur Förderung ländlicher Räume weisen die hier analysierten Programme weiterhin eine Schwerpunktsetzung im Bereich des Sektors der Landwirtschaft auf. -- E N G L I S H V E R S I O N: This paper compares the polish Programme for Rural Development (PROW) and the Bavarian counterpart (BayZAL). The focus is on comparing objectives and Instruments. The different development axes are at the centre of the analysis. The two programmes differ with regard to funding. The programmes are based on differing philosophies concerning the funding of diferent measures. These are due to differences in economic development and the quality of the human capital in rural areas. Both programmes emphasise measures related to agriculture despite of the claim to target at the whole rural area.Entwicklung ländlicher Räume,vergleichende Analyse,Polen,Bayern,Rural development,comparative analysis,Poland,Bavaria