Geographical Spillovers and Growth

One of the main subjects in the theory of economic growth is to explain regional differences among rates of growth. In this paper, we address this issue through the notion of the "underdevelopment trap". Such a trap may be the result of strategic complementarities between investment decisions which generate multiple equilibria. The latter may be Pareto inefficient because of technological externalities. We test our model on international pooled data on the period 1970-90. The econometric analysis shows that economic growth rates depend on regional investment decisions. Moreover, it appears that such regional spillovers are channeled mainly through the physical rather than through the human capital stock.Underdevelopment Traps., Technological Externalities, Strategic Complementarity, growth, Regional Spillovers

Deforestation and credit cycles in Latin American countries

This paper establishes a link between deforestation and credit cycles in Latin American countries. The latter exhibit rapid deforestation rates as well as macroeconomic instability that is often rooted in credit booms and crunches episodes: data available on the last years show a coincidence between higher macroeconomic instability and deforestation increases. This paper provides a theoretical explanation and econometric investigations of this phenomenon. A key ingredient of the model is the existence of two sectors: a modern agricultural sector and a subsistence one, which are hypothesised to catch the basic features of Latin American agricultural sectors. Agricultural production relies on three production factors: land, capital and labour. Agents clear forested areas in order to increase agricultural lands. Interest rates movements have an effect on agricultural decisions and thus on deforestation since they induce factor movements between the agricultural sectors. It is shown that deforestation occurs in response to interest rates increases or decreases primarily because of the irreversible character of forest conversion. Econometric tests are conducted on the 1948-2005 period on an exhaustive sample of Latin American countries. The database on deforestation is a compilation of FAO censuses and several measures of credit cycles are calculated as well. The main output of the paper is to evidence a link between credit cycles and deforestation. The results are robust to the introduction of usual control variables in deforestation equations.Credit cycles;deforestation;Latin America

A methodology to estimate impacts of domestic policies on deforestation: Compensated Successful Efforts for “avoided deforestation” (REDD)

Climate change mitigation would benefit from Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) in developing countries. The REDD mechanism is in charge of distilling the right incentives for fostering forest conservation with appropriate compensation of foregone revenues, which in turn is related to avoided deforestation (how many hectares of forests are saved). Although any prediction of deforestation rates (i.e. business-as-usual scenarios) is challenging, and any negotiated target is subject to political influence, these two ways have been prioritirized so far. In other words, proposals have focused on a baseline (or cap)-and-trade approach, which relevance is questionable because resulting financial compensations are subject to unfairness if estimations of avoided deforestation are not reliable. Rather than considering overall deforestation (predicted and observed), we argue that a REDD mechanism would gain from linking compensations to real efforts that developing countries implement for slowing deforestation rates. This would provide more efficient incentives to design and enforce suitable policies and measures. The methodology we present to measure these efforts (labeled Compensated Successful Efforts) is based on the rationale that overall deforestation is due partly to structural factors, and partly to domestic policies and measures. This typology differs from others presented in the literature such as proximate / underlying causes, or economic / institutional factors. Using an econometric model, our approach estimates efforts that are (i) independent of structural factors (economic development, population, initial forest area, agricultural export prices), (ii) estimated ex post at the end of the crediting period, and (iii) relative to other countries. In order to illustrate the methodology we apply the model to a panel of 48 countries (Asia, Latin America, Africa) and four periods between 1970 and 2005. We conclude on the feasibility to estimate avoided deforestation using the Compensated Successful Efforts approach. In addition to being conservative from an environmental perspective, this approach guarantees fairness by accounting for dramatic changes during the commitment period.avoided deforestation;REDD;climate change;baseline scenario;Forest

A methodology to estimate impacts of domestic policies on deforestation: Compensated Successful Efforts for “avoided deforestation” (REDD)

