Primary cutaneous malignancies in the Northern Cape Province of South Africa: A retrospective histopathological review

Background. Excessive sun exposure and a high prevalence of HIV increase skin cancer risk in South Africa (SA).Objective. To describe the nature and extent of skin cancers presenting in the public and private health sectors of the Northern Cape Province of SA.Methods. A retrospective analysis of histologically confirmed new primary cutaneous malignancies from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012 was conducted using public and private health sector databases. Types, quantity and distribution of common invasive malignancies by population group, age, gender, anatomical site and health sector were explored. One-year cumulative incidence was calculated and logistic regression models were used to analyse incidence and melanoma thickness trends.Results. A total of 4 270 biopsies (13 cutaneous malignancies) were identified. The commonest was squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), followed by basal cell carcinoma, Kaposi’s sarcoma (KS), cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) and basosquamous carcinoma, in descending order. The odds of a white male developing SCC increased by 8% each year (odds ratio (OR) 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 - 1.15; p=0.022), while the odds of a black male developing SCC and KS decreased by 9% (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84 - 0.99; p=0.033) and 18% (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.70 - 0.97; p=0.022), respectively, each year. SCC and CMM were diagnosed at more advanced stages in the public than in the private healthcare sector. CMM is being detected earlier, as indicated by low-stage depth increasing by 72% annually (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.04 - 3.01; p=0.042).Conclusions. Results suggest that reported skin cancer patterns are changing. There is a need for further research and equitable appropriation of financial resources and effort towards developing primary skin cancer prevention initiatives in SA

Primary cutaneous malignancies in the Northern Cape Province of South Africa: A retrospective histopathological review

Background. Excessive sun exposure and a high prevalence of HIV increase skin cancer risk in South Africa (SA).Objective. To describe the nature and extent of skin cancers presenting in the public and private health sectors of the Northern Cape Province of SA.Methods. A retrospective analysis of histologically confirmed new primary cutaneous malignancies from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012 was conducted using public and private health sector databases. Types, quantity and distribution of common invasive malignancies by population group, age, gender, anatomical site and health sector were explored. One-year cumulative incidence was calculated and logistic regression models were used to analyse incidence and melanoma thickness trends.Results. A total of 4 270 biopsies (13 cutaneous malignancies) were identified. The commonest was squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), followed by basal cell carcinoma, Kaposi’s sarcoma (KS), cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) and basosquamous carcinoma, in descending order. The odds of a white male developing SCC increased by 8% each year (odds ratio (OR) 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 - 1.15; p=0.022), while the odds of a black male developing SCC and KS decreased by 9% (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84 - 0.99; p=0.033) and 18% (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.70 - 0.97; p=0.022), respectively, each year. SCC and CMM were diagnosed at more advanced stages in the public than in the private healthcare sector. CMM is being detected earlier, as indicated by low-stage depth increasing by 72% annually (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.04 - 3.01; p=0.042).Conclusions. Results suggest that reported skin cancer patterns are changing. There is a need for further research and equitable appropriation of financial resources and effort towards developing primary skin cancer prevention initiatives in SA

Estimating the changing burden of disease attributable to interpersonal violence in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012

Background. South Africa (SA)’s high rate of interpersonal violence persists as a leading public health problem for the country. The first South African Comparative Risk Assessment Study (SACRA1) in 2000 quantified the long-term mental and physical health burden attributable to interpersonal violence by supplementing the direct injury burden of disease attributable to interpersonal violence injuries with the substantial contribution of mental health, behavioural and reproductive health consequences accruing from exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) and child sexual abuse. Objectives. To revise and improve these estimates by including the additional burden from other forms of child maltreatment, community violence, sexual violence by non-partners, and bullying victimisation in SA for 2000, 2006 and 2012, and trends over time. Methods. We used comparative risk assessment methods to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) for interpersonal violence. This method requires inputs on the prevalence of exposure to the interpersonal violence risk factor subtypes, namely child maltreatment, bullying, IPV, sexual violence by non-partners and other community violence; the burden of related health outcomes (mortality and morbidity); and relative risks of health outcomes in individuals exposed to the risk factor v. those unexposed. We estimated the PAF for the combinations of all interpersonal violence subtypes together to estimate the burden attributable to interpersonal violence overall for 2000, 2006 and 2012. Results. Between 2000 and 2012, there was a decrease in interpersonal violence age-standardised attributable death rates from 100 to 71 per 100 000. In the second South African Comparative Risk Assessment Study (SACRA2), estimates of the attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for interpersonal violence for the year 2000 were revised, from 1.7 million to 2 million DALYs, taking into account attributable mortality and disability from additional forms of violence. There was a decrease in DALYs attributable to interpersonal violence from 2 million in 2000 to 1.75 million in 2012, accounting for 8.5% of the total burden for SA, ranking second highest, after unsafe sex, among 18 risk factors evaluated in 2012. Conclusion. Overall, interpersonal violence-attributable DALYs decreased substantially but remain high. The reduction in age-standardised attributable death rates indicates that some policy and social intervention aspects are effective. Further strengthening of existing laws pertaining to interpersonal violence, and other prevention measures, are needed to intensify the prevention of violence, particularly gender-based violence. Additional forms of violence included in this analysis have improved our understanding of the interpersonal violence burden, but the attributable burden in males, although exceedingly high, remains an underestimate. There is a need to improve the epidemiological data on prevalence and risks for the different types of interpersonal violence, particularly for males

