Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change

Detecting impacts of invasive non-native sharptooth catfish, Clarias gariepinus, within invaded and non-invaded rivers.

In aquatic ecosystems, impacts by invasive introduced fish can be likened to press disturbances that persistently influence communities. This study examined invasion disturbances by determining the relationship between non-native sharptooth catfish Clarias gariepinus and aquatic macroinvertebrates in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. A Multiple Before–After Control–Impact (MBACI) experimental design was used to examine macroinvertebrate communities within two rivers: one with catfish and another one without catfish. Within the invaded river, macroinvertebrates showed little response to catfish presence, whereas predator exclusion appeared to benefit community structure. This suggests that the macroinvertebrate community within the invaded river was adapted to predation impact because of the dominance of resilient taxa, such as Hirudinea, Oligochaeta and Chironomidae that were abundant in the Impact treatment relative to the Control treatment. High macroinvertebrate diversity and richness that was observed in the Control treatment, which excluded the predator, relative to the Impact treatment suggests predator avoidance behaviour within the invaded river. By comparison, within the uninvaded river, catfish introduction into the Impact treatment plots indicated negative effects on macroinvertebrate community that was reflected by decrease in diversity, richness and biomass. A community level impact was also reflected in the multivariate analysis that indicated more variation in macroinvertebrate composition within the Impact treatment relative to the Control in the uninvaded river. Catfish impact within the uninvaded river suggests the dominance of vulnerable taxa, such as odonates that were less abundant in the Impact treatment plots after catfish introduction. From a disturbance perspective, this study revealed different macroinvertebrate responses to catfish impact, and suggests that within invaded habitats, macroinvertebrates were less responsive to catfish presence, whereas catfish introduction within uninvaded habitats demonstrated invasion impact that was shown by a decrease in the abundance of vulnerable taxa. The occurrence of non-native sharptooth catfish within many Eastern Cape rivers is a concern because of its predation impact and potential to influence trophic interrelationships, and efforts should be taken to protect uninvaded rivers, and, where possible, eradicate the invader