The impact of the Asia crisis on U.S. industry: an almost-free lunch?

Despite predictions to the contrary, the Asia crisis had only modest overall effects on the United States. The expected surge in import volumes did not materialize and the drop in demand for U.S. exports was not enough to slow the nation's robust economy. Nevertheless, these overall effects could have masked other, larger effects in particularly vulnerable U.S. industries. To examine this possibility, the author conducts a sector-level analysis of the turmoil's impact. He concludes that, with the exception of the steel industry, imports from Asia do not compete directly with U.S. products. Accordingly, an appreciation in the dollar with respect to Asian currencies leads to consumption gains with little or no domestic pain.Financial crises - Asia ; Industries ; Asia

International labor standards in the world trade organization and the international labor organization, commentary

World Trade Organization

Testing the Theory of Trade Policy: Evidence from the Abrupt End of the Multifibre Arrangement

Quota restrictions on United States imports of apparel and textiles under the multifibre arrangement (MFA) ended abruptly in January 2005. This change in policy was large, predetermined, and fully anticipated, making it an ideal natural experiment for testing the theory of trade policy. We focus on simple and robust theory predictions about the effects of binding quotas, and also compute nonparametric estimates of the cost of the MFA. We find that prices of quota constrained categories from China fell by 38% in 2005, while prices in unconstrained categories from China and from other countries changed little. We also find substantial quality downgrading in imports from China in previously constrained categories, as predicted by theory. The annual cost of the MFA to U.S. consumers was about $90 per household.

Lost Decade in Translation: Did the US Learn from Japan's Post-Bubble Mistakes?

In 1991, the Japanese economy ended a historic expansion and entered a period of stagnation that has yet to abate. Nine years later, the US economy ended a similarly historic expansion. There were many similarities in the two countries' expansions: asset price bubbles, a real investment boom, easy monetary policy, and improvements in government finances. In the wake of bursting bubbles, the Japanese banking system was insolvent and monetary policy was too tight, problems not evident in the US post-bubble period. But the US has worse fiscal and current account imbalances than Japan had at the same stage in the post-bubble era.

Terrorism and the Resilience of Cities.

Harrigan and Martin assess the viability of major cities, and New York in particular, in the face of catastrophes such as terrorist attacks by considering why cities exist in the first place. They conclude that the same forces thought to lead to the formation of cities—namely, the economic gains derived from the proximity of firms to markets, suppliers, and a large labor pool—help to preserve cities at risk of terrorism and other catastrophic events. Furthermore, given the considerable size of the economic gains generated by major cities, New York and its counterparts should be extremely robust in the event of future occurrences.

Factor Supplies and Specialization in the World Economy

A core prediction of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory is that countries specialize in goods in which they have a comparative advantage, and that the source of comparative advantage is differences in relative factor supplies. To examine this theory, we use the most extensive dataset available and document the pattern of industrial specialization and factor endowment differences in a broad sample of rich and developing countries over a lengthy period (1970-92). Next, we develop an empirical model of specialization based on factor endowments, allowing for unmeasurable technological differences and estimate it using panel data techniques. In addition to estimating the effects of factor endowments, we also consider the alternative hypothesis that the level of aggregate productivity by itself can explain specialization. Our results clearly show the importance of factor endowments on specialization: relative endowments do matter.

Terrorism and the resilience of cities

The September 11 attacks in New York and Washington have forced Americans to confront the fact that to live or work in a large city is to be at greater risk of large-scale terrorism. What do these risks, and the public perception of them, imply for cities in general and the future of New York City in particular? In this article, the authors begin their exploration of this issue by examining why cities exist in the first place. To conduct their analysis, they simulate two key theoretical models of economic geography, using data that approximate the characteristics of a major U.S. city as well as estimates of the costs of the September 11 attacks. The authors conclude that the very forces that lead to city formation also lead cities to be highly resilient in the face of catastrophes such as terrorist attacks. They argue that New York City in particular is likely to continue to thrive despite any ongoing terrorist threat.War - Economic aspects ; Urban economics ; Cities and towns ; Economic conditions - New York (N.Y.) ; Federal Reserve District, 2nd