Koruna Exchange Rate Turbulence in May 1997

The study has been written by the team of the CNB experts in order to provide evidence about the exchange-rate turbulence of koruna in 1997. First, it provides analysis of the root causes of the exchange rate turbulence in May 1997. Secondly, it takes an in-depth look at the attempts to solve the problem of turbulence, from the CNB strategy in the first days, the escalation, up to and including the changes in the exchange rate regime and the rationale behind these changes. Finally, it concentrates on the eventual easing of the turbulence and the CNB's strategy aimed at interest rate landing.exchange rate crisis turbulence Czech koruna 1997

Inflation targeting in the UK: Lessons for the Czech Republic

The paper tries to derive lessons from the UK experience with inflation targeting (IT) for the Czech monetary policy. Reasons for introducing the IT in both countries have been very similar. After intermediate targets failed, both central banks searched for a new strategy. When implementing the IT scheme, their approaches have been very similar although in some cases different tools have been implemented in order to overcome generally recognized problems. For example, flexibility has been gained by reduction in targeted index in the Czech case while explicit exemptions have been introduced in the UK case. The UK experience with the IT shows that inflation might be reduced towards targeted level faster than expected. Some other policy dilemmas from the UK experience appear relevant for the Czech central bank. For example, due to exchange-rate appreciation, domestically produced inflation might exceed aggregate inflation. The paper also concentrates on role of forecasting in the IT framework.Czech inflation targeting strategy

Estimating the FEER for the Czech Economy

When currency turbulences hit the Czech crown in May 1997, the research presented in this paper had been nearly finished. It tried to contribute to the discussion of sustainability of external development of the Czech economy by comparing signals given by a set of indicators to signals implied by the estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rate for the Czech crown. Interestingly, the method of indicators did not give an unambiguous answer. Specifically, when applied on the Czech data, debt as well as solvency indicators did not imply a danger of external crisis. Financial indicators with a shorter-time horizon did send some warning signals. Indicators of competitiveness watched by large international investors considered the Czech crown to be overvalued since 1995. In order to gain more decisive conclusion on the danger of external crisis, the structural approach was employed. The model simulations of the FEER indicated that the Czech crown became overvalued in 1996 with respect to the central parity of the exchange-rate band. This conclusion was quite robust taking into account behavior of both the real economy as well as decisive external financial flows. The Czech experience with currency turbulences provided an unintentional measure on how good the warning indicators were. The FEER methodology was able to conclude that there was a need for a policy shift in the end of 1996 although it did not give the clear warning that the exchange-rate regime itself was not sustainable.fundamental real exchange rate czech

Targeting Inflation under Uncertainty: Policy Makers' Perspective

Monetary policy makers need to build two pillars for their inflation targeting strategy. Firstly, a methodology for producing the central forecast should be developed, since the whole decision process is more easily organised around a model forecast. Secondly, a methodology for dealing with uncertainties is equally important, because a poor evaluation of uncertainties can significantly reduce the quality of monetary policy decisions. Reflecting the further progress of the methodological debate inside the CNB, this paper aims to provide suggestions to policy makers as to which methods could be used to assess uncertainty during the monetary policy decision process. Suggestions for each stage of the process are summarised in the final chapter. These take into account the findings of surveys of three very distinct sources - the economic literature on monetary policy under uncertainty, the managerial literature on decision analysis, and the real-life strategies of five central banks. The lessons from these three surveys are presented in separate chapters.Inflation targeting, uncertainty, decision analysis, pay-off matrix.

