Uptake of systematic reviews and meta-analyses based on individual participant data in clinical practice guidelines: descriptive study.

To establish the extent to which systematic reviews and meta-analyses of individual participant data (IPD) are being used to inform the recommendations included in published clinical guidelines

Study protocol : the empirical investigation of methods to correct for measurement error in biobanks with dietary assessment

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Lifestyle index for mortality prediction using multiple ageing cohorts in the USA, UK and Europe

Current mortality prediction indexes are mainly based on functional morbidity and comorbidity, with limited information for risk prevention. This study aimed to develop and validate a modifiable lifestyle-based mortality predication index for older adults. Data from 51,688 participants (56% women) aged ≥50 years in 2002 Health and Retirement Study, 2002 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and 2004 Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe were used to estimate coefficients of the index with cohort-stratified Cox regression. Models were validated across studies and compared to the Lee index (having comorbid and morbidity predictors). Over an average of 11-year follow-up, 10,240 participants died. The lifestyle index includes smoking, drinking, exercising, sleep quality, BMI, sex and age; showing adequate model performance in internal validation (C-statistic 0.79; D-statistic 1.94; calibration slope 1.13) and in all combinations of internal-external cross-validation. It outperformed Lee index (e.g. differences in C-statistic = 0.01, D-statistic = 0.17, P < 0.001) consistently across health status. The lifestyle index stratified participants into varying mortality risk groups, with those in the top quintile having 13.5% excess absolute mortality risk over 10 years than those in the bottom 50th centile. Our lifestyle index with easy-assessable behavioural factors and improved generalizability may maximize its usability for personalized risk management

Lack of effect of lowering LDL cholesterol on cancer: meta-analysis of individual data from 175,000 people in 27 randomised trials of statin therapy

&lt;p&gt;Background: Statin therapy reduces the risk of occlusive vascular events, but uncertainty remains about potential effects on cancer. We sought to provide a detailed assessment of any effects on cancer of lowering LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with a statin using individual patient records from 175,000 patients in 27 large-scale statin trials.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methods and Findings: Individual records of 134,537 participants in 22 randomised trials of statin versus control (median duration 4.8 years) and 39,612 participants in 5 trials of more intensive versus less intensive statin therapy (median duration 5.1 years) were obtained. Reducing LDL-C with a statin for about 5 years had no effect on newly diagnosed cancer or on death from such cancers in either the trials of statin versus control (cancer incidence: 3755 [1.4% per year [py]] versus 3738 [1.4% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.96-1.05]; cancer mortality: 1365 [0.5% py] versus 1358 [0.5% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.93–1.08]) or in the trials of more versus less statin (cancer incidence: 1466 [1.6% py] vs 1472 [1.6% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.93–1.07]; cancer mortality: 447 [0.5% py] versus 481 [0.5% py], RR 0.93 [95% CI 0.82–1.06]). Moreover, there was no evidence of any effect of reducing LDL-C with statin therapy on cancer incidence or mortality at any of 23 individual categories of sites, with increasing years of treatment, for any individual statin, or in any given subgroup. In particular, among individuals with low baseline LDL-C (&#60;2 mmol/L), there was no evidence that further LDL-C reduction (from about 1.7 to 1.3 mmol/L) increased cancer risk (381 [1.6% py] versus 408 [1.7% py]; RR 0.92 [99% CI 0.76–1.10]).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: In 27 randomised trials, a median of five years of statin therapy had no effect on the incidence of, or mortality from, any type of cancer (or the aggregate of all cancer).&lt;/p&gt

RoB 2: a revised tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials

Assessment of risk of bias is regarded as an essential component of a systematic review on the effects of an intervention. The most commonly used tool for randomised trials is the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool. We updated the tool to respond to developments in understanding how bias arises in randomised trials, and to address user feedback on and limitations of the original tool

Successful up-scaled population interventions to reduce risk factors for non-communicable disease in adults: Results from the International Community Interventions for Health (CIH) project in China, India and Mexico

