Models of public-private partnerships in megaprojects: the Spanish case

This article provides a literature review of PPP Models, where the clarification of this current confusion and ambiguity constitute the fundamental issue addressed by our research. The systematization of the PPP models is performed by applying six classification criteria based on organizational and financial aspects and focused on the Spanish experience. Additionally, a comparative study of the various schemes applied in European countries is carried out, whereby the concession model implemented successfully in Spain is studied in greater detail. To this end, a megaproject, the first metro line of Seville (Spain) forms the basis of a case-study. When the megaproject is viable through user fees, the public sector can use PPPs to defer payments and as a way to control their deficits and debt without cutting investments in infrastructures and public services. Nevertheless, certain drawbacks should be borne in mind, such as the expenditure commitments of future budgets, the higher cost of private funding, and the necessity for transparency and accountability of PPP contractual arrangements to be improved. Therefore, the aim of this article is to analyze the various forms of PPPs in megaprojects in order to determine the potential efficiency gains that can be achieved in the implementation of these models

Risk management in megaprojects.

Despite its high relevance to the success of megaprojects, risk management remains one of the least developed research issues. Risk management is a process composed of several phases. This paper is focused on the first of these phases: risk identification. Our purpose is to establish the state of the art in risk management in megaprojects, systematize the risks studied in the literature, as well as to identify potential areas of further research. To this end, a systematic review is carried out. Academic journals and conference papers published from 2000 onwards in main databases (WoK, Scopus and ABI) have been examined. A qualitative analysis has been performed by using ATLAS.ti together with a checklist. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no previous systematic revision of papers on risk management in megaprojects has ever been carried out, although certain authors have emphasized its importance. The contribution of this research includes: a bibliometric analysis of the papers that focus on risk management in megaprojects; a systematization and classification of the risks; tw†o matrices comprised of the proposed risk categorization, first in relation to the sector studied, and second related with the different stakeholders; and an identification of gaps in the research in risk management in megaprojects. The systematization of the risks helps managers towards their identification within the megaproject, and to follow the subsequent steps in the risk management process. Moreover, the matrix developed on the transfer of risks can enable managers to analyse who would be the best partner to support each risk. Furthermore, from an academic point of view, potential areas for future lines of research are presented

Kernel alternatives to aproximate operational severity distribution: an empirical application

The estimation of severity loss distribution is one the main topic in operational risk estimation. Numerous parametric estimations have been suggested although very few work for both high frequency small losses and low frequency big losses. In this paper several estimation are explored. The good performance of the double transformation kernel estimation in the context of operational risk severity is worthy of a special mention. This method is based on the work of Bolancé and Guillén (2009), it was initially proposed in the context of the cost of claims insurance, and it means an advance in operational risk research

The financial performance of an innovative megaproject

The financial structure of megaprojects, known in the literature as project finance, is characterized by the creation of a legally independent project company financed with a concentrated equity ownership and a high level of non-recourse debt. Research in this field may yield new ideas and theories about the existing theoretical framework on capital structure, stakeholder management and risk management. A case-study is analyzed in this paper: the financial performance of the first metro line in Seville (Spain). In spite of previous cost overruns in the construction stage, the present operation stage is considered successful from the point of view of social and financial profitability, whereby the risks have been theoretically transferred to stakeholders, as defined by Value for Money considerations. The objective of this study involves: first to determine whether this megaproject meets the expectations for which it was created in terms of hope of return of the shareholders, and the expectations of the economic and financial feasibility under a change of subsidy policies; and secondly to determine whether the conditions remain for not including the investment as public debt. This issue is crucial in a budgetary constraint context for the planning of future metro lines. By taking this first experience into account, this article also provides information for potential participants in the projects of the new metro lines, which are currently in the planning stage

A Comparison of classification/regression trees and logistic regression in failure models

The use of non-parametric statistical methods, the development of models geared towards the homogeneous characteristics of corporate sub-populations, and the introduction of non-financial variables, are three main issues analysed in this paper. This study compares the predictive performance of a non-parametric methodology, namelyClassification/Regression Trees (CART), against traditional logistic regression (LR) by employing a vast set of matched-pair accounts of the smallest enterprises, known as micro-entities,from the United Kingdom for the period 1999 to 2008 that includes financial, non-financial, and macroeconomic variables. Our findings show that CART outperforms the standard approach in the literature, LR

