Development and external validation study of a melanoma risk prediction model incorporating clinically assessed naevi and solar lentigines

Background: Melanoma risk prediction models could be useful for matching preventive interventions to patients’ risk. Objectives: To develop and validate a model for incident first‐primary cutaneous melanoma using clinically assessed risk factors. Methods: We used unconditional logistic regression with backward selection from the Australian Melanoma Family Study (461 cases and 329 controls) in which age, sex and city of recruitment were kept in each step, and we externally validated it using the Leeds Melanoma Case–Control Study (960 cases and 513 controls). Candidate predictors included clinically assessed whole‐body naevi and solar lentigines, and self‐assessed pigmentation phenotype, sun exposure, family history and history of keratinocyte cancer. We evaluated the predictive strength and discrimination of the model risk factors using odds per age‐ and sex‐adjusted SD (OPERA) and the area under curve (AUC), and calibration using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. Results: The final model included the number of naevi ≥ 2 mm in diameter on the whole body, solar lentigines on the upper back (a six‐level scale), hair colour at age 18 years and personal history of keratinocyte cancer. Naevi was the strongest risk factor; the OPERA was 3·51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·71–4·54] in the Australian study and 2·56 (95% CI 2·23–2·95) in the Leeds study. The AUC was 0·79 (95% CI 0·76–0·83) in the Australian study and 0·73 (95% CI 0·70–0·75) in the Leeds study. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test P‐value was 0·30 in the Australian study and < 0·001 in the Leeds study. Conclusions: This model had good discrimination and could be used by clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for the targeting of preventive interventions. What's already known about this topic? Melanoma risk prediction models may be useful in prevention by tailoring interventions to personalized risk levels. For reasons of feasibility, time and cost many melanoma prediction models use self‐assessed risk factors. However, individuals tend to underestimate their naevus numbers. What does this study add? We present a melanoma risk prediction model, which includes clinically‐assessed whole‐body naevi and solar lentigines, and self‐assessed risk factors including pigmentation phenotype and history of keratinocyte cancer. This model performs well on discrimination, the model's ability to distinguish between individuals with and without melanoma, and may assist clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for targeted preventive interventions

Educational attainment of same-sex and opposite-sex dizygotic twins : An individual-level pooled study of 19 twin cohorts

Comparing twins from same- and opposite-sex pairs can provide information on potential sex differences in a variety of outcomes, including socioeconomic-related outcomes such as educational attainment. It has been suggested that this design can be applied to examine the putative role of intrauterine exposure to testosterone for educational attainment, but the evidence is still disputed. Thus, we established an international database of twin data from 11 countries with 88,290 individual dizygotic twins born over 100 years and tested for differences between twins from same- and opposite-sex dizygotic pairs in educational attainment. Effect sizes with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by linear regression models after adjusting for birth year and twin study cohort. In contrast to the hypothesis, no difference was found in women (β = −0.05 educational years, 95% CI −0.11, 0.02). However, men with a same-sex co-twin were slightly more educated than men having an opposite-sex co-twin (β = 0.14 educational years, 95% CI 0.07, 0.21). No consistent differences in effect sizes were found between individual twin study cohorts representing Europe, the USA, and Australia or over the cohorts born during the 20th century, during which period the sex differences in education reversed favoring women in the latest birth cohorts. Further, no interaction was found with maternal or paternal education. Our results contradict the hypothesis that there would be differences in the intrauterine testosterone levels between same-sex and opposite-sex female twins affecting education. Our findings in men may point to social dynamics within same-sex twin pairs that may benefit men in their educational careers.Peer reviewe

Genome-wide association study identifies multiple loci associated with both mammographic density and breast cancer risk

Mammographic density reflects the amount of stromal and epithelial tissues in relation to adipose tissue in the breast and is a strong risk factor for breast cancer. Here we report the results from meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of three mammographic density phenotypes: dense area, non-dense area and percent density in up to 7,916 women in stage 1 and an additional 10,379 women in stage 2. We identify genome-wide significant (P<5×10−8) loci for dense area (AREG, ESR1, ZNF365, LSP1/TNNT3, IGF1, TMEM184B, SGSM3/MKL1), non-dense area (8p11.23) and percent density (PRDM6, 8p11.23, TMEM184B). Four of these regions are known breast cancer susceptibility loci, and four additional regions were found to be associated with breast cancer (P<0.05) in a large meta-analysis. These results provide further evidence of a shared genetic basis between mammographic density and breast cancer and illustrate the power of studying intermediate quantitative phenotypes to identify putative disease susceptibility loci

Associations between birth size and later height from infancy through adulthood:an individual based pooled analysis of 28 twin cohorts participating in the CODATwins project

