Estimating the Covariates of Historical Heights

Data on human height can provide an index that may measure more accurately changes in the standard of living than the more conventional real wage index. Height data, like those on real wages, are relatively abundant and extend back to the seventeenth century. In a previous paper, we developed and tested procedures for estimating the mean and standard deviation of the distribution of human height when the sample is distorted to an unknown extent by missing observations at lower heights. The purpose of this analysis is to extend our techniques so that the covariates of height can be estimated. Such an extension is necessary when trying to draw inferences about the causes of shifts over time in the height distribution so that changes in sample composition can be controlled.

What Are the Determinants of Delayed Childbearing and Permanent Childlessness in the United States?

This paper presents estimates of delayed childbearing and permanent childlessness in the United States and the determinants of those phenomena.The estimates are derived by fitting the Coale-McNeil marriage model to survey data on age at first birth and by letting the parameters of the model depend on covariates. Substantively, the results provide evidence that the low first birth fertility rates experienced in the 1970's were due to both delayed childbearing and to increasing levels of permanent childlessness. The results also indicate that (a) delayed childbearing is less prevalent among blackwomen than among non-black women, (b) education and labor force participation are important determinants of delayed childbearing, (c) the influence of education and labor force participation on delayed childbearing seems to beincreasing across cohorts, (d) education is positively associated with heterogeneity among women in their age at first birth, (d) the dispersion of age at first birth is increasing across cohorts, (f) race has an insignificant effecton childlessness, and (g) education is positively associated with childlessness, with the effect of education increasing and reaching strikingly highlevels for the most recent cohorts.

Medicaid Policy on Sterilization — Anachronistic or Still Relevant?

Female sterilization, typically accomplished by means of tubal ligation, is a widely used method of contraception that is highly effective at preventing unintended pregnancy. Yet there appears to be unmet demand for the procedure in certain segments of the U.S. population. Specifically, low-income women and women from minority racial and ethnic groups may face substantial system-level barriers to obtaining a desired sterilization procedure. One such barrier is the federal policy regarding Medicaid-funded sterilizations. Although this policy was designed to protect vulnerable populations, we believe that it does not effectively fulfill that intention — in fact, it restricts the reproductive autonomy of the women it intends to serve. With the upcoming Medicaid expansions, the number of women affected by these barriers could increase substantially.Population Research Cente

Specification of marital fertility by parents' age, age at marriage and marital duration

Journal ArticleThe positive association between wife's age at marriage and fertility experienced at the older reproductive ages, cited in recent natural fertility literature, is explored using Mormon birth cohorts from 1840 to 1879. When this relationship is specified by husband's age at marriage and marriage duration, the results indicate that older-aged husbands depress marital fertility only at higher marriage durations. The general decomposition of age-specific fertility utilizing both mother's and father's age is also considered. The results show that mother's aging is the most important factor, while father's aging has a moderately negative effect under a natural fertility regime

Changes in American and British Stature Since the Mid-Eighteenth Century: A Prelimanary Report on the Usefulness of Data on Height...

This paper is a progress report on the usefulness of data on physical height for the analysis of long-ten changes in the level of nutrition and health on economic, social, and demographic behavior. It is based on a set of samples covering the U.S. and several other nations over the years from 1750 to the present. The preliminary results indicate that native-born. American Revolution, but there were long periods of declining nutrition and height during the 19th century. Similar cycling has been established for England. A variety of factors, including crop mix, urbanization, occupation, intensity of labor, and immigration affected the level of height and nutrition, although the relative importance of these factors has changed over time. There is evidence that nutrition affected labor productivity. In one of the samples individuals who were one standard deviation above the mean height (holding weight per inch of height constant) were about 8% more productive than individuals one standard deviation below the mean height. Another finding is that death did not choose people at random. Analysis of data for Trinidad indicates that the annual death rate for the shortest quintile of males was more than twice as great as for the tallest quintile of males.

Weekend working: a retrospective cohort study of maternal and neonatal outcomes in a large NHS delivery unit.

OBJECTIVES: Mandatory weekend working for NHS consultants is currently the subject of intense political debate. The Secretary of State for Health's proposed 7-day contract policy is based on the claim that such working patterns will improve patient outcomes. We evaluate this claim by taking advantage of as-if-at-random presentation of women for non-elective deliveries throughout the week. We examine (i) whether consultants currently perform fewer deliveries during weekends versus weekdays, and (ii) whether adverse outcomes increase during weekends. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data on all non-elective deliveries from January 2008 to December 2013 in a large UK obstetrics centre (n=27,466). We used Pearson's chi-squared tests to make direct comparisons of adverse outcome rates during weekdays versus weekends. Outcomes included: estimated maternal blood loss ≥1.5l; severe perineal trauma; delayed neonatal respiration; umbilical arterial pH <7.1; and critical incidents at delivery. RESULTS: Consultants currently perform the same proportion of non-elective deliveries on weekends and weekdays (2.3% versus 2.6%, p=0.25). We found no increase in any adverse maternal or neonatal outcomes during weekends versus weekdays, despite high statistical power to detect such differences. Moreover, adverse outcomes are no higher during periods of the weekend when consultants are not routinely present compared to equivalent periods during weekdays. CONCLUSIONS: Under current working arrangements, women who would benefit from consultant-led delivery are equally likely to receive one on weekends compared to weekdays. Weekend delivery has no effect on maternal or neonatal morbidity. Adopting mandatory 7-day contracts is unlikely to make any difference to either consultant-led delivery during weekends or to patient outcomes.The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development of the National Institutes of Health (Grant ID: P2CHD047879)This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejogrb.2016.01.03

A Demographic Dividend for Sub-Saharan Africa: Source, Magnitude, and Realization

Managing rapid population growth and spurring economic growth are among the most pressing policy challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa. We discuss the links between them and investigate the potential of family planning programs to address these challenges. Specifically, we estimate the impact of family planning programs on income per capita that can arise via the demographic dividend (DD), a boost to per capita income that operates through a chain of causality related to declining fertility. We develop a model to determine the impact of meeting unmet need (MUN) for modern contraceptive methods on fertility and hence on the population age structure in the coming years. We also estimate empirically the DD that has been observed in other countries, using a cross-country regression with panel data covering 40 years. Using the age structure projected by MUN and the empirical estimates of the DD, we estimate the potential for additional economic growth in Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal. We find that in 2030, these countries can enjoy an increase in per capita income of 8-13% by meeting one-third of their unmet need for modern contraception and can enjoy a 31-65% higher income per capita by meeting all of the unmet need. By 2050, these ranges become 13-22% and 47-87% respectively. We discuss the policy implications of our findings

Requests for Abortion in Latin America Related to Concern about Zika Virus Exposure.

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the Massachusetts Medical Society via http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc160538