Is Pakistan’s Manufacturing Sector Competitive?

This paper attempts to examine the cost competitiveness of the manufacturing sector of Pakistan for the period 1972-73 to 2002-03. Given that the data on the value of cost expenditure has not been published after 1995, the paper relies on constructing a composite index of input prices and compares it with export price (taken as a proxy for output price, since the main focus here is on external competitiveness). The findings indicate that both the composite (weighted) factor input price and the non-factor input price indices have grown at a rate faster than the export price index during the sample period. Furthermore, the growth in the prices of energy, imported machinery, and wages stayed higher than that of the overall inflation. While investigating the pattern of productivity of the manufacturing sector, the paper reveals that although it increased over the sample period, its rate of growth has slowed down. And, for the most recent period, 1999- 03, productivity growth has failed even to offset the extent to which input price increases have outpaced increase in the export price. This creates the concern that if this situation goes on, over the course of time, the profits eventually will become negative and will put some producers/exporters out of business.Industry, Pakistan

Is Pakistan’s Manufacturing Sector Competitive?

The manufacturing sector of any country bears significant importance. Globalisation, and in particular, enhanced exports are generally believed to benefit developing countries. And with Pakistan’s exports concentrated largely in textile and semi-manufactures, the country needs to strengthen this sector. Since the foreigncurrency dominated export prices for developing countries are largely determined in the international market, any downward slide in them exerts a downward slide in foreign-exchange export earnings. It is therefore imperative, for a country like Pakistan, to prevent the decline in manufacturing output, not only to sustain but also to increase the export share and hence to gain external competitiveness in this sector

How External Shocks and Exchange Rate Depreciations Affect Pakistan? Implications for Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime

A structural vector autoregression (VAR) model shows that external shocks are important in driving economic fluctuations in Pakistan and their importance has increased since September 11, 2001. The primary source of external shocks is foreign remittances, while foreign output has a limited effect. Keeping fixed external factors, an exogenous real exchange rate depreciation shock lowers output—a positive effect on real net exports (largely resulting from import compression rather export expansion)—is more than offset by a decline in domestic demand. The absence of common shocks with major trading partners, the importance of remittances, conventional expansionary effects on the trade balance following a real currency depreciation, and only limited evidence that credibility of anti-inflationary policy would improve with a currency peg support greater exchange rate flexibility. However, the rather large contractionary effects of real exchange rate depreciation on domestic demand suggest that greater exchange rate flexibility could destabilize aggregate output.External Shocks; Depreciation; SVAR; Pakistan; Exchange rate

Decentralisation of GST Services and Vertical Imbalances in Pakistan

It is generally believed that the 7th National Finance Commission (NFC) Award and 18th Constitutional Amendment have taken a major step towards much needed fiscal decentralisation. While these two delegate more fiscal autonomy and transfers additional resources towards provinces, it seems difficult that tax decentralisation options provided in these two can practically be implemented. This assertion is based on historical tax decentralisation debate in Pakistan, which has made it a very complex issue in management of public finances. There are arguments both in favour and against tax decentralisation in Pakistan. Its proponents argue that tax decentralisation is an important principle of governance. They generally propose three advantages of fiscal decentralisation including; preference-matching, efficiency through competition, and increased accountability. In particular, a rational assignment of taxing powers helps providing each level of government, a control over its fiscal destiny by allowing it the choice in the level of spending. It helps assuring taxpayers that they are getting what they paid for and consequently may stimulate participation and improve/increase accountability. According to Bahl (1999), fiscal decentralisation assists in revenue mobilisation, innovation in economic activity, accountability of elected officials and grassroots participation in governance. Given this, it is probable that fiscal decentralisation lead towards improved efficiency in the use of resources as the residents in the sub-national governments can decide about their desired mix of public services and revenues that best suits them

A Spatial Analysis of Food Security in Bangladesh based on Climate Change, Management Practices, and Socio-economic Variables