Background: Non-communicable disease (NCD) is increasing rapidly in low and middle-income countries (LMIC), and is associated with tobacco use, unhealthy diet and physical inactivity. There is little evidence for up-scaled interventions at the population level to reduce risk in LMIC. Methods: The Community Interventions for Health (CIH) program was a population-scale community intervention study with comparator population group undertaken in communities in China, India, and Mexico, each with populations between 150,000-250,000. Culturally appropriate interventions were delivered over 18-24 months. Two independent cross-sectional surveys of a stratified sample of adults aged 18-64 years were conducted at baseline and follow-up. Results: A total of 6,194 adults completed surveys at baseline, and 6,022 at follow-up. The proportion meeting physical activity recommendations decreased significantly in the control group (C) (44.1 to 30.2%), but not in the intervention group (I) (38.0 to 36.1%), p<0.001. Those eating ≥5 portions of fruit and vegetables daily decreased significantly in C (19.2 to 17.2%), but did not change in I (20.0 to 19.6%,), p=0.013. The proportion adding salt to food was unchanged in C (24.9 to 25.3%) and decreased in I (25.9 to 19.6%), p<0.001. Prevalence of obesity increased in C (8.3 to 11.2%), with no change in I (8.6 to 9.7%,) p=0.092. Concerning tobacco, for men the difference-in-difference analysis showed that the reduction in use was significantly greater in I compared to C (p=0.014) Conclusions: Up-scaling known health promoting interventions designed to reduce the incidence of NCD in whole communities in LMIC is feasible, and has measurable beneficial outcomes on risk factors for NCD, namely tobacco use, diet, and physical inactivity

Clustering of health and risk behaviour in immigrant and indigenous Dutch residents aged 19–40 years

Objectives\ud Studies on the co-occurrence, ‘clustering’ of health and other risk behaviours among immigrants from non-industrialised countries lack until now. The aim of this study was to compare this clustering in immigrant and indigenous adults.\ud \ud Methods\ud A representative sample (N = 2,982; response 71%) of the Dutch population aged 19–40, with 247 respondents from non-industrialized countries (Turkey, Morocco, Surinam, Netherlands Antilles), was asked about health behaviours (alcohol, smoking, drugs, unsafe sex, exercise, nutrition, sleep behaviour, traffic behaviour), and about rule-breaking behaviour and aggression. Data were collected using internet questionnaires, which excluded respondents unable to read Dutch.\ud \ud Results\ud Among indigenous adults, health and risk behaviours co-occur in three clusters (alcohol, health-enhancing behaviour, and rule-breaking behaviour), whereas among immigrant groups two clusters were found (alcohol and rule-breaking behaviour/smoking). Differences mostly concerned health-enhancing behaviours such as nutrition, which was not part of any cluster, and physical activity.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud This supports an integrated promotion of healthier lifestyles to immigrants who are able to read Dutch. Regarding potentially risky behaviours like alcohol use and rule-breaking behaviours, this could be similar to that for indigenous people\u

Impact of time since last caloric intake on blood glucose levels

Blood glucose (BG) is usually measured after a caloric restriction of at least 8 h; however evidence-based recommendations for the duration of a fasting status are missing. Here we analyze the effect of fasting duration on levels of BG to determine the minimal fasting duration to achieve comparable BG levels to conventional fasting measurements. We used data of a cross-sectional study on primary care patients, performed in October 2005. We included 28,024 individuals (age-range 18–99 years; 63% women) without known diabetes mellitus and without missing data for BG and fasting status. We computed general linear models, adjusting for age, sex, time of blood withdrawal, systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, total- and HDL-cholesterol, physical activity, smoking, intake of beta-blocker and alcohol. We tested the intra-individual variability with respect to fasting status. Overall, the mean BG differed only slightly between individuals fasting ≥8 h and those fasting <8 h (men: 5.1 ± 0.8 mmol/L versus 5.2 ± 1.2 mmol/L; women: 4.9 ± 0.7 mmol/L, 5.0 ± 1.0 mmol/L). After 3 h of fasting differences of BG diminished in men to −0.08 mmol/L (95%-CI: −0.15; −0.01 mmol/L), in women to −0.07 mmol/L (−0.12; −0.03 mmol/L) compared to individuals fasting ≥8 h. Noteworthy, age, time of day of blood withdrawal, physical activity, and intake of hard liquor influenced BG levels considerably. Our data challenge the necessity for a fasting duration of ≥8 h when measuring blood glucose, suggesting a random sampling or a fasting duration of 3 h as sufficient. Rather, our study indicates that essentially more effort on the assessment of additional external/internal factors on BG levels is necessary

Impact of diabetes on the effects of sodium glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors on kidney outcomes: collaborative meta-analysis of large placebo-controlled trials

