Clinical trial parameters that influence outcomes in lupus trials that use the systemic lupus erythematosus responder index

Objective: The SLE Responder Index (SRI) is a composite endpoint used in SLE trials. This investigation examined the clinical trial elements that drive response measured by the SRI. Methods: Analyses are based on data from two phase 3 trials (n = 2262) that evaluated the impact of an anti-B-cell activating factor antibody on disease activity using SRI-5 as the primary endpoint (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01196091 and NCT01205438). Results: The SRI-5 response rate at week 52 for all patients was 32.8%. Non-response due to a lack of SLEDAI improvement, concomitant medication non-compliance or dropout was 31, 16.5 and 19.1%, respectively. Non-response due to deterioration in BILAG or Physician's Global Assessment after SLEDAI improvement, concomitant medication compliance and trial completion was 0.5%. Disease activity in three SLEDAI organ systems was highly prevalent at baseline: mucocutaneous, 90.6%; musculoskeletal, 82.9%; and immunologic, 71.6%. Disease activity in each of the other organ systems was <11% of patients. Four clinical manifestations were highly prevalent at baseline: arthritis, 82.6%; rash, 69.2%; alopecia, 58.2%; and mucosal ulcer, 32.5%. The combined prevalence of renal, vascular and CNS disease at baseline was 17.6%; these patients had high SRI-5 response rates. Adjustments to corticosteroids were allowed during the first 24 weeks. Increases in corticosteroids above 2.5 mg/day were observed in 16.2% of placebo patients over the first 24 weeks after randomization. Conclusion: The primary drivers of SRI-5 response were SLEDAI improvement, concomitant medication adherence and trial completion. Arthritis, rash, alopecia and mucosal ulcer were the most prevalent clinical manifestations at baseline. Corticosteroid increases and rare, highly weighted disease manifestations in SLEDAI can confound the SRI signal

Neuropsychiatric Events in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Predictors of Occurrence and Resolution in a Longitudinal Analysis of an International Inception Cohort

Objective: To determine predictors of change in neuropsychiatric (NP) event status in a large, prospective, international inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). // Methods: Upon enrollment and annually thereafter, NP events attributed to SLE and non-SLE causes and physician-determined resolution were documented. Factors potentially associated with the onset and resolution of NP events were determined by time-to-event analysis using a multistate modeling structure. // Results: NP events occurred in 955 (52.3%) of 1,827 patients, and 593 (31.0%) of 1,910 unique events were attributed to SLE. For SLE-associated NP (SLE NP) events, multivariate analysis revealed a positive association with male sex (P = 0.028), concurrent non-SLE NP events excluding headache (P < 0.001), active SLE (P = 0.012), and glucocorticoid use (P = 0.008). There was a negative association with Asian race (P = 0.002), postsecondary education (P = 0.001), and treatment with immunosuppressive drugs (P = 0.019) or antimalarial drugs (P = 0.056). For non-SLE NP events excluding headache, there was a positive association with concurrent SLE NP events (P < 0.001) and a negative association with African race (P = 0.012) and Asian race (P < 0.001). NP events attributed to SLE had a higher resolution rate than non-SLE NP events, with the exception of headache, which had comparable resolution rates. For SLE NP events, multivariate analysis revealed that resolution was more common in patients of Asian race (P = 0.006) and for central/focal NP events (P < 0.001). For non-SLE NP events, resolution was more common in patients of African race (P = 0.017) and less common in patients who were older at SLE diagnosis (P < 0.001). // Conclusion: In a large and long-term study of the occurrence and resolution of NP events in SLE, we identified subgroups with better and worse prognosis. The course of NP events differs greatly depending on their nature and attribution

Psychosis in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Results From an International Inception Cohort Study