Climate change mitigation would benefit from Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) in developing countries. The REDD mechanism is in charge of distilling the right incentives for fostering forest conservation with appropriate compensation of foregone revenues, which in turn is related to avoided deforestation (how many hectares of forests are saved). Although any prediction of deforestation rates (i.e. business-as-usual scenarios) is challenging, and any negotiated target is subject to political influence, these two ways have been prioritirized so far. In other words, proposals have focused on a baseline (or cap)-and-trade approach, which relevance is questionable because resulting financial compensations are subject to unfairness if estimations of avoided deforestation are not reliable. Rather than considering overall deforestation (predicted and observed), we argue that a REDD mechanism would gain from linking compensations to real efforts that developing countries implement for slowing deforestation rates. This would provide more efficient incentives to design and enforce suitable policies and measures. The methodology we present to measure these efforts (labeled Compensated Successful Efforts) is based on the rationale that overall deforestation is due partly to structural factors, and partly to domestic policies and measures. This typology differs from others presented in the literature such as proximate / underlying causes, or economic / institutional factors. Using an econometric model, our approach estimates efforts that are (i) independent of structural factors (economic development, population, initial forest area, agricultural export prices), (ii) estimated ex post at the end of the crediting period, and (iii) relative to other countries. In order to illustrate the methodology we apply the model to a panel of 48 countries (Asia, Latin America, Africa) and four periods between 1970 and 2005. We conclude on the feasibility to estimate avoided deforestation using the Compensated Successful Efforts approach. In addition to being conservative from an environmental perspective, this approach guarantees fairness by accounting for dramatic changes during the commitment period.avoided deforestation, REDD, climate change, baseline scenario, Forest

Deforestation and credit cycles in Latin American countries

This paper establishes a link between deforestation and credit cycles in Latin American countries. The latter exhibit rapid deforestation rates as well as macroeconomic instability that is often rooted in credit booms and crunches episodes: data available on the last years show a coincidence between higher macroeconomic instability and deforestation increases. This paper provides a theoretical explanation and econometric investigations of this phenomenon. A key ingredient of the model is the existence of two sectors: a modern agricultural sector and a subsistence one, which are hypothesised to catch the basic features of Latin American agricultural sectors. Agricultural production relies on three production factors: land, capital and labour. Agents clear forested areas in order to increase agricultural lands. Interest rates movements have an effect on agricultural decisions and thus on deforestation since they induce factor movements between the agricultural sectors. It is shown that deforestation occurs in response to interest rates increases or decreases primarily because of the irreversible character of forest conversion. Econometric tests are conducted on the 1948-2005 period on an exhaustive sample of Latin American countries. The database on deforestation is a compilation of FAO censuses and several measures of credit cycles are calculated as well. The main output of the paper is to evidence a link between credit cycles and deforestation. The results are robust to the introduction of usual control variables in deforestation equations.Credit cycles, deforestation, Latin America

A response to the commentary on “Compensated Successful Efforts”

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Do remittances dampen the effect of natural disasters on output growth volatility in developing countries?

This paper analyzes the impact of natural disasters on the output growth volatility. Using a large sample of developing countries and mobilizing a dynamic panel data framework, it uncovers a diminishing macroeconomic destabilizing consequence of natural disasters as remittance inflows rise. It appears that the effect of natural disasters disappears for a remittance ratio above 8% of GDP. However, remittances aggravate the destabilizing effects of natural disasters when they exceed 17% of GDP.Natural disasters;output growth volatility;Remittances

Remittances and Household Consumption Instability in Developing Countries

This paper analyzes the impact of remittances on household consumption instability in developing countries on a large panel of developing countries. The four main results are the following: Firstly, remittances significantly reduce household consumption instability. Secondly, the insurance role played by remittances is highlighted: remittances dampen the effect of various sources of consumption instability in developing countries (natural disasters, agricultural shocks, discretionary fiscal policy). Thirdly, the insurance role played by remittances is more important in less financially developed countries. Fourthly, the overall stabilizing effect of remittances is mitigated when remittances over GDP exceed 8.5%.Remittances;consumption instability;Financial Development;shocks;threshold effects

Remittances and Household Consumption Instability in Developing Countries

This paper analyzes the impact of remittances on household consumption instability in developing countries on a large panel of developing countries. The four main results are the following: Firstly, remittances significantly reduce household consumption instability. Secondly, the insurance role played by remittances is highlighted: remittances dampen the effect of various sources of consumption instability in developing countries (natural disasters, agricultural shocks, discretionary fiscal policy). Thirdly, the insurance role played by remittances is more important in less financially developed countries. Fourthly, the overall stabilizing effect of remittances is mitigated when remittances over GDP exceed 8.5%.Remittances, consumption instability, Financial Development, shocks, threshold effects

Commodity Price Volatility, Vulnerability and Development

This paper examines the meaning and consequences of the developing countries economic vulnerability to the volatility of commodity prices. It first considers how to define and measure this vulnerability, which has three components, shocks, exposure and resilience, and focuses on the two first ones in order to identify the structural vulnerability, distinct from the vulnerability linked to the policy. Second, the main channels through which the vulnerability to commodity prices influences economic growth are presented on the basis of several previous cross-sectional growth regression, supplemented by a test given in an annex. Finally, policy implications are drawn related to development aid, its allocation and its design as well.