The Role of Risk Attitude in Preference Rankings of Vaccine Use for Foot and Mouth Disease Eradication in the U.S.

Food Security and Poverty,

Virtual Investment Concepts and the Ethanol Industry

The fast-growing US ethanol industry has historically been characterized by large downstream investments made by farmers. The authors assess the value which the stock market may hold for downstream investment by farmers as well as by ethanol manufacturers themselves. The model framework used herein expands on the original VEST framework developed by Siebert, Jones and Sporleder. A word of caution, the model herein is not intended to provide an on-going, risk-reducing business strategy. However, it can and does provide a quick method to calculate the reasonableness of a downstream investment request that a farmer (or any business person) might be challenged to consider. Although virtual stock market investments may certainly assist in value added performance, they (just like brick and mortar processing plants) can provide no guarantee of performance.cooperatives, corn, equities, ethanol, value added, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q10, Q32,

Overview of the Agricultural Improvement Act of 2018

The Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service periodically issues revisions to its publications. The most current edition is made available. For access to an earlier edition, if available for this title, please contact the Oklahoma State University Library Archives by email at [email protected] or by phone at 405-744-6311

Industrial Hemp Production and Market Risk Analysis in Oklahoma

Industrial hemp production has garnered producer attention as a potential summer crop alternative in Oklahoma. Farmers considering the inclusion of hemp, an emerging new crop, in their operations need to factor in risk and uncertainty. We conducted a risk analysis to determine the optimal allocation of land to conventional crops and hemp for a representative 1,000-acre wheat farm in northeastern Oklahoma under production and market risk. Target MOTAD (minimization of total absolute deviation) model was used to focus on downside risk and hemp market price uncertainty. Six double-cropping systems for double- cropped winter wheat were considered, including sorghum, sesame, hemp for grain, hemp for fiber, hemp for dual grain and fiber, and hemp for floral materials. Less than 4% of the 1,000-acre available land allocated to hemp for floral material and as much as 800 acres of hemp for grain and hemp for dual grain and fiber, were profit- maximizing allocations depending on the producer’s tolerance for downside risk, target profit levels, control of cross-pollination, and market conditions

Rift Valley Fever: An Economic Assessment of Agricultural and Human Vulnerability

This research focused on the assessment of the U.S. agricultural sector and human vulnerability to a Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreak and the implications of a select set of alternative disease control strategies. Livestock impact assessment is done by using an integrated epidemic/economic model to examine the extent of RVF spread in the Southeast Texas livestock population and its consequences plus the outcome of implementing two different control strategies: emergency vaccination and larvicide vector control separately plus when they are used simultaneously. Human impact assessment utilized an inferential procedure, which comprises of a cost of illness calculation to assess the dollar cost of human illnesses and deaths, as well as a Disability Adjusted Life Year calculation to give an estimate of the burden of disease on public health as a whole. Results indicate substantial potential losses to the U.S., where combined livestock and human national costs ranged from $121 million to$2.3 billion.Rift Valley Fever, Outbreak, Welfare, Vaccination, Larvicide., Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy,

Livestock Forage Program disaster assistance

The Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service periodically issues revisions to its publications. The most current edition is made available. For access to an earlier edition, if available for this title, please contact the Oklahoma State University Library Archives by email at [email protected] or by phone at 405-744-6311

Cooperative management series: Evaluating investment opportunities

The Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service periodically issues revisions to its publications. The most current edition is made available. For access to an earlier edition, if available for this title, please contact the Oklahoma State University Library Archives by email at [email protected] or by phone at 405-744-6311

Rapid Effective Trace-Back Capability Value in Reducing the Cost of a Foot and Mouth Disease Event

This study evaluates how the availability of animal tracing affects the cost of a hypothetical Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in the Texas High Plains using alternative tracing scenarios. To accomplish this objective, the AusSpread epidemic disease spread model (Ward et al., 2006) is used to simulate a High Plains FMD outbreak under different animal tracing possibilities. A simple economic costing module (Elbakidze, 2008) is used to determine the savings in terms of animal disease mitigation costs from rapid, effective trace-back. The savings from increased traceability are then be compared to the cost of a functional National Animal Identification System (NAIS). Initial results indicate that rapid, effective tracing reduces the overall cost of disease outbreaks and that the benefits per animal in terms of reduced cost of an outbreak more than outweigh the annualized cost per animal of implementing a NAIS. A value of time related to controlling an outbreak is estimated to have increased benefits from an identification system that incorporates a rapid response capability. We also find the level of benefits vary depending on the location of initial infection and whether or not welfare slaughter occurs.Traceability, Foot and Mouth Disease, Economics, Agricultural and Food Policy, Livestock Production/Industries,

Essays on Modeling the Economic Impacts of a Foreign Animal Disease on the United States Agricultural Sector

Foreign animal disease can cause serious damage to the United States (US) agricultural sector and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), in particular, poses a serious threat. FMD causes death and reduced fecundity in infected animals, as well as significant economic consequences. FMD damages can likely be reduced through implementing pre-planned response strategies. Empirical studies have evaluated the economic consequences of alternative strategies, but typically employ simplified models. This dissertation seeks to improve US preparedness for avoiding and/or responding to an animal disease outbreak by addressing three issues related to strategy assessment in the context of FMD: integrated multi region economic and epidemic evaluation, inclusion of risk, and information uncertainty. An integrated economic/epidemic evaluation is done to examine the impact of various control strategies. This is done by combining a stochastic, spatial FMD simulation model with a national level, regionally disaggregated agricultural sector mathematical programming economic model. In the analysis, strategies are examined in the context of California's dairy industry. Alternative vaccination, disease detection and movement restriction strategies are considered as are trade restrictions. The results reported include epidemic impacts, national economic impacts, prices, regional producer impacts, and disease control costs under the alternative strategies. Results suggest that, including trade restrictions, the median national loss from the disease outbreak is as much as $17 billion when feed can enter the movement restriction zone. Early detection reduces the median loss and the standard deviation of losses. Vaccination does not reduce the median disease loss, but does have a smaller standard deviation of loss which would indicate it is a risk reducing strategy. Risk in foreign animal disease outbreaks is present from several sources; however, studies comparing alternative control strategies assume risk neutrality. In reality, there will be a desire to minimize the national loss as well as minimize the chance of an extreme outcome from the disease (i.e. risk aversion). We perform analysis on FMD control strategies using breakeven risk aversion coefficients in the context of an outbreak in the Texas High Plains. Results suggest that vaccination while not reducing average losses is a risk reducing strategy. Another issue related to risk and uncertainty is the response of consumers and domestic markets to the presence of FMD. Using a highly publicized possible FMD outbreak in Kansas that did not turn out to be true, we examine the role of information uncertainty in futures market response. Results suggest that livestock futures markets respond to adverse information even when that information is untrue. Furthermore, the existence of herding behavior and potential for momentum trading exaggerate the impact of information uncertainty related to animal disease