Food security has become crucial in many developing countries, especially those with large populations, including Bangladesh. Future uncertainties about environmental and socio-economic changes, including climate change and the spatial variability thereof, need to be addressed. While it is well established that there are spatial differences in production, distribution and socio-economic conditions, no previous study on food security in Bangladesh has explicitly considered the spatial variability of factors that influence food security. The main objectives of this thesis are: (1) to understand the need and potential for spatially informed policy development; (2) to assess the spatially variable climate effects on three main rice ecotypes (Aus, Aman, and Boro) in Bangladesh during 1981-2010; (3) to evaluate the combined impact of both climate and management factors on total rice yield and (4) to understand the influence of household and regional capitals on food security in the North West region of Bangladesh. The rice yield data was collated from the Agricultural Statistical Year Book of Bangladesh for the study period of 1981-2010. The climatic and management practices database was collated from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and the Agricultural Statistical Year Book of Bangladesh respectively for the same time period. The present study also used the 2010 Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) dataset from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The results from the review of spatial aspects of food security implies the need to consider a regional food security assessment in the country (Chapter 2). The study indicated a potential way for better research and policy linkages in the country, to improve food security. The climatic conditions of the growing period have a significant influence on rice yield across Bangladesh. Furthermore, the magnitude of the impact is ecotype-specific. This analysis indicates that any increase in temperature would decrease regional rice yield for Aus and Aman in many districts of the country. However, regional Boro yield will derive benefit in some of the districts from increases in temperature (Chapter 3). A more detailed analysis evaluates the relative influence of climate variability and management variables of the rice yield in Bangladesh. The total rice yield was more strongly dependent on management factors than climatic variables. Water management, through various types of irrigation, has become the most important determinant of rice yield (Chapter 4). The key natural and management determinants were identified by the previous analysis (Chapter 3 and Chapter 4). Additional socio-economic factors were used for the subsequent analysis. Both household socio-economic assets and regional conditions were categorized as livelihood capitals in order to assess the influence of these on household calorie consumption and income. Physical and natural capitals exhibited a much greater share of explained variations in income than in calorie consumption. However, financial and human capitals are the catalysts for determining income. Diverse solutions to the livelihood outcomes will be useful in the long term in the case of the intense use of different household and regional capitals to improve food security (Chapter 5). Overall, the findings imply that policies to improve food security need to account for regional differences. Climate change, particularly temperature increase need to be considered as important, as this will affect the regional rice yield in most of the districts in Bangladesh. In addition to climate change, the means of irrigation will also impact on rice yield. The high dependence of rice production on the available means of irrigation implies that special attention needs to be given to the optimum use of ground water in order to sustain future use. On the other hand, sustainable socio-economic development may secure food access through an increase in income and nutrition consumption. The present thesis further suggests more region-specific investigations should be undertaken in order to understand spatial responses to food security, more completely, incorporating further climatic variables, natural resources, technological improvements and infrastructural development.Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Biological Sciences, 201

Phenomenological study of two minor zeros in neutrino mass matrix using trimaximal mixing

We study the phenomenological implications of two minor zeros in neutrino mass matrix using trimaximal mixing matrix. In this context, we analyse fifteen possible cases of two minor zeros in neutrino mass matrix and found only two cases, namely class $A_1$ and class $A_2$, that are compatible with the present neutrino oscillation data. We present correlations of several neutrino oscillation parameters and give prediction of the total neutrino mass, the values of effective Majorana mass, the effective electron anti-neutrino mass and CP violating Majorana phases for these two classes. We also explore the degree of fine tuning in the elements of neutrino mass matrix. Moreover, We propose a flavor model within the seesaw model along with $Z_{8}$ symmetry group to generate these classes.Comment: 16 pages, 36 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2212.1288

One vanishing minor in neutrino mass matrix using trimaximal mixing

We investigate the implications of one vanishing minor in neutrino mass matrix using trimaximal mixing matrix. In this context, we analyse all six patterns of one vanishing minor zero in neutrino mass matrix and present correlations of the neutrino oscillation parameters. All the six patterns are found to be phenomenologically viable with the present neutrino oscillation data. We also predict the values of effective Majorana mass, the effective electron anti-neutrino mass and the total neutrino mass for all the patterns. The value obtained for the effective neutrino mass is within the reach future neutrinoless double $\beta$ decay experiments. We also propose a flavor model where such patterns can be generated within the seesaw model.Comment: 22 pages, 44 figures, 8 table

Meteorological Drought Index Mapping in Bangladesh Using Standardized Precipitation Index during 1981–2010

Natural disasters are a major concern in Bangladesh, particularly drought which is one of the most common disaster in Bangladesh. Drought needs to be explained spatially to understand its spatiotemporal variations in different areas. In this paper, the meteorological drought has been shown by using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method and illustrated through the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method across Bangladesh. We used rainfall data of 30 meteorological stations in Bangladesh during the study period of 1981–2010. The results indicate that drought has been fluctuating and it has become a recurrent phenomenon during the study period. The SPI depicted the drought conditions that plunged dramatically in 1981, 1982, 1985, 1987, 1989, 1992, 1994, and 1996 and then gradually improved in 2004, 2006, and 2009 in the country. The present study demonstrated that drought occurred in Bangladesh on an average of 2.5 years. Drought was more prominent in the northern, south-western, and eastern regions in Bangladesh compared to the rest of the areas of the country. The outcomes of the present study will help in during disaster management strategies, particularly drought, by initiating effective plans and adaptation remedies in different areas of Bangladesh

Assessment of soil and water quality as affected by herbicide application in the rice field of Bangladesh

Weed is a vital constraint for crop especially rice cultivation. Among several techniques herbicidal weed control is thought to be efficient and cost effective method. But herbicide may change soil or water quality in rice field. Taking this into consideration a study was conducted to assess soil and water quality in herbicide applied rice field. The study was conducted in two phases. In first phase a list of herbicide was made according to the uses by the local farmers of Mymensingh district. It was found that among the herbicides wide used two herbicides were i. Laser (Pyrazosulphuron ethyl-10 WP) and ii. Changer (Acetachlor-14% + Bensulfuron methyl-4%). In the second phase, an experiment was conducted at Agronomy Field Laboratory, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh considering these two herbicides. It was found that the application of herbicide in the rice field did not change the nutrient content in the soil or water of rice field. But herbicide significantly reduced the microbial activity and increased the chlorine content (In case of herbicide 2 i.e. Acetachlor-14% + Bensulfuron methyl-4%) in both soil and water of rice field. Therefore, it can be concluded that though the nutrient content of the soil of rice field is not significantly affected by herbicide application but the presence of high amount of Cl content in the rice field may cause burning injury of rice leaf at the early stages of its growth which could affect the yield of rice