Industrial labor productivities and tariffs in South Africa: Identification based on multilateral liberalization reform

The analysis of the effect of tariffs for labor productivity faces the challenge of tariff policy endogeneity. Tariff policy is designed to promote economic development and the industrial sector tariff structure may reflect characteristics of the industries protected. We seek to identify the effect of tariffs by taking advantage of multilateral tariff liberalization using reductions in industrial sector tariffs in other world regions as instruments for sectoral tariff reductions in South Africa. The data cover 28 manufacturing sectors over the period 1988-2003. We find that tariff reductions have stimulated labor productivity when instrumented by multilateral tariffs. The OLS estimates show downward bias and supports the understanding that the government has given priority to tariff reductions in sectors with slow productivity growth.

Looking Abroad, but Lagging Behind: How the World Technology Frontier Affects South Africa

Industrial sector technology growth must be understood in the context of the international technology development. We study South African manufacturing industries and let the US represent the world technology frontier. The industrial sector linkages between domestic and frontier technology shocks are estimated using panel-data for the period 1970 – 1995. The results show that industrial performance in South Africa is related to the world technology frontier and consequently existing studies of technology overlooking the international context have omitted variable bias. We find that South Africa industries respond to the technology gap to the US, but that the industries are lagging behind. The analysis explains prolonged stagnation in this middle income country and rejects catching up to the frontier.

The Barrier Model of Productivity Growth: South Africa

The barrier model of productivity growth suggests that individual country productivity is related to the world technology frontier disturbed by national barriers. We offer a country study of the barrier model exploiting the dramatic changes in the linkages to the world economy in South Africa. The productivity growth in the manufacturing sector panel for 1970-2003 covers a period of political and economic turbulence and international sanctions. The econometric analysis uses tariffs as measure of barrier and fixed effects estimation to concentrate inference to time series properties. The model shows how productivity growth can be understood as a combination of world frontier growth and the tariff barrier to international spillovers. The estimates establish a long run relationship where domestic productivity follows the world frontier and with change of the barrier affecting transitional growth.Barriers to growth; technology spillover; South Africa; total factor productivity; econometric analysis.

Young and Old Competing for Public Welfare Services

Generational conflict affects the supply of public welfare services, and the rising share of elderly is seen as a threat to educational spending. We offer an analysis of spending in child care, primary and lower secondary education, and care for the elderly related to the size of young and old voters. Using panel data from Denmark for the period 1989-1996, we find that the elderly are reducing spending in child care and education, but the young do not threaten elderly care. It is a disadvantage for both the elderly and the young to be part of a large cohort.public welfare services, group size, age composition of the population, generational conflict

Young and old competing for public welfare services

Generational conflict affects the supply of public welfare services, and the rising share of elderly is seen as a threat to educational spending. We offer an analysis of spending in child care, primary and lower secondary education, and care for the elderly related to the size of young and old voters. The age groups face possible disadvantages of being part of a large cohort, but also can gain political strength to crowd out services for the other groups. The decentralization of public services in Scandinavia allows for the simultaneous analysis of age related services. Using panel data from Denmark for the period 1989-1996, we find that the elderly are reducing spending in child care and education, but the young do not threaten services for the elderly. It is a disadvantage for both the elderly and the young to be part of a large cohort. The possible Tiebout-bias is handled with instrument variables predicting the relevant age composition variables.Public welfare services; group size; age composition of the population; generational conflict

Accumulation of education and regional income growth: Limited human capital effects in Norway

Accumulation of education and geographic concentration of educated people in cities are expected to generate urban income growth. New economic geography predicts income divergence across regions. We investigate the dynamic process of accumulating tertiary education and regional income growth in Norway during the past four decades. The expansion of smart cities goes along with catching up of education level in the periphery and overall the education levels converge. Income levels also are shown to converge in distribution analysis using Kernel functions and first order Markov chains. However, the movements in the income distribution are unrelated to the accumulation of education. The hypothesis of equal income transition probabilities across subgroups of regions with different increases in education cannot be rejected. We conclude that accumulation of education has not been important for the pattern of income growth. Catching up from low income is not driven by education and income growth has not taken off in cities with increasing education level.

Income Distribution and Tax Structure: Microeconomic Test of the Meltzer-Richard Hypothesis

The tax structure is important for the income distribution and therefore a key playground for redistributive politics. The standard theory assumes that more unequal income distribution will create a majority for more redistribution (Meltzer and Richard). This study investigates the empirical validity of this relationship in a microeconomic study of the tax structure in decentralized government in Norway. The choice of revenue instruments studied involves user charges and property taxes oriented towards housing. While user charges act as head taxes, property taxes have distributive consequences. The approach is in the tradition of majority rule, and we show how the local government decisions regarding tax structure and spending level can be understood as one-dimensional. This motivates the empirical analysis where the actual income distribution is measured by the ratio of median to mean income. The estimated model confirms that more equal income distribution implies a shift in the tax burden from property taxes to user charges.

Welfare Competition in Norway

Local redistribution policy creates incentives for welfare migration that may result in 'underprovision' or even a 'race to the bottom'. This paper evaluates the empirical importance of welfare competition. Our contribution is to separate between the policy decision and the actual welfare benefit payments and to introduce income distribution as a determinant of welfare policy. Utilizing spatial econometric methods we find statistical significant strategic interaction between local governments for both the welfare benefit norm decided by the local council and the expected welfare benefits of a standardized person. No robust relationship is found between inequality and welfare benefits and thus we offer no strong support for the Romer-Meltzer-Richard hypothesis. We conclude that there is a geographic pattern in welfare benefits. This does not necessarily imply underprovision, since the grant financing of the local governments may generate overall excessive public spending.

Learning and Foreign Technology Spillover in Thailand: Empirical Evidence on Productivity Dynamics

Thailand has experienced annual average growth of GDP of remarkable 6.6% during the period 1950 – 2000. We analyze total factor productivity (TFP) growth in a modified Nelson-Phelps framework where foreign trade and foreign direct investment influence the adoption of technology. The econometric analysis separating between sources of productivity for agriculture and industry covers the period 1975 – 96. International spillovers are significant and important, and both sectors have been able to take benefit of openness. The analysis addresses the endogeneity issues involved in the estimation of TFP sources and investigates the dynamics of productivity. The effects during the period studied must be interpreted as transition growth, and endogenous growth effects are rejected.

Ramsey model of barriers to growth and skill-biased income distribution in South Africa

The paper integrates two mechanisms of economic growth, barriers to international spillovers and skill-biased effects on the income distribution. South Africa is an interesting case study because of dramatic changes in international barriers over time and policy focus to productivity and distribution. Barriers affect the balance between innovation and adoption in the productivity growth and thereby the skill-bias. The productivity dynamics and the distributional implications are investigated in an intertemporal Ramsey growth model. The model offers a calibrated tariff-equivalence measure of the sanction effect and allows for counterfactual analysis of no-sanctions. Increased openness is shown to reduce barriers to technology adoption leading to skill-biased economic growth and worsened income distribution. The result is consistent with the observation that economic growth under sanctions has been slow and with an increase in the relative wage of unskilled labor. The tradeoff between barriers and skill-bias, foreign spillover driven productivity growth and income distribution, obviously is a challenge for growth policy.