Interpreting Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Returns to Schooling

This paper synthesizes economic insights from theoretical models of schooling choice based on individual benefits and econometric work interpreting instrumental variables estimates as weighted averages of individual-specific causal effects. Linkages are illustrated using college proximity to instrument for schooling. After characterizing groups differentially affected by the instrument according to family background, I directly compute weights underlying estimation of the overall return. In analyzing the level of schooling at which individuals change their behavior in response to the instrument, I demonstrate that this instrument has its greatest impact on the transition from high school to college. Specification robustness is also examined.

Methodological Frontiers of Public Finance Field Experiments

The purpose of this article is to demonstrate how a rich array of methods can be applied to increase the relevance of field experiments in public economics. Two cross-cutting themes are important in multiple phases of the research. First, greater statistical sophistication can draw more value from a field experiment without obscuring the simple and compelling information from the differences in average outcomes of intervention and control groups. Second, the methodological frontier is interdisciplinary, drawing on knowledge and techniques developed in psychology, anthropology, and sociology that can be adapted in order to make public finance field experiments more useful.

Incarceration Length, Employment, and Earnings

This paper estimates effects of increases in incarceration length on employment and earnings prospects of individuals after their release from prison. I utilize a variety of research designs including controlling for observable factors and using instrumental variables for incarceration length based on randomly assigned judges with different sentencing propensities. The results show no consistent evidence of adverse labor market consequences of longer incarceration length using any of the analytical methods in either the state system in Florida or the federal system in California.

Experimental Analysis of Neighborhood Effects on Youth

neighborhood, real experiment, multiple testing

Is Crime Contagious?

We test the hypothesis that criminal behavior is “contagious” – or susceptible to what economists term “endogenous effects” – by examining the extent to which lower local-area crime rates decrease arrest rates among individuals. Using data from the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) randomized housing-mobility experiment, in operation since 1994 in five U.S. cities, we exploit the fact that the effect of treatment group assignment yields different types of neighborhood changes across the five demonstration sites and use treatment-site interactions to instrument for measures of post-randomization neighborhood crime rates as well as neighborhood poverty or racial segregation in analysis of individual arrest outcomes. We find no evidence that violence is contagious; neighborhood racial segregation appears to be the most important explanation for across-neighborhood variation in arrests for violent crimes. Our only evidence for contagion comes with less serious crimes. Some estimates suggest an effect for males, but these results are imprecise. We also find evidence that young males are more likely to engage in property crimes when violent crimes are relatively more prevalent within the community. These findings are consistent with a “resource swamping” model in which increases in the prevalence of more serious crimes dilutes the police resources available for deterring less serious crimes.endogenous effects, social multiplier, arrests, social experiment

Is Crime Contagious?

endogenous effects, social multiplier, arrests, social experiment

Beyond Treatment Effects: Estimating the Relationship Between Neighborhood Poverty and Individual Outcomes in the MTO Experiment

neighborhood effects, social experiments

Prison-Based Education and Re-Entry into the Mainstream Labor Market

incarceration, GED, earnings

Effects of Neighborhood Characteristics on the Mortality of Black Male Youth: Evidence From Gautreaux

The Gautreaux data for this paper were created with the assistance of the Leadership Council for Metropolitan Open Communities under special agreement with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the National Center for Health Statistics. Generous support for data construction and analysis was provided by Daniel Rose and the MIT Center for Real Estate, the National Bureau of Economic Research, the National Science Foundation (SBE-9876337), the Princeton Center for Economic Policy Studies, and the Princeton Industrial Relations Section. Technical support was provided by the Princeton Office of Population Research (NICHD 5P30-HD32030) and the Princeton Center for Health and Wellbeing. Mortality count data for male youth residing in Chicago community areas were graciously provided by the Illinois Center for Health Statistics. We thank Greg Duncan and members of the Princeton Industrial Relations Section for helpful comments.Neighborhood effects; Mortality