Background: There is evidence that birth size is positively associated with height in later life, but it remains unclear whether this is explained by genetic factors or the intrauterine environment. Aim: To analyze the associations of birth weight, length and ponderal index with height from infancy through adulthood within mono- and dizygotic twin pairs, which provides insights into the role of genetic and environmental individual-specific factors. Methods: This study is based on the data from 28 twin cohorts in 17 countries. The pooled data included 41,852 complete twin pairs (55% monozygotic and 45% same-sex dizygotic) with information on birth weight and a total of 112,409 paired height measurements at ages ranging from 1 to 69 years. Birth length was available for 19,881 complete twin pairs, with a total of 72,692 paired height measurements. The association between birth size and later height was analyzed at both the individual and within-pair level by linear regression analyses. Results: Within twin pairs, regression coefficients showed that a 1-kg increase in birth weight and a 1-cm increase in birth length were associated with 1.14-4.25 cm and 0.18-0.90 cm taller height, respectively. The magnitude of the associations was generally greater within dizygotic than within monozygotic twin pairs, and this difference between zygosities was more pronounced for birth length. Conclusion: Both genetic and individual-specific environmental factors play a role in the association between birth size and later height from infancy to adulthood, with a larger role for genetics in the association with birth length than with birth weight.This work was supported by the Academy of Finland (grant number #266592). The Australian Twin Registry is supported by a Centre of Research Excellence (grant ID 1079102) from the National Health and Medical Research Council administered by the University of Melbourne. The Boston University Twin Project is funded by grants (#R01 HD068435 #R01 MH062375) from the National Institutes of Health to K. Saudino. The Carolina African American Twin Study of Aging (CAATSA) was funded by a grant from the National Institute on Aging (grant 1RO1-AG13662-01A2) to K. E. Whitfield. The CATSS-Study is supported by the Swedish Research Council through the Swedish Initiative for Research on Microdata in the Social And Medical Sciences (SIMSAM) framework grant no 340-2013-5867, grants provided by the Stockholm County Council (ALF-projects), the Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation and the Swedish Asthma and Allergy Association's Research Foundation. Colorado Twin Registry is funded by NIDA funded center grant DA011015, & Longitudinal Twin Study HD10333; Author Huibregtse is supported by 5T32DA017637 and 5T32AG052371. Since its origin the East Flanders Prospective Survey has been partly supported by grants from the Fund of Scientific Research, Flanders and Twins, a non-profit Association for Scientific Research in Multiple Births (Belgium). Data collection and analyses in Finnish twin cohorts have been supported by ENGAGE - European Network for Genetic and Genomic Epidemiology, FP7-HEALTH-F4-2007, grant agreement number 201413, National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (grants AA-12502, AA-00145, and AA-09203 to R J Rose, the Academy of Finland Center of Excellence in Complex Disease Genetics (grant numbers: 213506, 129680), Centre of Excellence in Research on Mitochondria, Metabolism and Disease (FinMIT, grant 272376), the Academy of Finland (grants 100499, 205585, 118555, 141054, 265240, 263278 and 264146 to J Kaprio and grant 266286 and 314383 to K Pietilainen), the Finnish Diabetes Research Foundation, Novo Nordisk Foundation, Helsinki University Central Hospital and University of Helsinki. K Silventoinen is supported by Osaka University's International Joint Research Promotion Program. Gemini was supported by a grant from Cancer Research UK (C1418/A7974). Anthropometric measurements of the Hungarian twins were supported by Medexpert Ltd., Budapest, Hungary. Korean Twin-Family Register was supported by the Global Research Network Program of the National Research Foundation (NRF 2011-220-E00006). Longitudinal Israeli Study of Twins was funded by the Starting Grant no. 240994 from the European Research Council (ERC) to Ariel Knafo. The Michigan State University Twin Registry has been supported by Michigan State University, as well as grants R01-MH081813, R01-MH0820-54, R01-MH092377-02, R21-MH070542-01, R03-MH63851-01 from the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH), R01-HD066040 from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute for Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), and 11-SPG-2518 from the MSU Foundation. The content of this manuscript is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the NIMH, the NICHD, or the National Institutes of Health. PETS was supported by grants from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (grant numbers 437015 and 607358 to JC, and RS), the Bonnie Babes Foundation (grant number BBF20704 to JMC), the Financial Markets Foundation for Children (grant no. r 032-2007 to JMC), and by the Victorian Governments Operational Infrastructure Support Program. The Quebec Newborn Twin Study acknowledges financial support from the Fonds Quebecois de la Recherche sur la Societe et la Culture, the Fonds de la Recherche en Sante du Quebec, the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the National Health Research Development Program, the Canadian Institutes for Health Research, Sainte-Justine Hospital's Research Center, and the Canada Research Chair Program (Michel Boivin). The Twins Early Development Study (TEDS) is supported by a program grant (MR/M021475/1) from the UK Medical Research Council and the work on obesity in TEDS is supported in part by a grant from the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (31/D19086). The West Japan Twins and Higher Order Multiple Births Registry was supported by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) (grant number 15H05105) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. Netherlands Twin Register acknowledges the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) and MagW/ZonMW grants 904-61-090, 985-10-002, 912-10-020, 904-61-193, 480-04-004, 463-06-001, 451-04-034, 400-05-717, Addiction-31160008, Middelgroot-911-09-032, Spinozapremie 56-464-14192; VU University's Institute for Health and Care Research (EMGO +); the European Research Council (ERC - 230374), the Avera Institute, Sioux Falls, South Dakota (USA)

