Evaluation of Business Cycle Synchronization by the Oil Revenues (Markov Switching Bayesian VAR Analysis)

The synchronization of business cycles is one of the new topics that have been raised in recent decades in the field of international business at the same time of increased economic integration between countries. Accordingly, considering the influenced Iranian economy by the flow of business cycles, and given that synchronization is investigated by the existence of common factors, so in this study, the synchronization of business cycles of a country as OPEC member with the important and influential factors of oil, which have a significant effect on both the economy of the country and the world, has been studied. Due to the formation of business cycles and the process of oil revenue, the method used is Markov Bayesian VAR Switching (MSBVAR) analysis. According to the obtained results, the synchronization of business cycles between Iran and Iraq during 1985-2015 indicates the high synchronization and symmetry between the two countries' business cycles. The role of oil revenues is significant in justifying the degree of synchronization of business cycles. Regimen 1 (Stagnation) has been more stable than Regime 2 (Inflation) and Regime 1is more likely to be dominant

Examining and comparing the economic effects of spillovers of investment risk in Iran: Computable general equilibrium model approach

Investment is as much as important for economic and social development that it is considered as one of the powerful levers for achieving the development. Accordingly, it is of great importance to assess the investment risk and its spillovers in all developed and developing countries because the risk phenomenon is one of the key features of decision making in the field of investment, affairs related to financial markets and a variety of economic activities. In this regard, the present paper evaluates the effect of investment risk spillover on key economic indicators using a computable general equilibrium model and the GTAP.9 database and the 2011 social accounting matrix (SAM) have been used for this purpose. Two scenarios of 10% and 3% increase in investment risk are considered in order to investigate the effect of these changes according to a recent trend analysis of economic indicators in Iran and the trend of the Iranian economy towards globalization and opening of the economy windows. The results show that both scenarios reduce investment risk, inflation, gross domestic product and total investment. Government expenditures are reduced in all sectors of the economy except for the service sector, which is almost unchanged. The exports are increased in all sectors and the imports are declined in sectors of agriculture, industry and services. As well as, the results show that the import of the oil and gas sector has not been heavily influenced by the investment risk due to its governmental status. By assessing these two scenarios and the sensitivity of the macroeconomic indicators to the degree of risk change, it can be stated that the key economic indicators will be significantly improved by managing the risk of investment; and the country will ultimately follow the development path more quickly

Examining the Impact of Financial Development and Energy Consumption on the Environmental Degradation in Iran in the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis (EKC)

Today, environmental issues, especially water and air pollution problems have become a major global concern. Air pollution, affects the health of living organisms and natural ecosystems. According to various studies, financial development in a country may attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and higher degrees of research and development (R&D). This, in turn can, increase the environmental performance and thereby reduce environmental pollution. This investigation aims to examine the role of financial development and energy consumption in Iran during 1971-2007, in the framework of the environmental Kuznets curve, using ARDL approach. According to results further financial development in Iran lead to decrease of CO2 emissions. In addition, an increase in energy consumption in Iran is likely to increase CO2 emissions. Also, the results reject the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Iran in the long-term

The effect of trade in cultural products on the economic growth of selected countries of the Shanghai Group

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of trade in cultural products on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Shanghai Group member countries during the period 2004-2017. After examining the significance of the data and their co-integration with the Kao co-integration test, the model is estimated using the panel data method. Estimates show that assuming other factors are constant, the export, import and the volume of trade of these products of cultural products over time has a positive and significant effect on the GDP of the Shanghai Group countries. So that with a one percent increase in export, imports and trade volume of cultural products, 0.02, 0.07 and 0.05 percent of GDP, respectively, will increase. Therefore, this effect can be increased by adopting appropriate policies such as marketing and providing a suitable environment for industries to compete and increase their efficiency

The Effect of Oil Shocks on the Green Production in Iran

GDP growth rate as a measure of economic progress is estimates on the basis of national accounts . Since the national accounts are recorded regardless of natural resource depletion, by estimating depreciation in the oil, gas, coal and other parts of the environment, depletion of natural resources can be accounted for which will provide the access to green GNP index. Green GNP shows increased economic growth stability. Among all natural resources, oil is the most important source of revenue for oil exporting countries and fluctuations in its price is a major factor for economic crisis in both the oil-exporting and importing countries. The main purpose of the present paper is to examine the impact of oil price shocks on green GNP . For this study, the first oil price shock are calculated using hoodrick - Prescott Filter method and then the effects of oil price shocks on green manufacturing was estimated using self regressing pattern. Based on the estimation results in the short term, oil price shocks have a negative impact on the green production . This is due to the oil extraction, depletion of natural resource is increased and it leads to decreasing the green production , and it has negative impact on green production in the long-run because an increase in oil production will lead to real growth of other sectors so that this growth offsets the depreciation

Investigating the Shocks of Real Sectors of the Economy on the Welfare Index in the Iranian Economy

The vector auto regression model was used to investigate the effect of real sector shocks on the social welfare in Iran during the period of 1980-2019.The results of the impulse response test showed that the Amartya Sen welfare index showed a rapid response to the shocks of total factor productivity growth in the first period, which had a zero effect over time. The utility-oriented welfare index reacts positively to the shocks of total factor productivity growth in the first period, which has decreased from the second period and has become negative even from the fifth period. Amartya Sen Welfare Index and utility-oriented welfare index shows a positive and rapid response to real GDP per capita shocks in the first period, which is adjusted over time, and from the seventh period. The Amartyasen Welfare Index reacts negatively to oil revenue shocks and is very weak. If the utility-oriented welfare index shows a positive response in the first period, but in the following periods, its effect is adjusted and remains partially positive. Amartya Sen welfare index shows a leap and positive response to employment shocks from the first period and its trend continues and from the fifth period it continues in a positive and stable manner and the utility welfare index has a similar trend to Amartya Sen welfare index. Discussion: In the Iranian economy, employment leads to increased social welfare, while in the long run, oil revenues, GDP per capita and growth in total factor productivity have led to a decrease in social welfare. Therefore, in the Iranian economy, creating employment and reducing unemployment is the most appropriate factor to increase welfare

A study on the effect of productivity on the wage level, with emphasis on the productivity of skilled and unskilled labor

The productivity of labor and wages are two important variables in the market. Identification of the relationship between the labor and the wages can help policymakers and employers make important decisions about workers' wages. This research uses the statistical data from 1974 to 2014 in Iran to explore the effect of the total labor productivity as well as the productivity of skilled and unskilled labor on the wage level. The results of the research in the long-run indicate that, for the case of skilled and unskilled labor productivity, skilled labor productivity maintained a negative effect on the wage level and the unskilled labor productivity had a positive effect on the wage level. In addition, the total labor productivity had a positive impact on the wage level; the results also indicate that the level of education had a positive impact on the wage level and the impact of government size on the level of wage was negative and statistically insignificant