A model-based approach to estimating the prevalence of disease combinations in South Africa

Background: The development of strategies to better detect and manage patients with multiple long-term conditions requires estimates of the most prevalent condition combinations. However, standard meta-analysis tools are not well suited to synthesising heterogeneous multimorbidity data. Methods: We developed a statistical model to synthesise data on associations between diseases and nationally representative prevalence estimates and applied the model to South Africa. Published and unpublished data were reviewed, and meta-regression analysis was conducted to assess pairwise associations between 10 conditions: arthritis, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), depression, diabetes, HIV, hypertension, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke and tuberculosis. The national prevalence of each condition in individuals aged 15 and older was then independently estimated, and these estimates were integrated with the ORs from the meta-regressions in a statistical model, to estimate the national prevalence of n a statistical model, to estimate the national prevalence of each condition combination. Results: The strongest disease associations in South Africa are between COPD and asthma (OR 14.6, 95% CI 10.3 to 19.9), COPD and IHD (OR 9.2, 95% CI 8.3 to 10.2) and IHD and stroke (OR 7.2, 95% CI 5.9 to 8.4). The most prevalent condition combinations in individuals aged 15+ are hypertension and arthritis (7.6%, 95% CI 5.8% to 9.5%), hypertension and diabetes (7.5%, 95% CI 6.4% to 8.6%) and hypertension and HIV (4.8%, 95% CI 3.3% to 6.6%). The average numbers of comorbidities are greatest in the case of COPD (2.3, 95% CI 2.1 to 2.6), stroke (2.1, 95% CI 1.8 to 2.4) and IHD (1.9, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.2). Conclusion: South Africa has high levels of HIV, hypertension, diabetes and arthritis, by international standards, and these are reflected in the most prevalent condition combinations. However, less prevalent conditions such as COPD, stroke and IHD contribute disproportionately to the multimorbidity burden, with high rates of comorbidity. This modelling approach can be used in other settings to characterise the most important disease combinations and levels of comorbidity

Recalibration of the limiting antigen avidity EIA to determine mean duration of recent infection in divergent HIV-1 subtypes.

ArticleBackground: Mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) and misclassification of long-term HIV-1 infections, as proportion false recent (PFR), are critical parameters for laboratory-based assays for estimating HIV-1 incidence. Recent review of the data by us and others indicated that MDRI of LAg-Avidity EIA estimated previously required recalibration. We present here results of recalibration efforts using >250 seroconversion panels and multiple statistical methods to ensure accuracy and consensus. Methods: A total of 2737 longitudinal specimens collected from 259 seroconverting individuals infected with diverse HIV-1 subtypes were tested with the LAg-Avidity EIA as previously described. Data were analyzed for determination of MDRI at ODn cutoffs of 1.0 to 2.0 using 7 statistical approaches and sub-analyzed by HIV-1 subtypes. In addition, 3740 specimens from individuals with infection >1 year, including 488 from patients with AIDS, were tested for PFR at varying cutoffs. Results: Using different statistical methods,MDRI values ranged from 88-94 days at cutoff ODn = 1.0 to 177-183 days at ODn = 2.0. The MDRI values were similar by different methods suggesting coherence of different approaches. Testing formisclassification among long-terminfections indicated that overall PFRs were 0.6%to 2.5%at increasing cutoffs of 1.0 to 2.0, respectively. Balancing the need for a longer MDRI and smaller PFR (<2.0%) suggests that a cutoff ODn = 1.5, corresponding to an MDRI of 130 days should be used for cross-sectional application. The MDRI varied among subtypes from 109 days (subtype A&D) to 152 days (subtype C). Conclusions: Based on the new data and revised analysis, we recommend an ODn cutoff = 1.5 to classify recent and long-term infections, corresponding to an MDRI of 130 days (118-142). Determination of revised parameters for estimation of HIV-1 incidence should facilitate application of the LAg-Avidity EIA for worldwide use.This research has been supported by the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during resurgence driven by Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to compare clinical severity of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 infection with BA.1 and earlier variant infections among laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in the Western Cape, South Africa, using timing of infection to infer the lineage/variant causing infection. METHODS: We included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between 1-21 May 2022 (BA.4/BA.5 wave) and equivalent prior wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of (i) death and (ii) severe hospitalization/death (all within 21 days of diagnosis) using Cox regression adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, admission pressure, vaccination and prior infection. RESULTS: Among 3,793 patients from the BA.4/BA.5 wave and 190,836 patients from previous waves the risk of severe hospitalization/death was similar in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 waves (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93; 1.34). Both Omicron waves had lower risk of severe outcomes than previous waves. Prior infection (aHR 0.29, 95% CI 0.24; 0.36) and vaccination (aHR 0.17; 95% CI 0.07; 0.40 for at least 3 doses vs. no vaccine) were protective. CONCLUSION: Disease severity was similar amongst diagnosed COVID-19 cases in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 periods in the context of growing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 due to prior infection and vaccination, both of which were strongly protective