The energy consumption of passenger vehicles in a transformed mobility system with autonomous, shared and fit-for-purpose electric vehicles in the Netherlands

Aims: This article explores the tank-to-wheel energy consumption of passenger transport at full adoption of fit-for-purpose shared and autonomous electric vehicles. Background: The energy consumption of passenger transport is increasing every year. Electrification of vehicles reduces their energy consumption significantly but is not the only disruptive trend in mobility. Shared fleets and autonomous driving are also expected to have large impacts and lead to fleets with one-person fit-for-purpose vehicles. The energy consumption of passenger transport in such scenarios is rarely discussed and we have not yet seen attempts to quantify it. Objective: The objective of this study is to quantify the tank-to-wheel energy consumption of passenger transport when the vehicle fleet is comprised of shared autonomous and electric fit-for-purpose vehicles and where cheap and accessible mobility leads to significantly increased mobility demand. Methodology: The approach consists of four steps. First, describing the key characteristics of a future mobility system with fit-for-purpose shared autonomous electric vehicles. Second, estimating the vehicle miles traveled in such a scenario. Third, estimating the energy use of the fit-for-purpose vehicles. And last, multiplying the mileages and energy consumptions of the vehicles and scaling the results with the population of the Netherlands. Results: Our findings show that the daily tank-to-wheel energy consumption from Dutch passenger transport in full adoption scenarios of shared autonomous electric vehicles ranges from 700 Wh to 2200 Wh per capita. This implies a reduction of 90% to 70% compared to the current situation. Conclusion: Full adoption of shared autonomous electric vehicles could increase the vehicle-miles-travelled and thus energy use of passenger transport by 30% to 150%. Electrification of vehicles reduces energy consumption by 75%. Autonomous driving has the potential of reducing the energy consumption by up to 40% and implementing one-person fit-for-purpose vehicles by another 50% to 60%. For our case study of the Netherlands, this means that the current 600 TJ/day that is consumed by passenger vehicles will be reduced to about 50 to 150 TJ/day at full adoption of SAEVs.</p

Quantifying the Fleet Composition at Full Adoption of Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicles:An Agent-based Approach

Aims: Exploring the impact of full adoption of fit-for-demand shared and autonomous electric vehicles on the passenger vehicle fleet of a society. Background: Shared Eutonomous Electric Vehicles (SAEVs) are expected to have a disruptive impact on the mobility sector. Reduced cost for mobility and increased accessibility will induce new mobility demand and the vehicles that provide it will be fit-for-demand vehicles. Both these aspects have been qualitatively covered in recent research, but there have not yet been attempts to quantify fleet compositions in scenarios where passenger transport is dominated by fit-for-demand, one-person autonomous vehicles. Objective: To quantify the composition of the future vehicle fleet when all passenger vehicles are autonomous, shared and fit-for-demand and where cheap and accessible mobility has significantly increased the mobility demand. Methods: An agent-based model is developed to model detailed travel dynamics of a large population. Numerical data is used to mimic actual driving motions in the Netherlands. Next, passenger vehicle trips are changed to trips with fit-for-demand vehicles, and new mobility demand is added in the form of longer tips, more frequent trips, modal shifts from public transport, redistribution of shared vehicles, and new user groups. Two scenarios are defined for the induced mobility demand from SAEVs, one scenario with limited increased mobility demand, and one scenario with more than double the current mobility demand. Three categories of fit-for-demand vehicles are stochastically mapped to all vehicle trips based on each trip's characteristics. The vehicle categories contain two one-person vehicle types and one multi-person vehicle type. Results: The simulations show that at full adoption of SAEVs, the maximum daily number of passenger vehicles on the road increases by 60% to 180%. However, the total fleet size could shrink by up to 90% if the increase in mobility demand is limited. An 80% reduction in fleet size is possible at more than doubling the current mobility demand. Additionally, about three-quarters of the SAEVs can be small one-person vehicles. Conclusion: Full adoption of fit-for-demand SAEVs is expected to induce new mobility demand. However, the results of this research indicate that there would be 80% to 90% less vehicles required in such a situation, and the vast majority would be one-person vehicles. Such vehicles are less resource-intense and, because of their size and electric drivetrains, are significantly more energy-efficient than the average current-day vehicle. This research indicates the massive potential of SAEVs to lower both the cost and the environmental impact of the mobility sector. Quantification of these environmental benefits and reduced mobility costs are proposed for further research.</p

Dichotomal effect of space flight-associated microgravity on stress-activated protein kinases in innate immunity

Space flight strongly moderates human immunity but is in general well tolerated. Elucidation of the mechanisms by which zero gravity interacts with human immunity may provide clues for developing rational avenues to deal with exaggerated immune responses, e.g. as in autoimmune disease. Using two sounding rockets and one manned Soyuz launch, the influence of space flight on immunological signal transduction provoked by lipopolysaccharide (LPS) stimulation was investigated in freshly isolated peripheral blood monocytes and was compared to samples obtained from on-board centrifuge-loaded 1a'...g controls. The effect of microgravity on immunological signal transduction is highly specific, since LPS dependent Jun-N-terminal kinase activation is impaired in the 0a'...g condition, while the corresponding LPS dependent activation of p38 MAP kinase remains unaffected. Thus our results identify Jun-N-terminal kinase as a relevant target in immunity for microgravity and support using Jun-N-terminal kinase specific inhibitors for combating autoimmune disease

