Le programme économique de Vivant : entre utopie et réalisme

Vivant propose de remplacer les allocations sociales par un revenu de base inconditionnel, de détaxer le travail et d’instaurer une taxe sociale sur la consommation de 50 %. Ce programme est-il utopique ? Le cas échéant, certaines adaptations le rendent-elles applicable ? Toutes les générations gagnent-elles à l’application de ce programme ? Qu’en est-il de la croissance économique à long terme ?

On the Weak Consistency of the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator in VAR Models with BEKK-GARCH(1,q) Errors

We provide conditions that enable to prove the weak consistency of the quasi maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of a vector autoregressive model with GARCH(l,q) errors. The BEKK representation of Engle and Kroner (1995) is used t.o parametrize the multivariate GARCH process.

Le programme économique de Vivant: entre utopie et réalisme

Vivant propose de remplacer les allocations sociales par un revenu de base inconditionnel, de détaxer le travail et d’instaurer une taxe sociale sur la consommation de 50 %. Ce programme est-il utopique ? Le cas échéant, certaines adaptations le rendent-elles applicable ? Toutes les générations gagnent-elles à l’application de ce programme ? Qu’en est-il de la croissance économique à long terme

Modelling interest rates with a cointegrated VAR-GARCH model

We use a bivariate VAR model to model and predict the joint evolution of short term and long term interest rates. We introduce a GARCH effect on the innovations of the model in order to account for the changing volatility of the series. We test the cointegration of the two interest rates, which is implied by a present value relation between the rates. The cointegration test is done both with and without taking account of the GARCH effect. The empirical results for five countries (Belgium, Germany, France, Great Britain and the USA) point to the same conclusions: i) the incorporation of the GARCH part allows to conclude more clearly that a cointegration relation exists; ii) GARCH effects are quite present; and iii) the models are useful for short term predictions of interest rates.

Numéro 5 - octobre 2002

Vivant propose de remplacer les allocations sociales par un revenu de base inconditionnel, de détaxer le travail et d’instaurer une taxe sociale sur la consommation de 50 %. Ce programme est-il utopique ? Le cas échéant, certaines adaptations le rendent-elles applicable ? Toutes les générations gagnent-elles à l’application de ce programme ? Qu’en est-il de la croissance économique à long terme

SANISOL: a web tool to provide recommendations for users of trace metal contaminated vegetable gardens in Wallonia (southern Belgium)

Vegetable gardening in urban soils increases food security and offers a wide range of social and ecosystem benefits. However, elevated soil trace metal element concentrations in urban and industrial areas may pose a health hazard, limiting the development of urban gardening. Such a situation is encountered in Wallonia where former industrial activities have substantially increased trace metal topsoil content. To provide appropriate recommendations for users of contaminated vegetable gardens in Wallonia, we developed a web tool, called SANISOL, which is described in this work. SANISOL provides recommendations concerning (1) the health risks posed by the presence of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb and Zn in soil and (2) the products that can be cultivated safely in the vegetable garden. The recommendations concerning health risks are provided from a health risks assessment model. The gardener’s exposure is estimated based on the gardener’s profile (age, garden products consumed, etc.) and the garden’s soil trace metal contents. If there is a potential health risk, SANISOL tool reports information on the health risk causes and provides recommendations to reduce the gardener’s exposure. The quality of garden produce is provided for 14 fruits and vegetables based on the expected trace metal content in the products calculated from soil-to-plant transfer models. SANISOL tool indicates if a specific garden product is likely to have trace metal contents higher than a commercially purchased product, or than the maximum level in foodstuffs. In conclusion, while this work demonstrates that it is possible to develop a tool that provides appropriate and tailored recommendations for gardeners living in areas with high trace metal content in soil, it also highlights the uncertainties and progress that needs to be made to properly manage the human health risks associated with soil trace metals such as As, Cd and Pb