A Stochastic Measure of International Competitiveness

Government agencies around the world produce indexes that purport to measure international competitiveness. The most common version is the real effective exchange rate, which is some form of weighted average of the real exchange rates of the country’s trading partners. Such indexes convey a false sense of accuracy as they ignore the volatility among the component real exchange rates of the partners. As long as all real rates do not move in an equiproportionate fashion, in a fundamental sense real effective exchange rates are subject to estimation uncertainty. We demonstrate show how this uncertainty can be measured and used to enhance current practice.

Stochastic Index Numbers: A Review

The stochastic approach is a new way of viewing index numbers in which uncertainty and statistical ideas play a central role. Rather than just providing a single number for the rate of inflation, the stochastic approach provides the whole probability distribution of inflation. This paper reviews the key elements of the approach and then discusses some previously overlooked links with Fisher’s early work contained in his book The Making of Index Numbers. We then consider some more recent developments, including Diewert’s well-known critique of the stochastic approach, and provide responses to his criticisms. We also provide a review of Theil’s work on the stochastic approach, and present and extend Diewert’s work on this topic within the context of the Country Product Dummy method which measures price levels internationally.

Idiosyncrasies in Australian petrol price behaviour: Evidence of seasonalities

It has been argued that there are certain idiosyncrasies in Australian petrol price behaviour. To the extent that these idiosyncrasies result in large magnitude differences in petrol prices, they may be exploited by consumers to significantly reduce their household expenditure on the product. Similarly, such seasonalities may influence retailers in their purchase and storage decision. The objective of this paper is to test for seasonalities in the Australian retail petrol market. The approach adopted is similar to that for determining calendar anomalies as documented in the financial and commodity markets literature. We find that a monthly seasonal effect is pronounced with petrol prices lower in the months of February–May and highest in July and August. A day-of-the-week effect is also apparent and is manifest in all petrol prices for capital cities (Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney) across various years. However, the half-month effect, as is common in stock returns, is not observed. Moreover, contrary to popular belief that petrol prices are higher surrounding holidays, no evidence of the holiday effect is found. In Brisbane and Melbourne, petrol prices also have some relationship to the mood of consumers, as proxied using weather conditions. This is not observed in Adelaide and Sydney

Choice of acquisition form in Australia and the post-takeover employment of target firm directors on the acquiring firm board

In Australia, a corporate acquisition can be structured as either a scheme of arrangement or a takeover. We investigate the association between deal structure and the retention of target directors on the merged entity board. We find that the odds of a target director subsequently sitting on the merged entity's board are significantly higher in schemes. The results also show that premiums are lower in schemes of arrangement when additional target directors are appointed to the board of the acquiring firm. The findings indicate that target director appointment is unrelated to the merged entity's post-acquisition performance