How Sustainable are Global Imbalances?

Global economic imbalances have continued to widen in recent years, reaching unprecedented levels, and are now one of the major issues in international economics.

A Discussion of the Taylor Rule

This paper reviews the recent changes in monetary policy in the major economies relative to the Taylor rule.

The Chinese Economy: Emergence and Evolution

This paper reviews China’s economic performance, and examines from, both a domestic and global perspective, some of the issues that its rapid economic rise has brought to the fore.

Cross-sectional validation of the Aging Perceptions Questionnaire: a multidimensional instrument for assessing self-perceptions of aging

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Self-perceptions of aging have been implicated as independent predictors of functional disability and mortality in older adults. In spite of this, research on self-perceptions of aging is limited. One reason for this is the absence of adequate measures. Specifically, there is a need to develop a measure that is theoretically-derived, has good psychometric properties, and is multidimensional in nature. The present research seeks to address this need by adopting the Self-Regulation Model as a framework and using it to develop a comprehensive, multi-dimensional instrument for assessing self-perceptions of aging. This study describes the validation of this newly-developed instrument, the Aging Perceptions Questionnaire (APQ).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participants were 2,033 randomly selected community-dwelling older (+65 yrs) Irish adults who completed the APQ alongside measures of physical and psychological health. The APQ assesses self-perceptions of aging along eight distinct domains or subscales; seven of these examine views about own aging, these are: timeline chronic, timeline cyclical, consequences positive, consequences negative, control positive, control negative, and emotional representations; the eighth domain is the identity domain and this examines the experience of health-related changes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mokken scale analysis showed that the majority of items within the views about aging subscales were strongly scalable. Confirmatory factor analysis also indicated that the model provided a good fit for the data. Overall, subscales had good internal reliabilities. Hierarchical linear regression was conducted to investigate the independent contribution of APQ subscales to physical and psychological health and in doing so determine the construct validity of the APQ. Results showed that self-perceptions of aging were independently related to physical and psychological health. Mediation testing also supported a role for self-perceptions of aging as partial mediators in the relationship between indices of physical functioning and physical and psychological health outcomes.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Findings support the complex and multifaceted nature of the aging experience. The good internal reliability and construct validity of the subscales suggests that the APQ is a promising instrument that can enable a theoretically informed, multidimensional assessment of self-perceptions of aging. The potential role of self-perceptions of aging in facilitating physical and psychological health in later life is also highlighted.</p

AI is a viable alternative to high throughput screening: a 318-target study

: High throughput screening (HTS) is routinely used to identify bioactive small molecules. This requires physical compounds, which limits coverage of accessible chemical space. Computational approaches combined with vast on-demand chemical libraries can access far greater chemical space, provided that the predictive accuracy is sufficient to identify useful molecules. Through the largest and most diverse virtual HTS campaign reported to date, comprising 318 individual projects, we demonstrate that our AtomNet® convolutional neural network successfully finds novel hits across every major therapeutic area and protein class. We address historical limitations of computational screening by demonstrating success for target proteins without known binders, high-quality X-ray crystal structures, or manual cherry-picking of compounds. We show that the molecules selected by the AtomNet® model are novel drug-like scaffolds rather than minor modifications to known bioactive compounds. Our empirical results suggest that computational methods can substantially replace HTS as the first step of small-molecule drug discovery

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Effects of Climate Change on Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever and Public Health Implications in Western Montana

As climate change progresses, vector-borne diseases will spatially spread to novel environmental niches. Among those vector-borne diseases is Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever (RMSF), a tick-borne disease (TBD) that is caused by the bacteria Rickettsia Rickettsii. To predict the spread of RMSF, we modeled future climate scenarios using environmental variables from western Montana. Using this model, we have designed a protocol to enable and promote public awareness of vector-borne diseases. These interventional measures aim to anticipate and decrease disease prevalence through distribution of information about risk factors, symptoms, and treatment options. Our health promotion strategy encompasses two crucial aspects in outreach: first to reinforce healthcare providers and facilitators, and secondly to educate and enable the public to take initiative in regards to their health. Healthcare providers and facilitators will be reinforced through seminars we will design that discuss the interventional methods described above (Figure 7). Public outreach that promotes self-prevention of RMSF will include creating fliers, informational pieces such as articles on the possible spread of RMSF, and educational programs that target students in at-risk areas for RMSF. RMSF in Montana represents a microcosm of a greater climate-driven global threat to human health. This combined methodology tackles the imminent threat of RMSF to the Western Montana area