The transmission mechanism of monetary policy at the beginning of the third millennium

In last decade, three important challenges – the introduction of new strategies for monetary policy, the observed differences in anatomy of financial crisis between developed and emerging economies, and the emergence of the EMU – gave rise to new focus of debate about transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Three stages of transmission have been distinguished more clearly. The emphasis has been given to several transmission channels that had not been in the core of the previous debate. The differences in transmission mechanism of monetary policy across countries have been analyzed, and consequently, more attention has been paid to risks when deriving lessons from one country experience for another economy. An overview of the theoretical foundations, three main stages and channels of transmission mechanism provides background for illustrations of cross-country differences. The specific problems of transmission mechanism of monetary policy in emerging economies are discussed in more detail.Transmission mechanism Monetary policy Emerging economies

Methods Available to Monetary Policy Makers to Deal with Uncertainty

Three sources – research on monetary policy under uncertainty, the managerial literature, and the real-life strategies of five inflation targeters – have been used to survey methods that are available to monetary policy makers to deal with uncertainty. The methods have been compared within a framework that is based on a decision matrix. The comparative framework has been designed in order to encompass different representations of uncertainty employed by various central banks. The results of comparative analysis suggest that central banks use models, intuition, judgement as well as traditional managerial methods to deal with uncertainty. This finding helps understanding why economic research cannot fully explain differences between monetary policy actions and outcomes of model simulations. The results of the comparative analysis also suggest that central banks have not so far fully utilised the whole spectrum of methods available to them. Economic research, other banks’ strategies as well as decision analysis may be interesting sources of inspiration when designing the decision-making process. It is emphasised that central banks introducing inflation targeting should pay equal attention to both building their forecasting models as well as selecting methods to deal with uncertainty. In the case of emerging economies where uncertainty can be much higher than in advanced economies, neglecting uncertainty may increase probability of policy errors significantly.Inflation targeting Uncertainty Decision matrix Survey of methods

The Euro – When and how: three perspectives

In view of the institutional and economic magnitude of Eurozone enlargement, the effects on EU member states – old members as well as new – may in no way be taken lightly. It is, therefore, important to repeatedly confront the issue: “When and how to introduce the euro”. In essence, there are two scenarios for the timing of Eurozone enlargement: “rapid and extensive” or “gradual and slower”. The article presents three different perspectives for looking at both problems: the perspective of accession economies, the European perspective, and the standpoint of researchers who tried to contribute the results of their empirical studies to the overall discussion.Enlargement Euro area Accession countries Monetary policy

Costs and Benefits of Monetary Disintegration:The Czech-Slovak Case

In 1992, the political dissolution of Czechoslovakia highlighted the problem of designing monetary disintegration for two interdependent republics. This paper weighs costs and benefits of the gradual approach to monetary disintegration that was applied in the Czech-Slovak case. The analysis suggests that the careful design with two intermediate stages was superior to a longer maintaining of a common currency or a sudden monetary disintegration. The newly established currencies inherited credibility of the Czechoslovak crown although their external characteristics differed in the first two years of their existence. Moreover, the economic disintegration was not induced and the newly gained independence in monetary and exchange-rate policies was realized to respond to asymmetric economic problems.Monetary union Separation of Currencies Czechoslovakia

Hits and Misses: Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting (Introduction)

The first 10 years of Czech Republic's inflation targeting regime have been remarkable by the persistent undershooting of the inflation targets. This article is an introduction to a special issue aimed at analyzing the factors of the undershooting. The articles in this issue explore the following hypotheses: the impact of a series of counter-inflationary shocks; a biased forecasting system; a faulty decision-making system; and the role of inflation expectations. Based on a meta-analysis of the articles, this introduction suggests that the undershooting cannot be explained by a single factor, although counter-inflationary shocks are identified most frequently. The impact of the undershooting on central bank credibility was modest, partly because the forecasts were accompanied by explicit discussions of the forecast risks.inflation targeting, forecasting system, inflation expectations

Voucher Privatization, Households´ Demand for Consumption Goods and Financial Assets and Implications for Macroeconomic Policy

The paper analyzes the impact of voucher privatization scheme on behavior of households and its consequences for macroeconomic policy. The stylized facts of the voucher privatization scheme are described for the Czech case. The consumption as well as portfolio decision of households during the voucher scheme are modeled within the framework of consumption function and a system of demand functions for financial assets. The envelope theorem is used to modify the standard AID system. The empirical results are presented. The paper concludes that the interdependence between privatization and macroeconomic stability should be better understood by policy makers in transitional countries that are going to adopt a similar approach of privatization to the one applied in the Czech Republic.voucher privatization macro policy