THE ECONOMICS OF GRAIN PRODUCER CARTELS

The objective of this study is to measure economic payoffs from a grain cartel. Two basic approaches to extract economic rents are considered: (i) Mandatory supply controls to restrict production and raise grain price, and (2) export price discrimination using export taxes or subsidies. The economic impacts of different producer cartel scenarios were estimated using a long-term, nine-region world trade simulation model incorporating the assumptions of neoclassical trade theory. The SWOPSIM program was used to write the model equations. Economic Research Service trade data for 1989 were used to initialize the model. Results reflect long-run changes from 1989conditions and are at 1989 general price levels. The model simultaneously estimated outcomes in markets for nine commodities: beef, pork, poultry meat, wheat, corn, coarse grains (other than corn), oilseeds (soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seed), oilmeal, and sugar. Cross-effects among commodities and input-output relationships between field crop and livestock production are accounted for by substitution and complementary coefficients in behavioral equations. Countries and groups of countries included in the model are Australia, Canada, the European Community (EC), European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the United States (US), Japan, and the rest of the world (ROW). The simulation results report the consequences of restricting only US grain production (wheat, corn, and other coarse grains) from 5 to 20% below the 1989 production level. Grain supply restrictions were presumed to be mandatory, hence taxpayers incurred no additional outlays over those in 1989 . World price increases were modest for wheat, but greater for corn and other coarse grains in part because of differences in market share among grains. US consumers of grain and grain products buy less at higher prices and are worse off, as is the country as a whole. Consumer surplus falls nearly $2 billion when grain supply is reduced 20$7 billion in rents they collect from current programs. It seems unlikely that a producer group would risk gains of this size for the prospect of cartel rents a sixth the size or less from international markets. Gains to US producers are less for a wheat cartel than for either the feed grain cartel or for the wheat-feed grain cartel included herein. The unfavorable outcomes originate from the export demand for US wheat made highly elastic by opportunities to substitute feed grain for wheat in production and consumption especially in the long run. That is, a high wheat price and controlled production of wheat encourages importers to produce wheat, cut back feed grain production, and import low-cost feed grains.Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,

Common Agricultural Policy Rebalancing: The Basis for Possible Agreement

Agricultural and Food Policy,

Time-resolved Raman spectroscopy for in situ planetary mineralogy

Planetary mineralogy can be revealed through a variety of remote sensing and in situ investigations that precede any plans for eventual sample return. We briefly review those techniques and focus on the capabilities for on-surface in situ examination of Mars, Venus, the Moon, asteroids, and other bodies. Over the past decade, Raman spectroscopy has continued to develop as a prime candidate for the next generation of in situ planetary instruments, as it provides definitive structural and compositional information of minerals in their natural geological context. Traditional continuous-wave Raman spectroscopy using a green laser suffers from fluorescence interference, which can be large (sometimes saturating the detector), particularly in altered minerals, which are of the greatest geophysical interest. Taking advantage of the fact that fluorescence occurs at a later time than the instantaneous Raman signal, we have developed a time-resolved Raman spectrometer that uses a streak camera and pulsed miniature microchip laser to provide picosecond time resolution. Our ability to observe the complete time evolution of Raman and fluorescence spectra in minerals makes this technique ideal for exploration of diverse planetary environments, some of which are expected to contain strong, if not overwhelming, fluorescence signatures. We discuss performance capability and present time-resolved pulsed Raman spectra collected from several highly fluorescent and Mars-relevant minerals. In particular, we have found that conventional Raman spectra from fine grained clays, sulfates, and phosphates exhibited large fluorescent signatures, but high quality spectra could be obtained using our time-resolved approach

European Economic Integration and the Consequences for U.S. Agriculture

The pace of political-economic change in former East Bloc nations of Europe defies accurate prediction. Some events such as more price-directed markets are predictable enough but integration of former East Bloc countries into the European Community remains a matter of speculation. Analysis indicates that the economics of agriculture favors acceptance by the European Community of members of the European Free Trade Association before former members of the. East Bloc. Analysis also indicates the considerable agricultural production potential of Central and East Europe will be unleased first by market-directed economies and later by integration with the EC -- if the latter occurs. US consumers gain more than producers lose so the economic welfare of Americans is raised modestly.International Relations/Trade,

Benefits to U.S. Agriculture from Terminating European Oilseed Subsidies

Exact date of working paper unknown

Implementing a New Trade Paradigm: Opportunities for Agricultural Trade Regionalism in the Pacific Rim

The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic implications for American food producers, consumers, and society of alternative Pacific Rim free trade region (FIR) configurations.International Relations/Trade,

U.S. Investment Opportunities in East German Agriculture After Unification

Exact date of working paper unknown

On the Sensitivity of Atmospheric Model Implied Ocean Heat Transport to the Dominant Terms of the Surface Energy Balance

The oceanic meridional heat transport (T{sub o}) implied by an atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) can help evaluate a model's readiness for coupling with an ocean GCM. In this study we examine the T{sub o} from benchmark experiments of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, and evaluate the sensitivity of T{sub o} to the dominant terms of the surface energy balance. The implied global ocean TO in the Southern Hemisphere of many models is equatorward, contrary to most observationally-based estimates. By constructing a hybrid (model corrected by observations) T{sub o}, an earlier study demonstrated that the implied heat transport is critically sensitive to the simulated shortwave cloud radiative effects, which have been argued to be principally responsible for the Southern Hemisphere problem. Systematic evaluation of one model in a later study suggested that the implied T{sub o} could be equally as sensitive to a model's ocean surface latent heat flux. In this study we revisit the problem with more recent simulations, making use of estimates of ocean surface fluxes to construct two additional hybrid calculations. The results of the present study demonstrate that indeed the implied T{sub o} of an atmospheric model is very sensitive to problems in not only the surface net shortwave, but the latent heat flux as well. Many models underestimate the shortwave radiation reaching the surface in the low latitudes, and overestimate the latent heat flux in the same region. The additional hybrid transport calculations introduced here could become useful model diagnostic tests as estimates of implied ocean surface fluxes are improved