Impacts of changes in consumption, production and trade policies in China and India on trade and greenhouse gases emissions, particularly in New Zealand

Population growth, urbanisation and rising incomes are changing the level and composition of food consumption in emerging countries. In India and China particularly, this development is accompanied by shifts in dietary patterns away from staples towards more livestock products. However, livestock production has been identified as a large contributor to climate change. Changes in China and India’s consumption and production patterns are likely to affect other countries by altering their agricultural production, food consumption and trade of agricultural commodities, as well as greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from their livestock sector. An additional important consideration for producers and exporters concerns the reduction of international trade barriers that may lead to changing patterns of global agricultural production and trade. This may also affect the total amount of GHG emissions from changing levels of livestock production. New Zealand is a small open economy heavily dependent on agricultural exports. Therefore, changes in consumer diets and regulatory trade policies in China and India may have implications for domestic consumption, production and trade as well as agricultural GHG emissions in New Zealand. The main objectives of this thesis are to assess the potential impacts of changes in meat and dairy consumption and production, as well as different trade policies in China and India, on New Zealand trade and GHG emissions from agricultural commodities. The analytical approach employs the Lincoln Trade and Environment Model (LTEM), a partial equilibrium model that forecasts international trade, production and consumption of agricultural commodities, and GHG emissions from livestock production. A number of scenarios were developed simulating different ranges of consumption and production of meat and dairy commodities in China and India as well as full trade liberalisation in both countries. For New Zealand, some of the most significant results suggested that producer returns from beef and skim milk powder were predicted to increase significantly if India and China were to partially adopt US dietary patterns. However, the associated effect of these changes was a moderate increase in GHG emissions from the beef and dairy sector. In contrast, if China and India would significantly increase meat and dairy consumption and production by relatively large growth rates that are evenly distributed across all commodities, New Zealand producer returns particularly from the dairy sector were predicted to fall as a consequence of both declines in dairy prices and production. In turn, this would lead to a decrease in GHG emissions from dairy in New Zealand following decreased production. Full trade liberalisation in China and India was predicted to increase producer returns in New Zealand across all meat and dairy commodities but would also slightly increase GHG emissions from livestock. Results from this thesis are important for policy makers when negotiating further trade policies with India and China, as well as national and international climate policies

Impacts of Changes in Consumption, Production and Trade Policies in China and India on the European Union and New Zealand

This study assessed the potential impacts of changes in meat and dairy consumption and production, as well as different trade policies in China and India, on agricultural trade in New Zealand (NZ) and the European Union (EU-27), using the Lincoln Trade and Environment Model (LTEM). This partial equilibrium model forecasts international trade, production and consumption of agricultural commodities. Several scenarios were developed simulating different ranges of consumption and production of meat and dairy commodities, as well as full trade liberalisation in China and India. Results showed that changing consumption, production and trade patterns in India and China could lead to higher producer returns from meat and dairy commodities in NZ and the EU-27 by 2020. However, if China and India significantly increase meat and dairy consumption and production simultaneously, producer returns in NZ and the EU-27 could decline

Emissions targets of New Zealand's agricultural export competitors – a literature review

This literature review forms the initial assessment of a trade modelling exercise to examine changes in New Zealand and global livestock emissions, given the implementation of carbon pricing in New Zealand. The modelling will also examine the effects of international action on agricultural emissions reductions from New Zealand’s main export competitors

Consumer attitudes towards sustainability attributes on food labels

With current concerns about climate change and the general status of the environment, there is an increasing expectation that products have sustainability credentials, and that these can be verified. Labelling is a common method of communicating certain product attributes to consumers that may influence their choices. There are different types of labels with several functions. The aim of this study is to investigate consumers‟ purchase decisions towards certain sustainability claims on food products, particularly by displaying the reduction of carbon emissions. Choice outcomes will be evaluated using Discrete Choice Modelling (DCM). Data for the study is obtained by a web-based consumer survey undertaken in the United Kingdom (UK). Results provide information on different attributes effects on consumers‟ purchase decisions, particularly their willingness to pay. This study provides information on consumers‟ attitudes that will assist industries and firms to benefit from market opportunities, in particular assessing the methods by which carbon footprinting measures can be incorporated alongside information on other sustainability criteria in product marketing.food labeling, carbon footprint, discrete choice modeling, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy,

The contribution of Antarctic-related activities to the New Zealand Economy

In 2007, the AERU at Lincoln University was commissioned by the Canterbury Development Corporation (funded by Antarctica New Zealand) to prepare a report on The Contribution of Antarctic-Related Activities to the Canterbury and New Zealand Economies (Saunders et al, 2007). That report concentrated on the local and national impacts of Antarctic-related activities based in Canterbury. Thus, it included Antarctic-related research at the Gateway Antarctica programme of the University of Canterbury, for example, but not research at the Antarctic Research Centre of Victoria University of Wellington. The 2007 study found that the direct impact on the Canterbury economy was at least $87.6 million per annum, which was estimated to be associated with 676 full-time equivalent jobs in the region. The direct impact on the New Zealand economy was estimated to be$133.2 million, supporting 965 full-time equivalent jobs. Taking into account multiplier impacts, the direct, indirect and induced impacts amounted to $155.1 million in Canterbury and$282.0 million in New Zealand. In 2013, Antarctica New Zealand commissioned the AERU to update and extend its 2007 study. In particular, the AERU was asked to consider significant Antarctic-related activities outside as well as inside the Canterbury region. The role of Christchurch as a ‘gateway city’ to the Antarctic means that his report retains a focus on the Canterbury region, but the authors have attempted a wider national scope in its analysis

Emerging versus developed economy consumer willingness to pay for environmentally sustainable food production: A choice experiment approach comparing Indian, Chinese and United Kingdom lamb consumers

