Les facteurs déterminants la performance des actifs financiers marocains et tunisiens

Cet article se propose d’appliquer les variantes des modèles classiques de gestion de portefeuille sur un échantillon d’entreprises cotées sur les places de Casablanca et de Tunis, dans un cadre hypothétique d’efficience des marchés financiers. Le modèle d’équilibre des actifs financiers (MEDAF) est ainsi connu pour être le modèle ayant eu plus grand nombre d’évolutions en Finance. Nous appliquons les différentes versions du modèle sur un échantillon d’actions issues des places financières marocaine et tunisienne sur la période 2006-2015, qui tourne autour des événements du printemps arabe. Nous avons trouvé que, selon notre période d’étude, et contrairement à l’évolution de la théorie dans ce domaine, ce sont plutôt les modèles à trois facteurs de Fama French (1993) et celui de Carhart (1997) qui permettent d’améliorer sensiblement le pouvoir explicatif et peuvent donc mieux servir en gestion de portefeuille. Tout en restant  dans le paradigme rationnel et sans aller à la finance comportementale, l’apport de cette recherche pour les gestionnaires de portefeuille demeure dans le constat que  les modèles les plus récents n’apportent pas plus de pouvoir explicatif

Causality between investor sentiment and the shares return on the Moroccan and Tunisian financial markets

This paper aims to test the relationship between investor sentiment and the profitability of stocks listed on two emergent financial markets, the Moroccan and Tunisian ones. Two indirect measures of investor sentiment are used, SENT and ARMS. These sentiment indicators show that there is an important relationship between the stocks returns and investor sentiment. Indeed, the results of modeling investor sentiment by past observations show that sentiment has weak memory; on the other hand, series of changes in sentiment have significant memory. The results of the Granger causality test between stock return and investor sentiment show us that profitability causes investor sentiment and not the other way around for the two financial markets studied. Thanks to four autoregressive relationships estimated between investor sentiment, change in sentiment, stock return and change in stock return, we find firstly that the returns predict the changes in sentiments which confirms with our hypothesis and secondly, the variation in profitability negatively affects investor sentiment. We conclude that whatever sentiment measure is used there is a positive and significant relationship between investor sentiment and profitability, but sentiment cannot be predicted from our various variables

The Determinants of Home Bias in Stock Portfolio: An Emerging and Developed Markets Study

The objective of this paper is to measure the degree of Home Bias within holdings portfolio and to identify their determining factors. By following literature and an international CAPM, we have chosen quite a number of susceptible factors that impact Home Bias. This model is, hence, estimated for 20 countries, with cross-section econometrics, between 2008 and 2013. Our results show that all countries have recorded a high level of Home bias in their holdings portfolio. After that, we test if the Home Bias of the emerging markets and that of the developed markets react differently to the determining factors. The volatility of the exchange rate is statistically significant with emerging markets, while it is hardly remarkable for the developed countries. Co-variance, size, distance, language, legal framework and foreign organization stocks prevents American investors to invest abroad. Keywords: International portfolio, Home Bias, exchange rate, emerging market, CAPM JEL Classifications: F31, G1

Reviewers Acknowledgements

Reviewers Acknowledgement