OKUN’S LAW AND ASSESSMENT OF STIMULUS TO THE ECONOMY OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Effects of corona virus pandemics are omnipresent in national economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Output and unemployment are probably the most important variables for measuring negative effects of the pandemics from macroeconomic perspective. Different organisations, both national and international, have announced their autumn and winter prognoses of these variables for 2020. None of them are optimistic. Bosnian economy has been hit by the worst recession in the last two decades. International Monetary Fund approved US$ 361 million in urgent support to BiH in 2020 to alleviate the COVID-19 negative economic consequences. This paper investigates potential economic impact of that financial support with application of simple arithmetic. In the paper the Okun’s law is used as methodological framework to assessing effects of the IMF rapid financial instrument. Relationship between real economic growth and change in unemployment rate is estimated for BiH economy and it served as a basis for analysis of potential impact of the IMF financial support. Findings of the paper show that the IMF financial support effect amounts to about 3.7% of GDP of BiH. Effects on the unemployment rate are estimated to 2.3 percentage points less from what it would otherwise have been. Since the early estimations of the GDP in BiH indicated deep recession in 2020 this financial support proved to be insufficient stimulus to BiH economy. Decision makers in the country should be aware of their responsibility for providing larger stimulus packages in order to avoid bad economic and social outcomes in the near future

EFEKTI STRANIH DIREKTNIH ULAGANJA IZ JUŽNIH ZEMALJA U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI

Strana direktna ulaganja (SDU) u svijetu većim dijelom teku od razvijenihzemalja prema zemljama u razvoju. U posljednje vrijeme uočava se novi smjer utom obrascu jer sve veća finansijska sredstva iz zemalja u razvoju i sa tržišta unastajanju bivaju usmjerena ka razvijenim zemljama, EU i evropskim zemljama,Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama (SAD) i Japanu. U radu se analiziraju efektiSDU u Bosni i Hercegovini koja dolaze iz zemalja u razvoju sa ciljem kreiranjaempirijske podloge za preispitivanje postojećeg, prevladavajućeg teorijskogznanja, a koje bi moglo biti od koristi donosiocima odluka u BiH i drugimzainteresiranim subjektima. U radu je primijenjena makroekonomska analizaprimarnih i sekundarnih podataka o ukupnim SDU u BiH, u razdoblju od 1995.do 2010. g., sa posebnim naglaskom na južne multinacionalne korporacije.Očekivani rezultati jesu potvrđivanje i osporavanje nekih uvriježenih stavova oSDU, općenito, kao i SDU iz južnih zemlja, posebno. Rezultatima seosvjetljavaju specifični aspekti SDU i daje se smjernica za reformske aktivnostidonosilaca odluka kako bi se postigli povoljniji makroekonomski efekti SDU naprivredu BiH

PRILOG PROUČAVANJU RAZVOJNIH KARAKTERISTIKA KANTONA U FEDERACIJI BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE

Cilj ovog rada je analizom strukture djelatnosti kantona u Federaciji Bosne iHercegovine (FBiH) utvrditi postojeće stanje i analizirati razvojne karakteristike usvakom od kantona u odnosu na FBiH. S tim u vezi, u radu se ukazuje na kantonekoji bi u većoj mjeri mogli iskoristiti kantonalne konkurentske prednosti, što binosiocima ekonomske i razvojne politike u FBiH moglo pomoći prilikom definiranjapolitika za podsticanje ekonomskog rasta kantonalnih privreda. U radu su korištenialati analize regionalnog ekonomskog razvoja: lokacijski kvocijenti, koeficijentspecijalizacije i shift-share analiza, čime se obuhvatilo kretanje zaposlenosti u desetkantona FBiH za period 2006.-2011. godine. Većina kantona ima vrlo usku strukturudjelatnosti koja je vjerovatno neotporna na različite šokove. Uska strukturadjelatnosti posebno je uočena u kantonima u kojima prevladavaju primarne isekundarne djelatnosti. Značajan broj kantona dugoročno će pretrpjeti padkantonalnih konkurentskih prednosti. Rezultati analize upućuju na pasivan odnoskantona prema iskorištavanju kantonalnih konkurentskih prednosti

SHIFT-SHARE EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS OF CANTONS IN THE FEDERATION OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Structure of each economy, especially those in transition, is in constant change.Shift-share analysis is widely used for studying of regional economic change. Themodel in which the present analysis is conducted has three components: (i) the nationalgrowth component (in this paper the entity level of Federation of BH is usedas reference level), (ii) the industry mix component, and (iii) the competitive component.Each of them is measured on the basis of employment. The analysis enablesassessment of economic performance of a region (here cantons) in comparison to areference level (here the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina).In this paper authors aimed at capturing economic change at regional level. Authorshave compared the economic change in two time periods, 2006-2011 and 2012-2018.Changes in employment are expected in a small transitional and open economy suchas Bosnia and Herzegovina. Obtained results indicate that regional economy wentthrough considerable transformation. Some policy recommendations for policy decision-makers in the fields of education and labor market are also given in the paper

PROMJENA NIVOA STRANIH DIREKTNIH ULAGANJA I STRUKTURE KAPITALA ULAGAČA

Za Bosnu i Hercegovinu (BiH) kao i sve zemlje u razvoju i tranziciji ostvarivanjesvih vlastitih razvojnih potencijala veoma je važno. S tim u vezi, strana direktnaulaganja (SDU) su među značajnim faktorima za održivi ekonomski rast, a obezbjeđenjeadekvatnog okruženja za privlačenje SDU postaje jedan od bitnih ciljeva ekonomskepolitike. Ukupnoj investicionoj klimi, između ostalog, doprinose straniulagači koji posluju u BiH. Istraživanja pokazuju da su finansijski izvještajipreduzeća stranih ulagača prisutnih u zemlji jedan od kriterija na osnovukojeg potencijalni strani ulagači odlučuju o svom ulaganju. Cilj ovog radaje istražiti odnos između promjena u vezivanju kapitala i agregatnih prilivaSDU. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju na postojanje pozitivne korelacije izmeđurasta SDU u jednoj godini (2010) i stanja zaliha u prethodnoj (2009).Također, uočeno je da se u vrijeme recesije veza između varijabli koje supredmet istraživanja gubi

Analysis of Public Debt at Subnational Government Levels: Evidence from Cantons in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Total public debt of ten cantons in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), one of the two entities in BiH, have substantially increased in recent years. Since it is relatively small in nominal terms, this galloping trend have not attracted enough attention of decision makers. If these developments continue in the future, the public debt at cantonal level in FBiH might create serious fiscal problems and become one of central issues for policy makers. This has motivated our investigation of determinants that caused the increase in public debt over the period 2012-2018

Letter to Editor: RESITA NETWORK - ACADEMIC ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INNOVATION NETWORK OF SOUTH EASTERN EUROPEAN UNIVERSITIES: AN EXAMPLE OF SUCCESSFUL NETWORKING IN ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INNOVATION AT ACADEMIC LEVEL

The foundation, development, activities, and wider social impact of the AcademicEntrepreneurship and Innovation Network of South Eastern European Universities, or shortlyRESITA Network, is presented in this paper as a positive example of successful networking inentrepreneurship and innovation at academic level