THE BIAS FOR FORWARD EXCHANGE RATE AND THE RISK PREMIUM: AN EXPLANATION WITH A STOCHASTIC AND DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

Forward exchange rate unbiassedness is rejected in test for international exchange markets. Such issue can be interpreted as evidence of a biased forward rate and/or time-varying risk premia. This paper proposes a stochastic general equilibrium model which generates substantial variability in the magnitude of predictable excess returns. Simulation exercises suggest that higher persistency in the monetary policy produces higher bias in the estimated slope coefficient in the regression of the change in the logarithm of the spot exchange rate on the forward premium. Also, our model suggest that the nature of the transmission between monetary shocks can explain the excess returns puzzle. Empirical evidence for the DM-USD rate that support our theoretical results is provided. La insesgadez del tipo forward ha sido ampliamente rechazada en los estudios empíricos sobre los mercados de tipo cambio internacionales. Este aspecto puede interpretarse como la existencia de un sesgo en la capacidad predictiva del tipo forward y/o la presencia de una prima de riesgo cambiante en el tiempo. Este trabajo propone un modelo dinámico y estocástico de equilibrio general que genera amplia volatilidad en la prima de riesgo. Los ejercicios de simulación llevados a cabo sugieren que una mayor persistencia de la política monetaria produce un mayor sesgo en la pendiente estimada de una regresión del cambio en el logaritmo del tipo spot sobre la prima de riesgo. Además, el modelo sugiere que la naturaleza de la transmisión de los shocks monetarios puede explicar dicho sesgo. Finalmente, el trabajo presenta evidencia empírica sobre el tipo de cambio entre el marco alemán y el dólar americano en línea con los resultados teóricos.Teoría de las expectativas, Prima de riesgo, Tipo de cambio forward, Simulación. Expectations theory, Risk premium, Forward exchange rates, Simulations.

Time-Varying forward Bias and the Volatility of Risk Premium: a Monetary Explanation

Forward exchange rate unbiassedness is rejected for international exchange markets. This paper proposes a stochastic general equilibrium model which generates substantial variability in the magnitude of predictable excess returns. Simulation exercises suggest that high persistency in the monetary policy produces greater bias in the estimated slope coefficient in the regression of the change in the logarithm of the spot exchange rate on the forward premium. Also, our model suggest that the nature of the transmission between monetary shocks can explain the excess return puzzle. Empirical evidence for the US-UK exchange rate according to our theoretical results is provided.La insesgadez del tipo de cambio forward es rechazada para los mercados cambiarios internacionales. Este trabajo propone un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico que genera variabilidad suficiente en las magnitudes de los excesos de rendimientos predecibles. Los ejercicios de simulación realizados sugieren que una alta persistencia de la política monetaria produce un mayor sesgo en el coeficiente estimado de la pendiente de la regresión entre la primera diferencia del logaritmo del tipo de cambio spot sobre la prima forward. Además, nuestro modelo sugiere que la naturaleza de la transmisión entre shocks monetarios puede explicar la paradoja del exceso de rendimiento. Por último, proporcionamos evidencia empírica de acuerdo con nuestros resultados teóricos para el tipo de cambio entre EEUU y Reino Unido.

The New Market Effect on Return and Volatility of Spanish Sector Indexes

Recently (April 2000), the New Market index began to be computed in the Spanish Stock Exchange as a relevant indicator of the new technological firms’ behavior in the Spanish economy. This paper provides empirical evidence about the relationships between the return and volatility of Spanish sector indexes and the New Market index volatility. Using GARCH methodology, empirical results reveal a positive significant impact on the financial, industrial and utilities sector volatility, that is, high volatility in New Market tend to increase volatility in the other sectors. On the other hand, only statistical effect is detected on return of industrial sector, suggesting that only this sector require a risk premium when shocks in the technological sector increase the global market risk.Desde abril del 2000 el índice del llamado Nuevo Mercado empezó a contabilizarse en la Bolsa española como un indicador relevante del comportamiento de las empresas tecnológicas en la economía española. Este trabajo proporciona evidencia empírica sobre las relaciones entre el rendimiento y la volatilidad de los índices bursátiles sectoriales españoles y la volatilidad del índice bursátil del Nuevo Mercado. Utilizando la metodología GARCH, los resultados empíricos revelan un impacto significativo importante sobre la volatilidad de los índices de los sectores financiero e industrial, es decir, la alta volatilidad del Nuevo Mercado tiende a incrementar la volatilidad en los otros sectores. Por otro lado, sólo se detecta un efecto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sector industrial, sugiriendo que sólo este sector precisa de una prima de riesgo cuando los shocks en el sector tecnológico incrementan el riesgo de todo el mercado.

Estimating US persistent and transitory monetary shocks: implications for monetary policy

This paper proposes an estimation method for persistent and transitory monetary shocks using the monetary policy modeling proposed in Andolfatto et al, [Journal of Monetary Economics, 55 (2008), pp.: 406-422]. The contribution of the paper is threefold: a) to deal with non-Gaussian innovations, we consider a convenient reformulation of the state-space representation that enables us to use the Kalman filter as an optimal estimation algorithm. Now the state equation allows expectations play a significant role in explaining the future time evolution of monetary shocks; b) it offers the possibility to perform maximum likelihood estimation for all the parameters involved in the monetary policy, and c) as a consequence, we can estimate the conditional probability that a regime change has occurred in the current period given an observed monetary shock. Empirical evidence on US monetary policy making is provided through the lens of a Taylor rule, suggesting that the Fed’s policy was implemented accordingly with the macroeconomic conditions after the Great Moderation. The use of the particle filter produces similar quantitative and qualitative findings. However, our procedure has much less computational cost.Kalman filter, Non-normality, Particle filter, Monetary policy