Understanding the genetic complexity of puberty timing across the allele frequency spectrum

Pubertal timing varies considerably and is associated with later health outcomes. We performed multi-ancestry genetic analyses on ~800,000 women, identifying 1,080 signals for age at menarche. Collectively, these explained 11% of trait variance in an independent sample. Women at the top and bottom 1% of polygenic risk exhibited ~11 and ~14-fold higher risks of delayed and precocious puberty, respectively. We identified several genes harboring rare loss-of-function variants in ~200,000 women, including variants in ZNF483, which abolished the impact of polygenic risk. Variant-to-gene mapping approaches and mouse gonadotropin-releasing hormone neuron RNA sequencing implicated 665 genes, including an uncharacterized G-protein-coupled receptor, GPR83, which amplified the signaling of MC3R, a key nutritional sensor. Shared signals with menopause timing at genes involved in DNA damage response suggest that the ovarian reserve might signal centrally to trigger puberty. We also highlight body size-dependent and independent mechanisms that potentially link reproductive timing to later life disease

C2-C7 hydrocarbon concentrations in Arctic snowpack interstitial air: potential presence of active Br within the snowpack

Samples of interstitial air from within the snow pack on an ice floe on the Arctic Ocean were collected during the April 1994 Polar Sunrise Experiment. The concentrations of C2-C7 hydrocarbons are reported for the first time in the snow pack interstitial air. Alkane concentrations tended to be higher than concentrations in free air samples above the snow but very similar to winter measurements at various locations in the Arctic archipelago. However, ethyne concentrations in both interstitial and free air were highly correlated with ozone mixing ratios, consistent with previous demonstrations of the effects of Br atom chemistry. The analysis of total bromine within the snow pack indicate an enrichment in total Br at the interface layer between snow and free troposphere. The mixing ratios of some brominated compounds, such as CHBr3 and CHBr2Cl, are found to be higher in this top layer of snow relative to the boundary layer. Results were inconclusive due to the limited number of samples, but suggest the possible presence of active bromine in the snow pack and also that some differences exist between chemical reactions occurring in interstitial air compared to air in the boundary layer

Applications of Electro-Osmotic Transport in the Processing of Textiles

We report development of a pilot process for the industrial rinsing of fabrics. This process combines hydraulic (pressure-driven) transport with electro-osmotic transport. It reduces the total amount of water required in certain rinsing operations by a factor of about five. Cotton exhibits an electro-osmotic transport coefficient of about 6 x 10{sup -9} m{sup 2}/s-V resulting from a partial ionization of hydroxyl groups on the cellulose polymer substrate. This process applies a field transverse to the fabric to effect the movement of water in the spaces between the 10 {micro}m cotton fibers which constitute the yam. The field strength is adjusted so that the induced electro-osmotic flux is comparable to a pressure-driven flux, which moves preferentially in the more open channels between the yams. For a fixed current density, solution conductivity and electro-osmotic transport vary inversely. The process is most practical for removal of liquids of relatively low conductivity (&lt;500 {micro}S/cm). For removal of solutions of conductivity greater than 1200 {micro}S/cm, the rate of electro-osmotic flow may be too low to benefit the rinsing process if current densities are restricted to practical levels of about 30 mA/cm{sup 2}. Electra-osmotic transport may have important applications in wet processing of extremely fine textiles, such as micro fiber fabrics. In addition to rinsing, electro-osmotic transport may also be used to speed the penetration of chemicals and dyestuffs that are applied to the surface of wet textiles

Measurements of C2-C7 hydrocarbons during the polar sunrise experiment 1994: Further evidence for halogen chemistry in the troposphere

Air samples for nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) analysis were collected at two ground‐based sites: Alert, Northwest Territories (82.5°N, 62.3°W) and Narwhal ice camp, an ice floe 140 km northwest of Alert, from Julian days 90 to 117, 1994, and on a 2‐day aerial survey conducted on Julian days 89 and 90, 1994 over the Arctic archipelago. Several ozone depletion events and concurrent decreases in hydrocarbon concentrations relative to their background levels were observed at Alert and Narwhal ice camp. At Narwhal, a long period (≥7 days) of ozone depletion was observed during which a clear decay of alkane concentration occurred. A kinetic analysis led to a calculated Cl atom concentration of 4.5 × 103 cm−3 during this period. Several low‐ozone periods concurrent with NMHC concentration decreases were observed over a widespread region of the Arctic region (82°–85°N, and 51°–65°W). Hydrocarbon measurements during the aerial survey indicated that the low concentrations of these species occurred only in the boundary layer. In all ozone depletion periods, concentration changes of alkanes and toluene were consistent with Cl atom reactions. The changes in ethyne concentration from its background level were in excess of those expected from Cl atom kinetics alone and are attributed to additional Br atom reactions. A box modeling exercise suggested that the Cl and particularly Br atom concentrations required to explain the hydrocarbon behavior are also sufficient to destroy ozone