Lifestyles and Energy Use in Human Food Chains

The supply of food is one of the most energy consuming tasks in a society. Even in highly industrialized countries more fossil energy is spent in the food sector than in industry. Usually some 30% of the overall fossil energy consumption is used just for feeding the population. This, however, includes everything -- from the production of fertilizers and agricultural machinery to the fueling of irrigation pumps and drainage systems; from energy use in cultivation and harvesting, to energy consumption in processing, storage, transportation, and preparation of food. Only a small -- and declining -- proportion of the total fossil energy consumption in the food sector is spent for food production -- most of it (some 90%) goes to the processing, storage, conservation, transport and preparation of food. Contrary to conventional wisdom it is not the high-tech farmers who are responsible for the enormous energy consumption in the food sector. It is the food industries, food traders, restaurants and households which spend most of the fossil energy in the food system. This is the reason, why lifestyles are much more important for studying energetic efficiency in food chains than the frequently analyzed input-output rates in agricultural production. This paper argues that the energy efficiency of food must be analyzed for whole food chains - including production, harvesting, slaughtering, processing, storage, transportation and preparation in the household

How Many People Can Be Fed On Earth?

This working paper examines the question whether food is a limiting factor for population growth. It argues that we must distinguish five levels of food production capacity: (1) the biophysical maximum carrying capacity of the earth, which is roughly equivalent to its "Net Primary Production" (NPP). This purely hypothetical production potential, however, must be decreased due to various constraints and restrictions. Thus, we must study the world's food production capacity as determined by (2) technical and logistic restrictions limitations, (3) environmental constraints and feedback mechanisms, (4) economic limitations, and (5) socio-cultural conditions. The key for balancing people and food is the speed with which constraints can be pushed back or modified that hinder people to utilize the full potential of the earth's food resources in a sustainable way. Technology could easily increase the earth's carrying capacity for sustaining a 12 to 14 billion world population if it is applied with ecological care and in the framework of an economically sound and socially-just development policy. The carrying capacity of the earth is not a natural constant -- it is a dynamic equilibrium, essentially determined by human action

Lifestyles and Global Land-use Change

One of the most influential publications on land-use change is a small booklet, published by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme (HDP). It was written -- as its subtitle says -- as a "proposal for an IGBP-HDP Core Project" on "Relating Land Use and Global Land-Cover Change". The booklet can be seen as some kind of programmatic statement to guide international collaborative research on global land-use change. Unfortunately, the publication promotes a rather biased view of global land-use change. Using questionable statistics the authors conclude that the main focus of research should be the detailed investigation of changes in the rural land use. Urban areas and their infrastructures are considered irrelevant. As a consequence almost all attention is given to arable cultivation and livestock production -- with some interest left over to the forest sector. Population growth and the associate rising food demand are usually considered the main driving forces of global land-use change. In this chapter I will argue that rural land use is only one of the processes which are shaping the globe's land cover. There are other and probably more important land-use changes which are caused by urbanization, infrastructure expansion, industrial production, or changes in consumption patterns and lifestyles. These changes in build-up land might affect only relatively small areas -- as compared to the huge areas of forests and agricultural land. But they are often much more persistent and intrusive. Once a patch of land is sealed off by tons of concrete or highway pavement it is extremely difficult if not impossible to transform it back into a natural ecosystem. Once a valley was filled up with giga-tons of water for a reservoir or a gigantic hole was dug in an open pit mine, we have an almost irreversible land-cover modification. Moreover, I will claim that agricultural land-use change is not only caused b increasing food demand due to population growth (as people usually assume) but also by changes in lifestyles and food preferences which are driven b economic modernization and urbanization. The paper presents FAO data whic indicate that probably some 20 percent of the arable land world-wide is alread cultivated for lifestyle-related products, such as drugs, tobacco, coffee, tea sugar beet, sugar cane, cocoa, or cotton. There is a trend towards animal-base food in many parts of the world, notably in China where per capita meat consumption has significantly increased during the past 20 years. In Europe Western Asia, and Northern America changing food preferences have cause growing demand for vegetable oils. These are just the most obvious examples o certain (feed) crop areas, such as the expansion of soybean production i Brazil or the increase of oil crops cultivation in Europe Changes in rural land-use are often caused by driving forces which emanat from the urban centers of industrialized countries

Sustainable Regional and Rural Development in China: Where do we stand?

