Evolutionary instability of selfish learning in repeated games

Across many domains of interaction, both natural and artificial, individuals use past experience to shape future behaviors. The results of such learning processes depend on what individuals wish to maximize. A natural objective is one’s own success. However, when two such “selfish” learners interact with each other, the outcome can be detrimental to both, especially when there are conflicts of interest. Here, we explore how a learner can align incentives with a selfish opponent. Moreover, we consider the dynamics that arise when learning rules themselves are subject to evolutionary pressure. By combining extensive simulations and analytical techniques, we demonstrate that selfish learning is unstable in most classical two-player repeated games. If evolution operates on the level of long-run payoffs, selection instead favors learning rules that incorporate social (other-regarding) preferences. To further corroborate these results, we analyze data from a repeated prisoner’s dilemma experiment. We find that selfish learning is insufficient to explain human behavior when there is a trade-off between payoff maximization and fairness

Changing social contracts in climate-change adaptation

Risks from extreme weather events are mediated through state, civil society and individual action 1 , 2 . We propose evolving social contracts as a primary mechanism by which adaptation to climate change proceeds. We use a natural experiment of policy and social contexts of the UK and Ireland affected by the same meteorological event and resultant flooding in November 2009. We analyse data from policy documents and from household surveys of 356 residents in western Ireland and northwest England. We find significant differences between perceptions of individual responsibility for protection across the jurisdictions and between perceptions of future risk from populations directly affected by flooding events. These explain differences in stated willingness to take individual adaptive actions when state support retrenches. We therefore show that expectations for state protection are critical in mediating impacts and promoting longer-term adaptation. We argue that making social contracts explicit may smooth pathways to effective and legitimate adaptation

Retarded coordinates based at a world line, and the motion of a small black hole in an external universe

In the first part of this article I present a system of retarded coordinates based at an arbitrary world line of an arbitrary curved spacetime. The retarded-time coordinate labels forward light cones that are centered on the world line, the radial coordinate is an affine parameter on the null generators of these light cones, and the angular coordinates are constant on each of these generators. The spacetime metric in the retarded coordinates is displayed as an expansion in powers of the radial coordinate and expressed in terms of the world line's acceleration vector and the spacetime's Riemann tensor evaluated at the world line. The formalism is illustrated in two examples, the first involving a comoving world line of a spatially-flat cosmology, the other featuring an observer in circular motion in the Schwarzschild spacetime. The main application of the formalism is presented in the second part of the article, in which I consider the motion of a small black hole in an empty external universe. I use the retarded coordinates to construct the metric of the small black hole perturbed by the tidal field of the external universe, and the metric of the external universe perturbed by the presence of the black hole. Matching these metrics produces the MiSaTaQuWa equations of motion for the small black hole.Comment: 20 pages, revtex4, 2 figure

Luminosity- and morphology-dependent clustering of galaxies

How does the clustering of galaxies depend on their inner properties like morphological type and luminosity? We address this question in the mathematical framework of marked point processes and clarify the notion of luminosity and morphological segregation. A number of test quantities such as conditional mark-weighted two-point correlation functions are introduced. These descriptors allow for a scale-dependent analysis of luminosity and morphology segregation. Moreover, they break the degeneracy between an inhomogeneous fractal point set and actual present luminosity segregation. Using the Southern Sky Redshift Survey~2 (da Costa et al. 1998, SSRS2) we find both luminosity and morphological segregation at a high level of significance, confirming claims by previous works using these data (Benoist et al. 1996, Willmer et al. 1998). Specifically, the average luminosity and the fluctuations in the luminosity of pairs of galaxies are enhanced out to separations of 15Mpc/h. On scales smaller than 3Mpc/h the luminosities on galaxy pairs show a tight correlation. A comparison with the random-field model indicates that galaxy luminosities depend on the spatial distribution and galaxy-galaxy interactions. Early-type galaxies are also more strongly correlated, indicating morphological segregation. The galaxies in the PSCz catalog (Saunders et al. 2000) do not show significant luminosity segregation. This again illustrates that mainly early-type galaxies contribute to luminosity segregation. However, based on several independent investigations we show that the observed luminosity segregation can not be explained by the morphology-density relation alone.Comment: aastex, emulateapj5, 20 pages, 13 figures, several clarifying comments added, ApJ accepte

Double Inflation in Supergravity and the Large Scale Structure

The cosmological implication of a double inflation model with hybrid + new inflations in supergravity is studied. The hybrid inflation drives an inflaton for new inflation close to the origin through supergravity effects and new inflation naturally occurs. If the total e-fold number of new inflation is smaller than $\sim 60$, both inflations produce cosmologically relevant density fluctuations. Both cluster abundances and galaxy distributions provide strong constraints on the parameters in the double inflation model assuming $\Omega_0=1$ standard cold dark matter scenario. The future satellite experiments to measure the angular power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background will make a precise determination of the model parameters possible.Comment: 19 pages (RevTeX file