In China and India, income growth is driving a structural change in dietary patterns away from staples towards more livestock foodstuffs such as meat products, exacerbating already significant environmental pressures from food production. This study uses the choice experiment (CE) method in surveys of Chinese, Indian and United Kingdom lamb consumers to explore potential for environmental labelling of lamb meat in emerging economies to form part of agri-environmental response to these pressures. Choice experiments are a stated-preference nonmarket approach to valuing consumer willingness to pay. Lamb consumers are presented with differing hypothetical products described by attributes describing environmental certification standards, with observed choices and product attributes analysed in a probabilistic Random Utility Model econometric framework. While preference disparities are found between emerging and developed economy consumers, results demonstrate that emerging economy consumers' choice of lamb products can be influenced by production processes that incorporate environmental sustainability. Indian consumers are found to be willing to pay relatively more for environmentally certified production practices than Chinese or UK counterparts. Of the environmental practices considered in this study, Greenhouse Gas minimisation is valued the most, in all three countries

Consumer Attitudes towards Sustainability Attributes on Food Labels

Concerns about climate change and the general status of the environment have increased expectation that food products have sustainability credentials, and that these can be verified. There are significant and increasing pressures in key export markets for information on Greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of products throughout its life-cycle. How this information is conveyed to consumers is a key issue. Labelling is a common method of communicating certain product attributes to consumers that may influence their choices. In a choice experiment concerning fruit purchase decisions, this study estimates willingness to pay for sustainability attributes by consumers in Japan and the UK. The role of label presentation format is investigated: text only, text and graphical, and graphical only. Results indicate that sustainability attributes influence consumers’ fruit purchase decisions. Reduction of carbon in fruit production is shown to be the least valued out of sustainability attributes considered. Differences are evident between presentation formats and between countries, with increased nutrient content being the most sensitive to format and country while carbon reduction is the most insensitive and almost always valued the least.Willingness to pay, Choice experiment, Food labelling, Sustainability, Cross-country comparison, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Q18, Q51, Q56,

Consumer Preferences for Attributes in Food and Beverages in Developed and Emerging Export Markets and their Impact on the European Union and New Zealand

This study examined consumer attitudes towards attributes in food and beverages in China, India, Indonesia, Japan and the UK. The attributes included basic attributes such as price and quality, but also extended to food safety and health benefits, as well as environmental and social attributes. The importance of factors affecting key attributes were examined in more detail. The study used a web-based survey with 1,000 middle and upper income consumers in each country. In addition, the potential economic impact of agricultural returns of different levels of premiums for food attributes in the EU and New Zealand were examined using the partial equilibrium Lincoln Trade and Environment Model (LTEM). This study found that consumers from developing countries valued food attributes more than the developed countries. Trade model projections showed an important impact on the agricultural sectors in the EU and New Zealand from the different levels of premiums for food attributes in selected overseas markets

California apple consumer consumption behaviours and product preferences: A Latent Class Analysis of New Zealand apples

This study is part of a research programme entitled Unlocking Export Prosperity from the Agri-food Values of Aotearoa New Zealand. It is funded by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) Endeavour Fund for science research programmes. The research aims to provide new knowledge on how local enterprises can achieve higher returns by ensuring global consumers understand the distinctive qualities of the physical, credence and cultural attributes of agri-food products that are “Made in New Zealand”. Agricultural exports are an important contributor to the New Zealand (NZ) economy. It is critically important for NZ exporters to understand export markets and the different cultures and preferences of those consumers to safeguard market access, and for realising potential premiums. This report describes the application of a survey of Californian apple consumers that is designed to examine consumption behaviour and consumer Willingness-to-Pay (WTP) for credence attributes. While search attributes such as price or colour can be observed directly, and experience attributes such as flavour can be assessed when consumed, credence attributessuch as environmental sustainability cannot be immediately seen or experienced at the point of sale. For products promoting credence attributes, the role of verification, including labelling, is of significant importance. Our approach is to apply a Discrete Choice Experiment economic valuation method, analysed using a statistical approach called Latent Class Modelling that describes profiles for different consumer segments identified in the data and provides estimates of attribute WTP across these segments

Shanghai and Beijing milk consumer consumption behaviour and product preferences: A Latent Class Analysis of New Zealand UHT milk

This study is part of a research programme entitled Unlocking Export Prosperity from the Agri-food Values of Aotearoa New Zealand. It is funded by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) Endeavour Fund for science research programmes. Information on this research programme including reports of other surveys are available from the AERU website https://www.aeru.co.nz/projects/uep. The research aims to provide new knowledge on how local enterprises can achieve higher returns by ensuring global consumers understand the distinctive qualities of the physical, credence and cultural attributes of agri-food products that are “Made in New Zealand”. Agricultural exports are an important contributor to the New Zealand (NZ) economy. While NZ historically relied on key markets such as the United Kingdom for export trade, NZ has more recently significantly expanded its export markets and China has become established as an important dairy product destination. It is critically important for NZ exporters to understand export markets and the different cultures and preferences of those consumers to safeguard market access, and for realising potential premiums. This report describes the application of a survey of Beijing and Shanghai UHT milk consumers that is designed to examine consumption behaviour and consumer Willingness-to-Pay (WTP) for credence attributes. While search attributes such as price or colour can be observed directly, and experience attributes such as flavour can be assessed when consumed, credence attributes such as environmental sustainability cannot be immediately seen or experienced at the point of sale. For products promoting credence attributes, the role of verification including labelling design is of significant importance. Our approach is to apply a Discrete Choice Experiment economic valuation method, analysed using a statistical approach called Latent Class Modelling that describes profiles for different consumer segments identified in the data and provides estimates of attribute WTP across these segments