Objectives: To determine, in a multi-ethnic/racial, prospective SLE inception cohort, the frequency, attribution, clinical and autoantibody associations with lupus psychosis and the short and long-term outcome as assessed by physicians and patients. Methods: Patients were evaluated annually for 19 neuropsychiatric (NP) events including psychosis. SLE disease activity 2000, SLICC/ACR damage index and SF-36 scores were collected. Time to event and linear regressions were used as appropriate. Results: Of 1,826 SLE patients, 88.8% were female, 48.8% Caucasian. The meanSD age was 35.1±13.3 years, disease duration 5.64.2 months and follow-up 7.44.5 years. There were 31 psychotic events in 28/1,826 (1.53%) patients and most [(26/28; 93%)] had a single event. In the majority of patients [20/25; (80%)] and events [28/31; (90%)] psychosis was attributed to SLE, usually within 3 years of SLE diagnosis. Positive associations [hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval [HR (95%CI)] with lupus psychosis were prior SLE NP events [3.59, (1.16, 11.14), male sex [3.0, (1.20, 7.50)], younger age at SLE diagnosis [(per 10 years younger), 1.45 (1.01, 2.07)] and African ancestry [4.59 (1.79, 11.76)]. By physician assessment most psychotic events resolved by the second annual visit following onset, in parallel with an improvement in patient reported SF-36 summary and subscale scores. Conclusion: Psychosis is an infrequent manifestation of NPSLE. Generally, it occurs early after SLE onset and has a significant negative impact on health status. As determined by patient and physician report, the short and long term outlook is good for most patients, though careful follow-up is required

Prediction of damage accrual in systemic lupus erythematosus using the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Frailty Index (SLICC-FI)

OBJECTIVE: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) frailty index (FI) has been shown to predict mortality, but its association with other important outcomes is unknown. We examined the association of baseline SLICC-FI values with damage accrual in the SLICC inception cohort. METHODS: The baseline visit was defined as the first at which both organ damage (SLICC/ACR Damage Index [SDI]) and health-related quality of life (Short-Form 36 [SF-36]) were assessed. Baseline SLICC-FI scores were calculated. Damage accrual was measured by the increase in SDI between the baseline assessment and the last study visit. Multivariable negative binomial regression estimated the association between baseline SLICC-FI values and the rate of increase in the SDI during follow-up, adjusting for relevant demographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS: The 1549 SLE patients eligible for this analysis were mostly female (88.7%) with mean (standard deviation, SD) age 35.7 (13.3) years and median (interquartile range) disease duration 1.2 (0.9-1.5) years at baseline. Mean (SD) baseline SLICC-FI was 0.17 (0.08) with a range of 0-0.51. Over a mean (SD) follow-up of 7.2 (3.7) years, 653 patients (42.2%) had an increase in SDI. Higher baseline SLICC-FI values (per 0.05 increment) were associated with higher rates of increase in the SDI during follow-up (Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR] 1.19; 95% CI 1.13-1.25), after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity/region, education, baseline SLEDAI-2K, baseline SDI, and baseline use of corticosteroids, antimalarials, and immunosuppressives. CONCLUSION: The SLICC-FI predicts damage accrual in incident SLE, which further supports the SLICC-FI as a valid health measure in SLE

Antinuclear Antibody–Negative Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in an International Inception Cohort

Objectives: The spectrum of antinuclear antibodies (ANA) is changing to include both nuclear staining as well as cytoplasmic and mitotic cell patterns (CMPs) and accordingly a change in terminology to anti‐cellular antibodies. This study examined the prevalence of indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) anti‐cellular antibody staining using the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort. / Methods: Anti‐cellular antibodies were detected by IIF on HEp‐2000 substrate utilizing the baseline serum. Three serological subsets were examined: 1) ANA‐positive (presence of either nuclear or mixed nuclear/CMP staining), 2) anti‐cellular antibody‐negative (absence of any intracellular staining), and 3) isolated CMP staining. The odds of being anti‐cellular antibody‐negative versus ANA or isolated CMP‐positive was assessed by multivariable analysis. / Results: 1137 patients were included; 1049/1137 (92.3%) were ANA‐positive, 71/1137 (6.2%) were anti‐cellular antibody‐negative, and 17/1137 (1.5%) had isolated CMP. The isolated CMP group did not differ from the ANA‐positive or anti‐cellular antibody‐negative group in clinical, demographic or serologic features. Patients who were older (OR 1.02 [95% CI: 1.00, 1.04]), of Caucasian race/ethnicity (OR 3.53 [95% CI: 1.77, 7.03]), or on high dose glucocorticoids at or prior to enrolment (OR 2.39 [95% CI: 1.39, 4.12]) were more likely to be anti‐cellular antibody‐negative. Patients on immunosuppressants (OR 0.35 [95% CI: 0.19, 0.64]) or with anti‐SSA/Ro60 (OR 0.41 [95% CI: 0.23, 0.74]) or anti‐UI‐RNP (OR 0.43 [95% CI: 0.20, 0.93]) were less likely to be anti‐cellular antibody‐negative. / Conclusions: In newly diagnosed SLE, 6.2% of patients were anti‐cellular antibody‐negative and 1.5% had isolated CMP. The prevalence of anti‐cellular antibody‐negative SLE will likely decrease as emerging nomenclature guidelines recommend that non‐nuclear patterns should also be reported as a positive ANA