Definition of infection after fracture fixation: A systematic review of randomized controlled trials to evaluate current practice

Introduction: One of the most challenging musculoskeletal complications in modern trauma surgery is infection after fracture fixation (IAFF). Although infections are clinically obvious in many cases, a clear definition of the term IAFF is crucial, not only for the evaluation of published research data but also for the establishment of uniform treatment concepts. The aim of this systematic review was to identify the definitions used in the scientific literature to describe infectious complications after internal fixation of fractures. The hypothesis of this study was that the majority of fracture-related literature do not define IAFF. Material and methods: A comprehensive search was performed in Embase, Cochrane, Google Scholar, Medline (OvidSP), PubMed publisher and Web-of-Science for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on fracture fixation. Data were collected on the definition of infectious complications after fracture fixation used in each study. Study selection was accomplished through two phases. During the first phase, titles and abstracts were reviewed for relevance, and the full texts of relevant articles were obtained. During the second phase, full-text articles were reviewed. All definitions were literally extracted and collected in a database. Then, a classification was designed to rate the quality of the description of IAFF. Results: A total of 100 RCT’s were identified in the search. Of 100 studies, only two (2%) cited a validated definition to describe IAFF. In 28 (28%) RCTs, the authors used a self-designed definition. In the other 70 RCTs, (70%) there was no description of a definition in the Methods section, although all of the articles described infections as an outcome parameter in the Results section. Conclusion: This systematic review shows that IAFF is not defined in a large majority of the fracture-related literature. To our knowledge, this is the first study conducted with the objective to explore this important issue. The lack of a consensus definition remains a problem in current orthopedic trauma research and treatment and this void should be addressed in the near future

Distributions, conservation status, and abiotic stress tolerance potential of wild cucurbits (Cucurbita L.)

Societal Impact Statement Crop wild relatives—wild species closely related to cultivated plants—are valuable genetic resources for crop improvement, but gaps in knowledge constrain their conservation and limit their further use. We develop new information on the distributions, potential breeding value, and conservation status of the 16 known wild relatives of cultivated pumpkins, squashes, zucchini, and gourds (Cucurbita L.). The taxa occur from the central USA to Central America, plus two South American species, with the greatest richness in central Mexico and the western borderlands between Mexico and the USA. We determine the majority of species are of medium priority for conservation, both with regard to collecting for ex situ maintenance, and for enhanced habitat protection. Summary Crop wild relatives are valuable genetic resources for crop improvement. Knowledge gaps, including with regard to taxonomy, distributions, and characterization for traits of interest constrain their use in plant breeding. These deficiencies also affect conservation planning, both with regard to in situ habitat protection, and further collection of novel diversity for ex situ maintenance. Here we model the potential ranges of all 16 known wild cucurbit taxa (Cucurbita L.), use ecogeographic information to infer their potential adaptations to abiotic stresses, and assess their ex situ and in situ conservation status. The taxa occur from the central USA to Central America, plus two South American species. Predicted taxon richness was highest in central Mexico and in the western borderlands between Mexico and the USA. We find substantial ecogeographic variation both across taxa and among populations within taxa, with regard to low temperatures, high and low precipitation, and other adaptations of potential interest for crop breeding. We categorize 13 of the taxa medium priority for further conservation as a combination of the ex situ and in situ assessments, two low priority, and one sufficiently conserved. Further action across the distributions of the taxa, with emphasis on taxonomic richness hotspots, is needed to comprehensively conserve wild Cucurbita populations

Planning for Sustainability in Small Municipalities: The Influence of Interest Groups, Growth Patterns, and Institutional Characteristics

How and why small municipalities promote sustainability through planning efforts is poorly understood. We analyzed ordinances in 451 Maine municipalities and tested theories of policy adoption using regression analysis.We found that smaller communities do adopt programs that contribute to sustainability relevant to their scale and context. In line with the political market theory, we found that municipalities with strong environmental interests, higher growth, and more formal governments were more likely to adopt these policies. Consideration of context and capacity in planning for sustainability will help planners better identify and benefit from collaboration, training, and outreach opportunities

Natural Double Inflation in Supergravity

We propose a natural double inflation model in supergravity. In this model, chaotic inflation first takes place by virtue of the Nambu-Goldstone-like shift symmetry, which guarantees the absence of the exponential factor in the potential for the inflaton field. During chaotic inflation, an initial value of the second inflation (new inflation) is set. In this model, the initial value of new inflation can be adequately far from the local maximum of the potential for new inflation due to the small linear term of the inflaton in the K\"ahler potential. Therefore, the primordial fluctuations within the present horizon scale may be attributed to both inflations; that is, the first chaotic inflation produces the primordial fluctuations on the large cosmological scales while the second new inflation on the smaller scales. The successive decay of the inflaton for new inflation leads to a reheating temperature low enough to avoid the overproduction of gravitinos in a wide range of the gravitino mass.Comment: 13 pages, to appear in Phys. Rev.