Partners in Austerity: Jamaica, the United States and the International Monetary Fund

This paper looks at Jamaica's ongoing relationship with the International Monetary Fund and multilateral development banks, its recent economic performance and the impact on development of a persistently high debt burden. It finds that after 20 years of negative average annual per capita GDP growth, Jamaica continues to be plagued by high debt and low growth.Now in the third year of an IMF-backed economic program, Jamaica is running the most austere budget in the world, with a primary surplus of 7.5 percent of GDP. After two debt restructurings, both as preconditions to receiving IMF support, Jamaica still has a debt-to-GDP ratio of nearly 140 percent, and net flows from multilateral banks turned negative for two consecutive years. The paper finds that multilateral debt relief may be necessary for Jamaica to escape from its unsustainable debt burden, low-growth trap

Honduras Since the Coup: Economic and Social Outcomes

This paper presents a broad overview of economic and social trends in Honduras since 2006, including the years following the military coup of June 2009. It finds that economic inequality in Honduras has increased dramatically since 2010, while poverty has worsened, unemployment has increased and underemployment has risen sharply, with many more workers receiving less than the minimum wage. While some of the decline was initially due to the global recession that began in 2008, much of it is a result of policy choices, including a decrease in social spending

The Gains From Trade: South American Economic Integration and the Resolution of Conflict

It has long been argued that expanding commercial relations between countries acts as an incentive for countries to avoid hostilities up to and including armed conflict. The case of Venezuela and Colombia may provide an example of how economic integration can establish important incentives to conflict resolution

Venezuela's Economic Recovery: Is It Sustainable?

Venezuela's current growth is generally described as unsustainable, with various negative scenarios put forth, including spiraling debt, inflation, and balance of payments crises. However, these pessimistic forecasts have been far off the mark for most of the past decade. This paper looks at the available economic data to see if Venezuela's economic recovery could be sustained, or even accelerated. It finds that Venezuela's current economic growth is sustainable and could continue at the current pace or higher for many years

Haiti's Fatally Flawed Elections

This report describes the results of an independent recount of vote tally sheets from Haiti's November 28 presidential election. These 11,181 election tally sheets from across Haiti were posted online by Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council (CEP). It finds that for some 1,326 voting booths, or 11.9 percent of the total, tally sheets were either never received by the CEP or were quarantined for irregularities. This corresponds to about 12.7 percent of the vote, which was not counted and is not included in the final totals that were released by the CEP on December 7, 2010 and reported by the press. It also found many more tally sheets that had irregularities in the vote totals that were sufficient to disqualify them, and a large number of clerical errors that further undermines the credibility of the vote count. The report finds that based on the numbers of irregularities, it is impossible to determine who should advance to a second round. If there is a second round, it will be based on arbitrary assumptions and/or exclusions

Voting Share Reform at the IMF: Will it Make a Difference?

For more than 20 years there have been efforts to reform the IMF through changing its voting structure. There are structural limits to both the success, in quantitative terms, of changing these limits; and to the impact of any changes that are won. Ignoring these constraints for the moment, it should in principle be possible to give more voice to the majority of the world's governments, and by extension their people, by increasing voting shares of low- and middle-income countries; and in this way to possibly make IMF policy better reflect and serve the interests of the majority of the world's population, especially in low- and middle-income countries

Update on the Jamaican Economy

This paper looks at Jamaica's stalled agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), its economic performance over the past year and examines its persistently high debt burden. It finds that an unsustainable debt burden continues to displace needed investments, preventing long-term growth. The stalling of the IMF agreement has prevented disbursements of necessary multilateral financing, slowing the economy's recovery. Together with pro-cyclical macroeconomic policies supported by the IMF, the recovery of the Jamaican economy remains muted

Jamaica: Macroeconomic Policy, Debt and the IMF

This paper looks at Jamaica's recent history of indebtedness, its experience during the global economic downturn, and examines its current agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It finds that Jamaica's economic and social progress has suffered considerably from the burden of an unsustainable debt; and that even after the debt restructuring of 2010, this burden remains unsustainable and very damaging. Pro-cyclical macroeconomic policies, implemented under the auspices of the IMF, have also damaged Jamaica's recent and current economic prospects

Ecuador's New Deal: Reforming and Regulating the Financial Sector

This paper looks at Ecuador's financial and regulatory reforms during the past five years, perhaps the most comprehensive of any country in the 21st century: taking control over the central bank, regulating capital outflows, taxing the financial sector, encouraging domestic investment and co-operatives, and protecting consumers

Decade of Reform: Ecuador's Macroeconomic Policies, Institutional Changes, and Results

This paper looks at some of the institutional, policy, and regulatory changes enacted by the government of Ecuador, as well as overall economic and social indicators, over the decade since the Correa government took office