The Real Exchange Rate and Employment in U.S. Manufacturing: State and Regional Results

In a series of earlier papers we have examined the impact of exchange rate movements on employment and output in the manufacturing sector, disaggregated by industry sector and by production and non-production workers. In this paper we examine the impact of exchange rate movements on manufacturing employment, disaggregated geographically, using census divisions, regions, states and SMSA's as the unit of analysis. Empirical estimates of employment changes are first presented for the four census regions, the nine census divisions, and the fifty states plus the District of Columbia. For the country as a whole, we estimate that movements in the real exchange rate led to the loss of about 1 million manufacturing jobs over this period. We go on to examine in greater detail manufacturing employment in New York State, and report that exchange rate movements had a much larger impact in the areas outside of New York City than in the metropolitan area. This result is consistent with earlier work that found that employment in management or research is not as sensitive to exchange rate movements as employment in production processes. The New York results are followed by an examination of manufacturing employment in five southern states with large rural populations. Some policy makers have expressed a concern that manufacturing employment in rural areas suffered more than in urban areas during the period of the dollar appreciation. We find that within these five states, the impact of the exchange rate on manufacturing employment in the non-SMSA areas was the same or less than was the case for employment within SMSA areas. Finally, we use a multivariate model to explore why manufacturing employment is more sensitive to exchange rate movements in some states than in others. Factors which are associated with greater sensitivity of manufacturing employment to exchange rate movements are: the percent of the population living outside of SMSA areas, the level of production worker wages, and crude oil production. Factors that are associated with less sensitivity of manufacturing employment to exchange rate movements include the percent of the population with 4 years or more of college or per-capita expenditures on public secondary schools.

The Real Exchange Rate, Employment, and Output in Manufacturing in the U.S. and Japan

In the spring of 1981 the U.S. dollar began a four-year period of real appreciation that took it to a peak of more than 50 percent by first quarter 1985. Since then, the dollar has depreciated substantially, but remains above its 1980 level. During the same period, the Japanese yen first depreciated by 12 percent in real terms from 1981 to 1982, and then appreciated by some 30 percent to 1986. These swings in real exchange rates effects on the relative competitiveness of U.S. and Japanese industry, and have effects on employment and output in sectors producing tradeable goods. This paper presents estimates of these effects. Using time series data for the period 1970 to 1986, we use a simple model of supply and demand to estimate the impact of swings in the effective real exchange rate of the dollar and the yen on manufacturing employment and output in the U.S. and Japan, disaggregated by industry sectors, and by production and non-production workers in the case of the U.S. employment. These results are part of a larger research project to estimate the effects of the movements in the real exchange rate on world manufacturing industries. We find significant and substantial effects of the dollar appreciation on employment and output in U.S. manufacturing. In particular, we find that exchange rate movements have had important effects on the durable goods sectors, including primary metals, fabricated metal products, and non-electrical machinery. Other sectors that suffer large employment and output losses when the dollar appreciates are stone, clay and glass products, transportation, instruments, and chemicals. Estimates are also presented for non-production and production workers in the U.S. employment of the latter is more sensitive to the real exchange rate, especially in the durable goods sectors. This suggests the possibility of hysteresis in trade. For Japan, we find significant effects of movements in the yen on employment and output in the durable goods sectors, especially those producing machinery. In particular, yen appreciation causes substantial losses in employment and output in fabricated metal products, general machinery, and electrical machinery. The results for Japan are not as clear as for the U.S., perhaps because we have only annual data for Japan, but quarterly data for the U.S.. Nevertheless, the importance of movements in the real exchange rate for employment and output in manufacturing is evident in both cases.