Tethered swimming under different flow velocities in a swimming flume. Its relationship with swimming performance

Departamento de Educación Física y Deportiv

Detección de M señales gaussianas utilizando el desarrollo modificado de un proceso estocástico

Utilizando el desarrollo modificado de un proceso estocástico se propone una nueva metodología, alternativa a la basada en el desarrollo de Karhunen-Loeve, para el problema de detección de M señales Gaussianas en ruido Gaussiano blanco. Las soluciones proporcionadas no presentan el problema del cálculo de los autovalores y autofunciones asociados a la función de covarianza involucrada y son fácilmente implementables desde el punto de vista práctico

The New Market effect on return and volatility of Spanish sector indexes

Desde abril del 2000 el índice del llamado Nuevo Mercado empezó a contabilizarse en la Bolsa española como un indicador relevante del comportamiento de las empresas tecnológicas en la economía española. Este trabajo proporciona evidencia empírica sobre las relaciones entre el rendimiento y la volatilidad de los índices bursátiles sectoriales españoles y la volatilidad del índice bursátil del Nuevo Mercado. Utilizando la metodología GARCH, los resultados empíricos revelan un impacto significativo importante sobre la volatilidad de los índices de los sectores financiero e industrial, es decir, la alta volatilidad del Nuevo Mercado tiende a incrementar la volatilidad en los otros sectores. Por otro lado, sólo se detecta un efecto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sector industrial, sugiriendo que sólo este sector precisa de una prima de riesgo cuando los shocks en el sector tecnológico incrementan el riesgo de todo el mercado. ABSTRACT: Recently (April 2000), the New Market index began to be computed in the Spanish Stock Exchange as a relevant indicator of the new technological firms’ behavior in the Spanish economy. This paper provides empirical evidence about the relationships between the return and volatility of Spanish sector indexes and the New Market index volatility. Using GARCH methodology, empirical results reveal a positive significant impact on the financial, industrial and utilities sector volatility, that is, high volatility in New Market tend to increase volatility in the other sectors. On the other hand, only statistical effect is detected on return of industrial sector, suggesting that only this sector require a risk premium when shocks in the technological sector increase the global market risk

Estimating US persistent and transitory monetary shocks: implications for monetary policy

This paper proposes an estimation method for persistent and transitory monetary shocks using the monetary policy modeling proposed in Andolfatto et al, [Journal of Monetary Economics, 55 (2008), pp.: 406-422]. The contribution of the paper is threefold: a) to deal with non-Gaussian innovations, we consider a convenient reformulation of the state-space representation that enables us to use the Kalman filter as an optimal estimation algorithm. Now the state equation allows expectations play a significant role in explaining the future time evolution of monetary shocks; b) it offers the possibility to perform maximum likelihood estimation for all the parameters involved in the monetary policy, and c) as a consequence, we can estimate the conditional probability that a regime change has occurred in the current period given an observed monetary shock. Empirical evidence on US monetary policy making is provided through the lens of a Taylor rule, suggesting that the Fed’s policy was implemented accordingly with the macroeconomic conditions after the Great Moderation. The use of the particle filter produces similar quantitative and qualitative findings. However, our procedure has much less computational cost

Single tensionless transition in the Laplacian roughening model

4 pages, 4 figures.-- PACS nrs.: 64.60.Cn, 68.35.Ct, 68.35.Rh.-- ArXiv pre-print available at: http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0601514Final publisher version available Open Access at: http://gisc.uc3m.es/~cuerno/publ_list.htmlWe report large scale Monte Carlo simulations of the equilibrium discrete Laplacian roughening (dLr) model, originally introduced as the simplest one accommodating the hexatic phase in two-dimensional melting. The dLr model is also relevant to surface roughening in molecular beam epitaxy (MBE). Our data suggest a single phase transition, possibly of the Kosterlitz-Thouless type, between a flat low-temperature phase and a rough, tensionless, high-temperature phase. Thus, earlier conclusions on the order of the phase transition and on the existence of a hexatic phase are seen as due to finite size effects, the phase diagram of the dLr model being similar to that of a continuum analog previously formulated in the context of surface growth by MBE.Partial financial support from CAM and MEC (Spain) through Grants Nos. BFM2003-08532-C03-02 and FIS2004-01399 (J.J. R.-L.), BFM2003-07749-C05-01 (R.C.), and BFM2002-04474-C02 and FIS2004-01001 (E.M.) is acknowledged. E.M. also acknowledges a Ramón y Cajal contract by MEC. We thank BIFI for granting us access to their computing facilities.Publicad

Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange

This paper provides a theoretical discussion of the forward premium anomaly. We reformulate the well-known Lucas (1982) model by allowing for the existence of monetary policy regimes. The monetary supply is viewed as having two stochastic components: a) a persistent component that reflects the preferences of the central bank regarding the long-run money supply or inflation target, and b) a transitory component that represents short-lived interventions. To generate agents forecasts, we consider two scenarios: a) consumers can distinguish the permanent and the transitory components of the money supply, and b) consumers can observe only historical series of the aggregate monetary supply and face a signal-extraction problem. We simulate the model from a carefully estimation for the parameters involved in the model. Numerical simulations reveal that, under complete information, forward unbiasedness cannot be rejected at conventionally significant levels. However, when learning about monetary policy is incorporated, the forward bias can be reproduced without artificially assuming an unreasonable degree of risk aversion