Background: Large trials have shown that sodium glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce the risk of adverse kidney and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with heart failure or chronic kidney disease, or with type 2 diabetes and high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. None of the trials recruiting patients with and without diabetes were designed to assess outcomes separately in patients without diabetes. Methods: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of SGLT2 inhibitor trials. We searched the MEDLINE and Embase databases for trials published from database inception to Sept 5, 2022. SGLT2 inhibitor trials that were double-blind, placebo-controlled, performed in adults (age ≥18 years), large (≥500 participants per group), and at least 6 months in duration were included. Summary-level data used for analysis were extracted from published reports or provided by trial investigators, and inverse-variance-weighted meta-analyses were conducted to estimate treatment effects. The main efficacy outcomes were kidney disease progression (standardised to a definition of a sustained ≥50% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] from randomisation, a sustained low eGFR, end-stage kidney disease, or death from kidney failure), acute kidney injury, and a composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure. Other outcomes were death from cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular disease considered separately, and the main safety outcomes were ketoacidosis and lower limb amputation. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022351618. Findings: We identified 13 trials involving 90 413 participants. After exclusion of four participants with uncertain diabetes status, we analysed 90 409 participants (74 804 [82·7%] participants with diabetes [>99% with type 2 diabetes] and 15 605 [17·3%] without diabetes; trial-level mean baseline eGFR range 37–85 mL/min per 1·73 m2). Compared with placebo, allocation to an SGLT2 inhibitor reduced the risk of kidney disease progression by 37% (relative risk [RR] 0·63, 95% CI 0·58–0·69) with similar RRs in patients with and without diabetes. In the four chronic kidney disease trials, RRs were similar irrespective of primary kidney diagnosis. SGLT2 inhibitors reduced the risk of acute kidney injury by 23% (0·77, 0·70–0·84) and the risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for heart failure by 23% (0·77, 0·74–0·81), again with similar effects in those with and without diabetes. SGLT2 inhibitors also reduced the risk of cardiovascular death (0·86, 0·81–0·92) but did not significantly reduce the risk of non-cardiovascular death (0·94, 0·88–1·02). For these mortality outcomes, RRs were similar in patients with and without diabetes. For all outcomes, results were broadly similar irrespective of trial mean baseline eGFR. Based on estimates of absolute effects, the absolute benefits of SGLT2 inhibition outweighed any serious hazards of ketoacidosis or amputation. Interpretation: In addition to the established cardiovascular benefits of SGLT2 inhibitors, the randomised data support their use for modifying risk of kidney disease progression and acute kidney injury, not only in patients with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk, but also in patients with chronic kidney disease or heart failure irrespective of diabetes status, primary kidney disease, or kidney function. Funding: UK Medical Research Council and Kidney Research UK

Adiposity in early, middle and later adult life and cardiometabolic risk markers in later life; findings from the British regional heart study.

OBJECTIVES: This research investigates the associations between body mass index (BMI) at 21, 40-59, 60-79 years of age on cardiometabolic risk markers at 60-79 years. METHODS: A prospective study of 3464 British men with BMI measured at 40-59 and 60-79 years, when cardiometabolic risk was assessed. BMI at 21 years was ascertained from military records, or recalled from middle-age (adjusted for reporting bias); associations between BMI at different ages and later cardiometabolic risk markers were examined using linear regression. Sensitive period, accumulation and mobility life course models were devised for high BMI (defined as BMI≥75th centile) and compared with a saturated BMI trajectory model. RESULTS: At ages 21, 40-59 and 60-79 years, prevalences of overweight (BMI≥25 kg/m2) were 12%, 53%, 70%, and obesity (≥30 kg/m2) 1.6%, 6.6%, and 17.6%, respectively. BMI at 21 years was positively associated with serum insulin, blood glucose, and HbA1c at 60-79 years, with increases of 1.5% (95%CI 0.8,2.3%), 0.4% (0.1,0.6%), 0.3% (0.1,0.4%) per 1 kg/m2, respectively, but showed no associations with blood pressure or blood cholesterol. However, these associations were modest compared to those between BMI at 60-79 years and serum insulin, blood glucose and HbA1c at 60-79 years, with increases of 8.6% (8.0,9.2%), 0.7% (0.5,0.9%), and 0.5% (0.4,0.7%) per 1 kg/m2, respectively. BMI at 60-79 years was also associated with total cholesterol and blood pressure. Associations for BMI at 40-59 years were mainly consistent with those of BMI at 60-79 years. None of the life course models fitted the data as well as the saturated model for serum insulin. A sensitive period at 50 years for glucose and HbA1c and sensitive period at 70 years for blood pressure were identified. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of men who were thin compared to more contemporary cohorts, BMI in later life was the dominant influence on cardiovascular and diabetes risk. BMI in early adult life may have a small long-term effect on diabetes risk