Sustainable university – Knowledge and technology transfer channels to enterprises

The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of the channels through which the transfer of knowledge and technology from technical universities to enterprises takes place. The specific objective is to indicate the forms in which scientists can transfer knowledge and technology to enterprises in the field of sustainable solutions. In order to identify the features of the hidden dimensions of the university-enterprise relationship, the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was used. The factor analysis showed that there are 3 channels through which scientists from technical universities establish relations with enterprises: the consulting and educational channel, the scientific and information channel, and the research and commercialization channel. In each of these channels, forms of knowledge and technology transfer have been identified that may relate to environmental topics for enterprises

Improving bankruptcy prediction in micro-entities by using nonlinear effects and non-financial variables

The use of non-parametric methodologies, the introduction of non-financial variables, and the development of models geared towards the homogeneous characteristics of corporate sub-populations have recently experienced a surge of interest in the bankruptcy literature. However, no research on default prediction has yet focused on micro-entities (MEs), despite such firms’ importance in the global economy. This paper builds the first bankruptcy model especially designed for MEs by using a wide set of accounts from 1999 to 2008 and applying artificial neural networks (ANNs). Our findings show that ANNs outperform the traditional logistic regression (LR) models. In addition, we also report that, thanks to the introduction of non-financial predictors related to age, the delay in filing accounts, legal action by creditors to recover unpaid debts, and the ownership features of the company, the improvement with respect to the use of solely financial information is 3.6%, which is even higher than the improvement that involves the use of the best ANN (2.6%)

Significado económico de los indicadores basados en la gestión del valor

Las Cuentas Anuales de numerosas empresas españolas cotizadas incorporan en sus memorias, como una prioridad estratégica, el objetivo de la creación de valor para los accionistas. Uno de los aspectos primordiales en un sistema de gestión basado en el valor es implantar un eficaz sistema de medida ad hoc. Aunque tradicionalmente se han venido utilizando técnicas tales como la rentabilidad neta, el beneficio residual o el valor actual neto para expresar el valor creado para los accionistas, asistimos hoy día a la introducción y aplicación de indicadores o parámetros que conceptualmente no aportan demasiado a los clásicos, y, a veces, llegan a ser más complejos y menos claros. Asi pues, el presente trabajo intenta aclarar, apoyándose en ejemplos numéricos, cuál es el sentido práctico de indicadores como el BE, EVA y MVA: si realmente miden la creación de valor para el accionista o, quizás, pueden ser utilizados como medidas de desempeño empresarial

Las Participaciones Empresariales de las Cajas de Ahorros Andaluzas.

Las relaciones banca-industria materializadas a través de las participaciones de las entidades financieras en el capital de otras empresas, especialmente no financieras, además de ser importantes en sí mismas, como demuestra la abundante literatura existente sobre el tema, han sido uno de los elementos tradicionalmente analizados para caracterizar al modelo bancario imperante en un país. En España, esto ha supuesto que las entidades financieras han contribuido y contribuyen de manera directa y activa a la creación y el desarrollo de empresas, lo que ha favorecido el crecimiento económico del país y el fortalecimiento del tejido empresarial. Ello nos lleva a intentar estudiar la relevancia de las participaciones empresariales de las entidades financieras en el desarrollo económico de Andalucía. Con este fin, el artículo se centra en las participaciones empresariales mantenidas por las cajas de ahorro andaluzas a lo largo del periodo 1991- 2001, al objeto de estudiar aspectos tales como las causas, orígenes, dimensión, rentabilidad, sectores de interés, evolución, etc., de las citadas participaciones. Todo ello nos permitirá comprender uno de los aspectos definitorios del sistema financiero andaluz

Hybrid model using logit and nonparametric methods for predicting micro-entity failure

Following the calls from literature on bankruptcy, a parsimonious hybrid bankruptcy model is developed in this paper by combining parametric and non-parametric approaches.To this end, the variables with the highest predictive power to detect bankruptcy are selected using logistic regression (LR). Subsequently, alternative non-parametric methods (Multilayer Perceptron, Rough Set, and Classification-Regression Trees) are applied, in turn, to firms classified as either “bankrupt” or “not bankrupt”. Our findings show that hybrid models, particularly those combining LR and Multilayer Perceptron, offer better accuracy performance and interpretability and converge faster than each method implemented in isolation. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that the introduction of non-financial and macroeconomic variables complement financial ratios for bankruptcy prediction