On the History and Future of 100% Renewable Energy Systems Research

Research on 100% renewable energy systems is a relatively recent phenomenon. It was initiated in the mid-1970s, catalyzed by skyrocketing oil prices. Since the mid-2000s, it has quickly evolved into a prominent research field encompassing an expansive and growing number of research groups and organizations across the world. The main conclusion of most of these studies is that 100% renewables is feasible worldwide at low cost. Advanced concepts and methods now enable the field to chart realistic as well as cost- or resource-optimized and efficient transition pathways to a future without the use of fossil fuels. Such proposed pathways in turn, have helped spur 100% renewable energy policy targets and actions, leading to more research. In most transition pathways, solar energy and wind power increasingly emerge as the central pillars of a sustainable energy system combined with energy efficiency measures. Cost-optimization modeling and greater resource availability tend to lead to higher solar photovoltaic shares, while emphasis on energy supply diversification tends to point to higher wind power contributions. Recent research has focused on the challenges and opportunities regarding grid congestion, energy storage, sector coupling, electrification of transport and industry implying power-to-X and hydrogen-to-X, and the inclusion of natural and technical carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches. The result is a holistic vision of the transition towards a net-negative greenhouse gas emissions economy that can limit global warming to 1.5°C with a clearly defined carbon budget in a sustainable and cost-effective manner based on 100% renewable energy-industry-CDR systems. Initially, the field encountered very strong skepticism. Therefore, this paper also includes a response to major critiques against 100% renewable energy systems, and also discusses the institutional inertia that hampers adoption by the International Energy Agency and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as well as possible negative connections to community acceptance and energy justice. We conclude by discussing how this emergent research field can further progress to the benefit of society

On the history and future of 100% renewable energy systems research

Research on 100% renewable energy systems is a relatively recent phenomenon. It was initiated in the mid-1970s, catalyzed by skyrocketing oil prices. Since the mid-2000s, it has quickly evolved into a prominent research field encompassing an expansive and growing number of research groups and organizations across the world. The main conclusion of most of these studies is that 100% renewables is feasible worldwide at low cost. Advanced concepts and methods now enable the field to chart realistic as well as cost- or resource-optimized and efficient transition pathways to a future without the use of fossil fuels. Such proposed pathways in turn, have helped spur 100% renewable energy policy targets and actions, leading to more research. In most transition pathways, solar energy and wind power increasingly emerge as the central pillars of a sustainable energy system combined with energy efficiency measures. Cost-optimization modeling and greater resource availability tend to lead to higher solar photovoltaic shares, while emphasis on energy supply diversification tends to point to higher wind power contributions. Recent research has focused on the challenges and opportunities regarding grid congestion, energy storage, sector coupling, electrification of transport and industry implying power-to-X and hydrogen-to-X, and the inclusion of natural and technical carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches. The result is a holistic vision of the transition towards a net-negative greenhouse gas emissions economy that can limit global warming to 1.5˚C with a clearly defined carbon budget in a sustainable and cost-effective manner based on 100% renewable energy-industry-CDR systems. Initially, the field encountered very strong skepticism. Therefore, this paper also includes a response to major critiques against 100% renewable energy systems, and also discusses the institutional inertia that hampers adoption by the International Energy Agency and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as well as possible negative connections to community acceptance and energy justice. We conclude by discussing how this emergent research field can further progress to the benefit of society

The underestimated potential of battery electric vehicles to reduce emissions

\u3cp\u3eGreenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions possible with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are underestimated in the scientific literature. The following causes are identified and illustrated: overestimating battery manufacturing, underestimating battery lifetime, assuming an unchanged electricity mix over the lifetime of the BEV, using unrealistic tests for energy use, excluding fuel production emissions, and lack of system thinking. In an example calculation, BEVs reduce emissions from 244 to 98 g/km. In a fully renewable system, BEV emission could decrease to 10 g/km.\u3c/p\u3

Characteristics of Dutch EV drivers

There has been little research towards the characteristics of Dutch electric vehicle (EV) drivers. This paper describes the result of focus groups and a survey with 286 respondents. Results indicate the current EV driver is predominantly a well-educated middle aged male with a high paying job. We link this to the price of the vehicles and the structure of tax incentives. He is moderately environmentally friendly and likes innovation. He loves the driving experience and promotes EVs towards friends. Most EV drivers are unsatisfied with their all electric range and on average a range of 375 km is desired. Bigger batteries will lead to better use of charging infrastructure. Fast charging is considered important for longer trips but not as a replacement for chargers at parking locations. Smart charging is well received - as long as the user stays in control - which bodes well for the synergy between EVs and the renewable electricity grid.</p