This Interim Report (IR) gives a short overview of the current state of "regional" and "rural development" research in China, reflecting the international English language literature on the subject. Its aim is to identify leading themes and trends in current research. This should help us identify deficiencies and gaps in our knowledge, which could become areas for further investigation. In particular, the report outlines research topics that are policy relevant and could lead to recommendations on how China might promote development in interior provinces and rural areas

World Population Prospects: Analyzing the 1996 UN Population Projections

This working paper analyzes the most recent population assessments and projections (the 1996 edition), conducted by the United Nations Population Division, New York. Its main objective is to cut through the maze of available data and identify ten demographic trends, which are most relevant for studying global (land-use) change. The paper also discusses possibilities for improving the accuracy of population projections by applying probabilistic methods or a scenario approach. Finally, the paper analyzes factors that might affect future trends in world population growth, such as global food constraints or a widespread health crisis due to AIDS

Selected Demographic Aspects of a United Germany

The paper gives a first sketch of demographic patterns in the united Germany. It primarily focuses on regional divergences in population density, age structure, sex ratio, nuptiality, fertility, mortality and natural population growth. The paper then presents data to demonstrate that the (future?) German capital, Berlin, is located far away from the demographic center of the united Germany in a sparsely populated area. To estimate the consequences of the unification for population distribution, the paper calculates the demographic gravity centers of the FRG, the GDR, and the united Germany. Finally, a locational profile of selected German cities (including Frankfurt and Berlin) is calculated to determine their demographic centrality

Projections of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic for Homosexual/Bisexual Men and Intravenous Drug Users in Five European Countries

Projections of the spread of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and of its etiologic agent, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), are presented for homosexual/bisexual men and intravenous drug users in the five European countries with the largest caseloads. The results suggest that the HIV epidemic for French, German, and British homosexual/bisexual men has peaked around 1985 and declined rapidly thereafter. By the end of the century, and for a median incubation period m of AIDS equal to 8 years, the total numbers infected in these groups are predicted to be about 31,000, 15,000, and 9,000, respectively. (These estimates more than double if m is taken equal to 12 years). The results suggest that the HIV epidemic among Italian and Spanish intravenous drug users (IVDUs) peaked in 1986 and also decreased rapidly thereafter. For an assumed median incubation period m of 8 years, the total number of infected IVDUs by the end of the century is predicted to be about 22,000 and 16,000 in Italy and Spain, respectively. (Again, these estimates more than double if m is taken equal to 12 years.) The projections suggest that in the late 1980s or early 1990s the annual incidence of AIDS cases among IVDUs in Spain and Italy will overtake the incidences of homosexual/bisexual AIDS cases in the Federal Republic of Germany and the United Kingdom. In all cases the annual incidence of AIDS will reach its maximum in the early to mid 1990s. However, the AIDS epidemic will be protracted because of the long incubation period

AIDS and HIV Surveillance in Europe

As of June 30, 1988, 14,299 European cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) had been reported to the World Health Organization; 81 percent of these cases were diagnosed in France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Spain. There were 7,689 homosexual or bisexual cases (54 percent); 3,218 (23 percent) were intravenous (IV) drug abusers; and 1,043 (7 percent) were heterosexuals who had had sexual intercourse with an infected individual. The epidemic started in the early 1980s among homosexuals and resident of African countries who came to Europe for treatment. AIDS started spreading later, in 1983 and 1984, to the IV drug abusing community in which the epidemic is now spreading faster than in any other group. Short term predictions show that by 1989 there may be 56,400 AIDS cases in the European Community alone. The World Health Organization estimates that there are approximately 480,000 persons in Europe infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the causative agent of AIDS. The crucial factor concerning the future of the HIV epidemic remains the extent to which the virus will spread beyond the high-risk groups and into the population at large. It is certain however that given the long incubation period of AIDS and the large number of people who are known to be infected, Europe will live through a protracted epidemic that will last at least another decade or two