Comments on the September 6, 2023 Draft of a WIPO Broadcasting Treaty, the Definitions, Scope of Application, National Treatment and Formalities

The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) is evaluating a proposal for a new treaty that provides rights to broadcasting organizations. The negotiations began in 1997 and are currently taking place in the Standing Committee on Copyright and Related Rights (SCCR). On September 6, 2023, the WIPO Secretariat published a revised draft text prepared by the SCCR Chair, SCCR Vice-Chairs and facilitators. This article looks at certain elements of the draft concerning the definitions, scope of application, national treatment and formalities. Objections to the text focus on several draft definitions and the scope of application on the grounds that (1) very broad categories of information transmissions are defined as broadcasting and broadcast programmes, including information not disseminated through traditional radio or television mediums, and (2) that point-to-point transmissions, as opposed to point-to-multipoint transmissions, are inappropriately considered broadcasting. The draft text clearly extends the broadcaster right to transmissions of works in the public domain, licensed under Creative Commons or similar licenses, or even works infringed by the broadcaster. The draft treaty text Article on National Treatment includes a dangerous upward ratchet on broadcaster’s rights, particularly as regards conflicts between the rights of authors, performers and audiences, on the one hand, and broadcasting organizations on the other. The conditions on formalities are unnecessarily restrictive. Alternatives are proposed for some sections of the draft text to narrow the types of transmissions and activities covered by the treaty. This comment does not discuss the default rights or limitations and exceptions to those rights, a topic that will be addressed in a subsequent paper

Simulating Scattering of Composite Particles

We develop a non-perturbative approach to simulating scattering on classical and quantum computers, in which the initial and final states contain a fixed number of composite particles. The construction is designed to mimic a particle collision, wherein two composite particles are brought in contact. The initial states are assembled via consecutive application of operators creating eigenstates of the interacting theory from vacuum. These operators are defined with the aid of the M{\o}ller wave operator, which can be constructed using such methods as adiabatic state preparation or double commutator flow equation. The approach is well-suited for studying strongly coupled systems in both relativistic and non-relativistic settings. For relativistic systems, we employ the language of light-front quantization, which has been previously used for studying the properties of individual bound states, as well as for simulating their scattering in external fields, and is now adopted to the studies of scattering of bound state systems. For simulations on classical computers, we describe an algorithm for calculating exact (in the sense of a given discretized theory) scattering probabilities, which has cost (memory and time) exponential in momentum grid size. Such calculations may be interesting in their own right and can be used for benchmarking results of a quantum simulation algorithm, which is the main application of the developed framework. We illustrate our ideas with an application to the $\phi^4$ theory in $1+1\rm D$.Comment: 32 pages, 10 figures, 3 table

The effect of photobleaching on bee (Hymenoptera: Apoidea) setae color and its implications for studying aging and behavior

Historically, bee age has been estimated using measurements of wing wear and integument color change.  These measurements have been useful in studies of foraging ecology and plant-pollinator interactions.  Wing wear is speculated to be affected by the behaviors associated with foraging, nesting, and mating activities.  Setal color change may be an additional parameter used to measure bee age if it is affected by sun exposure during these same activities.  The objectives of this study were to experimentally assess the effect of direct sun exposure on setal color, unicellular hair-like processes of the integument, and determine whether wing wear and integument photobleaching are correlated.  To quantify photobleaching of setae, we measured changes in hue of lab-reared Bombus huntii Greene (Apidae) exposed to natural sunlight.  We found that sun exposure was a significant variable in determining setal bleaching.  To assess the relationship between wing wear and setal photobleaching, we scored wing wear and measured setal hue of B. huntii, Melecta pacifica fulvida Cresson (Apidae), and Osmia integra Cresson (Megachilidae) from museum specimens.  Wing wear and setal hue values were positively correlated for all three species; however, the strength of the relationship varies across bee species as indicated by correlation coefficient estimates.  Our results suggest that setal color change is affected by sun exposure, and is likely an accurate estimate of bee age.  We suggest that future investigations of bee aging consider a suite of morphometric characteristics due to differences in natural history and sociobiology that may be confounded by the use of a single characteristic

Sex‐Specific Variability in the Immune System across Life‐History Stages.

