25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review

We review the past 25 years of time series research that has been published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985; International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During this period, over one third of all papers published in these journals concerned time series forecasting. We also review highly influential works on time series forecasting that have been published elsewhere during this period. Enormous progress has been made in many areas, but we find that there are a large number of topics in need of further development. We conclude with comments on possible future research directions in this field.Accuracy measures; ARCH model; ARIMA model; Combining; Count data; Densities; Exponential smoothing; Kalman Filter; Long memory; Multivariate; Neural nets; Nonlinearity; Prediction intervals; Regime switching models; Robustness; Seasonality; State space; Structural models; Transfer function; Univariate; VAR.

Introduction to nonlinearities, business cycles, and forecasting

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Introduction to nonlinearities, business cycles, and forecasting.

Forecasting; Business cycles;

An efficient strategy to describe the propagation of variation through multi-stage metal forming processes

In this work an efficient strategy to describe the propagation of uncertainty throughout a production process is proposed and validated. A two-stage metal forming process is used to demonstrate the proposed strategy. A metamodel of the first stage is built using a singular value decomposition combined with multiquadric radial basis functions. The strategy is validated by comparing the propagated results from the first stage, of both the metamodel and a finite element model, to a second stage finite element model for a new set of validation points. Using the proposed strategy, it will be possible to efficiently optimize multi-stage processes under uncertainty.</p

Long-Term Outcome of Sustained Endocrine Monotherapy for Elderly Breast Cancer Patients

Background: Among elderly breast cancer patients, endocrine therapy may be chosen as definitive treatment by patients or physicians. This study investigated the efficacy of endocrine monotherapy (ET) in terms of avoidance of invasive local treatment. Methods: Elderly patients (≥70 years) with a diagnosis of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer who underwent ET between 2008 and 2015 were identified through the Netherlands Cancer Registry. The primary outcome was the cumulative risk of undergoing invasive local treatment (radiotherapy or surgery) for the primary tumor. The secondary outcomes were development of uncontrolled local disease and overall survival (OS). Results: Of the 105 patients (median age, 86 years) enrolled in this study, 91 (78 %) received ET as definitive treatment, whereas 14 received ET as a “bridge to surgery.” For the 91 patients who used ET as intended definitive treatment, the 5-year cumulative risk of undergoing invasive local treatment and experiencing uncontrolled disease were respectively 28 % and 16 %. The 5-year cumulative OS was 42 %. Whereas 11 patients had metastatic or locally progressive breast cancer at the time of death, cardiovascular disease, infectious diseases, and old age or dementia were reported as contributing to the death of 39 patients. Conclusions: For a select group of elderly breast cancer patients who received sustained ET, the risk of undergoing invasive local treatment was surpassed by a twofold higher risk of dying. As an alternative to invasive local treatment, ET can be discussed as a safe and effective option for patients unwilling or unfit to undergo surgery.</p

Nivolumab and ipilimumab in the real-world setting in patients with mesothelioma

Objectives: Nivolumab (anti-PD-1) plus ipilimumab (anti-CTLA-4) is a new first-line treatment combination for patients with pleural mesothelioma. Nivolumab-ipilimumab improved the survival, however, 30.3% of the patients suffered from grade 3–4 treatment related adverse events (TRAE's) and TRAE's led to discontinuation in 23.0% of all patients. Here, we present the first real-world data of nivolumab plus ipilimumab in patients with malignant mesothelioma treated in two mesothelioma expert centers. Methods: Clinical data of patients with mesothelioma treated with nivolumab and ipilimumab were prospectively collected. Clinical parameters were obtained every visit, CT scans were evaluated every 12 weeks and adverse events were assessed continuously during the treatment. Data on grade 2–5 TRAE's and activity (overall response rate (ORR), duration of response (DOR), disease control rate (DCR), median progression-free survival (mPFS) and median overall survival (mOS) were reported. Results: Between January 2021 and August 2022, 184 patients were treated with nivolumab plus ipilimumab. The median follow-up was 12.1 months (95 %CI 11.1 – 13.1). Grade 3–4 TRAEs were seen in 27.7 % of the patients and 25.0 % discontinued immunotherapy treatment early because of TRAE's. ORR was 21.7 % (95 % CI 15.7–27.7), median DOR was 5.7 months (IQR 3.2–8.7) and DCR at 12 weeks 56.0 % (95 % CI 48.8–63.2). The mPFS was 5.5 months (95 %CI 4.1–6.9), mOS was 14.1 months (95 % CI 11.1–18.2). Conclusions: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab had an equal efficacy in a real-world comparable population but also a high risk of TRAE's, leading to discontinuation of treatment in 25% of the patients.</p