Accrual of Atherosclerotic Vascular Events in a Multicenter Inception Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Cohort

Objective: In previous studies, atherosclerotic vascular events (AVEs) were shown to occur in ~10% of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We undertook this study to investigate the annual occurrence and potential risk factors for AVEs in a multinational, multiethnic inception cohort of patients with SLE. / Methods: A large 33‐center cohort of SLE patients was followed up yearly between 1999 and 2017. AVEs were attributed to atherosclerosis based on SLE being inactive at the time of the AVE as well as typical atherosclerotic changes observed on imaging or pathology reports and/or evidence of atherosclerosis elsewhere. Analyses included descriptive statistics, rate of AVEs per 1,000 patient‐years, and univariable and multivariable relative risk regression models. / Results: Of the 1,848 patients enrolled in the cohort, 1,710 had ≥1 follow‐up visit after enrollment, for a total of 13,666 patient‐years. Of these 1,710 patients, 3.6% had ≥1 AVEs attributed to atherosclerosis, for an event rate of 4.6 per 1,000 patient‐years. In multivariable analyses, lower AVE rates were associated with antimalarial treatment (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.32–0.91]), while higher AVE rates were associated with any prior vascular event (HR 4.00 [95% CI 1.55–10.30]) and a body mass index of >40 kg/m2 (HR 2.74 [95% CI 1.04–7.18]). A prior AVE increased the risk of subsequent AVEs (HR 5.42 [95% CI 3.17–9.27], P < 0.001). / Conclusion: The prevalence of AVEs and the rate of AVE accrual demonstrated in the present study is much lower than that seen in previously published data. This may be related to better control of both the disease activity and classic risk factors

Economic evaluation of damage accrual in an international SLE inception cohort using a multi-state model approach

OBJECTIVES: There is a paucity of data regarding healthcare costs associated with damage accrual in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We describe costs associated with damage states across the disease course using multi-state modeling. METHODS: Patients from 33 centres in 11 countries were enrolled in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort within 15 months of diagnosis. Annual data on demographics, disease activity, damage (SLICC/American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Damage Index [SDI]), hospitalizations, medications, dialysis, and selected procedures were collected. Ten-year cumulative costs (Canadian dollars) were estimated by multiplying annual costs associated with each SDI state by the expected state duration using a multi-state model. RESULTS: 1687 patients participated, 88.7% female, 49.0% of Caucasian race/ethnicity, mean age at diagnosis 34.6 years (SD 13.3), and mean follow up 8.9 years (range 0.6-18.5). Annual costs were higher in those with higher SDIs (SDI ≥ 5: $22 006 2019 CDN, 95$16 662, $27 350 versus SDI=0:$1833, 95% CI $1134,$2532). Similarly, 10-year cumulative costs were higher in those with higher SDIs at the beginning of the 10-year interval (SDI ≥ 5: $189 073, 95$142 318, $235 827 versus SDI=0:$21 713, 95% CI $13 639,$29 788). CONCLUSION: Patients with the highest SDIs incur 10-year cumulative costs that are almost 9-fold higher than those with the lowest SDIs. By estimating the damage trajectory and incorporating annual costs, damage can be used to estimate future costs, critical knowledge for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of novel therapies