Organisms theoretically manage their immune systems optimally across their life spans to maximize fitness. However, we lack information on (1) how the immune system is managed across life‐history stages, (2) whether the sexes manage immunity differentially, and (3) whether immunity is repeatable within an individual. We present a within‐individual, repeated‐measures experiment examining life‐history stage variation in the inflammatory immune response in the zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata). In juveniles, age‐dependent variation in immune response differed in a sex‐ and context‐specific manner, resulting in no repeatability across stages. In adults, females displayed little stage‐dependent variation in immune response when laying while receiving a high‐quality (HQ) diet; however, laying while receiving a low‐quality (LQ) diet significantly reduced both immune responses and reproductive outputs in a manner consistent with a facultative (resource‐driven) effect of reproduction on immunity. Moreover, a reduced immune response in females who were raising offspring while receiving an HQ diet suggests a residual effect of the energetic costs of reproduction. Conversely, adult males displayed no variation in immune responses across stages, with high repeatability from the nonbreeding stage to the egg‐laying stage, regardless of diet quality (HQ diet, $r=0.51$; LQ diet, $r=0.42$). Females displayed high repeatability when laying while receiving the HQ diet ($r=0.53$); however, repeatability disappeared when individuals received the LQ diet. High‐response females receiving the HQ diet had greater immune flexibility than did low‐response females who were laying while receiving the LQ diet. Data are consistent with immunity being a highly plastic trait that is sex‐specifically modulated in a context‐dependent manner and suggest that immunity at one stage may provide limited information about immunity at future stages

Organizing the innovation process : complementarities in innovation networking

This paper contributes to the developing literature on complementarities in organizational design. We test for the existence of complementarities in the use of external networking between stages of the innovation process in a sample of UK and German manufacturing plants. Our evidence suggests some differences between the UK and Germany in terms of the optimal combination of innovation activities in which to implement external networking. Broadly, there is more evidence of complementarities in the case of Germany, with the exception of the product engineering stage. By contrast, the UK exhibits generally strong evidence of substitutability in external networking in different stages, except between the identification of new products and product design and development stages. These findings suggest that previous studies indicating strong complementarity between internal and external knowledge sources have provided only part of the picture of the strategic dilemmas facing firms

Configuration development study of the X-24C hypersonic research airplane

Bottom line results were made of a three-phase study to determine the feasibility of designing, building, and operating, and maintaining an air-launched high performance aircraft capable of cruising at speeds up to Mach 8 for short durations. The results show that Lockalloy heat-sink structure affords the capability for a 'work-horse' vehicle which can serve as an excellent platform for this research. It was further concluded that the performance of a blended wing body configuration surpassed that of a lifting body design for typical X-24C missions. The cost of a two vehicle program, less engines, B-52 modification and contractor support after delivery, can be kept within $70M (in Jan. 1976 dollars)

Rapid, Heuristic Discovery and Design of Promoter Collections in Non-Model Microbes for Industrial Applications

This is the author accepted manusript. The final version is available from American Chemical Society via the DOI in this recordAccession Codes: The sequence data for the four Geobacillus spp. used in this study have been submitted to the NCBI Sequence Read Archive and are available under the accession number PRJNA521450.Well-characterized promoter collections for synthetic biology applications are not always available in industrially relevant hosts. We developed a broadly applicable method for promoter identification in atypical microbial hosts that requires no a priori understanding of cis-regulatory element structure. This novel approach combines bioinformatic filtering with rapid empirical characterization to expand the promoter toolkit and uses machine learning to improve the understanding of the relationship between DNA sequence and function. Here, we apply the method in Geobacillus thermoglucosidasius, a thermophilic organism with high potential as a synthetic biology chassis for industrial applications. Bioinformatic screening of G. kaustophilus, G. stearothermophilus, G. thermodenitrificans, and G. thermoglucosidasius resulted in the identification of 636 100 bp putative promoters, encompassing the genome-wide design space and lacking known transcription factor binding sites. Eighty of these sequences were characterized in vivo, and activities covered a 2-log range of predictable expression levels. Seven sequences were shown to function consistently regardless of the downstream coding sequence. Partition modeling identified sequence positions upstream of the canonical -35 and -10 consensus motifs that were predicted to strongly influence regulatory activity in Geobacillus, and artificial neural network and partial least squares regression models were derived to assess if there were a simple, forward, quantitative method for in silico prediction of promoter function. However, the models were insufficiently general to predict pre hoc promoter activity in vivo, most probably as a result of the relatively small size of the training data set compared to the size of the modeled design space