The Ebola outbreak, 2013-2016: old lessons for new epidemics.

Ebola virus causes a severe haemorrhagic fever in humans with high case fatality and significant epidemic potential. The 2013-2016 outbreak in West Africa was unprecedented in scale, being larger than all previous outbreaks combined, with 28 646 reported cases and 11 323 reported deaths. It was also unique in its geographical distribution and multicountry spread. It is vital that the lessons learned from the world's largest Ebola outbreak are not lost. This article aims to provide a detailed description of the evolution of the outbreak. We contextualize this outbreak in relation to previous Ebola outbreaks and outline the theories regarding its origins and emergence. The outbreak is described by country, in chronological order, including epidemiological parameters and implementation of outbreak containment strategies. We then summarize the factors that led to rapid and extensive propagation, as well as highlight the key successes, failures and lessons learned from this outbreak and the response.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'

Listening to the rumours: What the northern Nigeria polio vaccine boycott can tell us ten years on

In 2003 five northern Nigerian states boycotted the oral polio vaccine due to fears that it was unsafe. Though the international responses have been scrutinised in the literature, this paper argues that lessons still need to be learnt from the boycott: that the origins and continuation of the boycott were due to specific local factors. We focus mainly on Kano state, which initiated the boycotts and continued to reject immunisations for the longest period, to provide a focused analysis of the internal dynamics and complex multifaceted causes of the boycott. We argue that the delay in resolving the year-long boycott was largely due to the spread of rumours at local levels, which were intensified by the outspoken involvement of high-profile individuals whose views were misunderstood or underestimated. We use sociological concepts to analyse why these men gained influence amongst northern Nigerian communities. This study has implications on contemporary policy: refusals still challenge the Global Polio Eradication Initiative; and polio remains endemic to Nigeria (Nigeria accounted for over half of global cases in 2012). This paper sheds light on how this problem may be tackled with the ultimate aim of vaccinating more children and eradicating polio

Malaria epidemiology in central Myanmar: identification of a multi-species asymptomatic reservoir of infection.

BACKGROUND: The spread of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum is a global health concern. Myanmar stands at the frontier of artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum. Myanmar also has the highest reported malaria burden in Southeast Asia; it is integral in the World Health Organization's plan to eliminate malaria in Southeast Asia, yet few epidemiological data exist for the general population in Myanmar. METHODS: This cross-sectional, probability household survey was conducted in Phyu township, Bago Region (central Myanmar), during the wet season of 2013. Interviewers collected clinical and behavioural data, recorded tympanic temperature and obtained dried blood spots for malaria PCR and serology. Plasmodium falciparum positive samples were tested for genetic mutations in the K13 region that may confer artemisinin resistance. Estimated type-specific malaria PCR prevalence and seroprevalence were calculated, with regression analysis to identify risk factors for seropositivity to P. falciparum. Data were weighted to account for unequal selection probabilities. RESULTS: 1638 participants were sampled (500 households). Weighted PCR prevalence was low (n = 41, 2.5%) and most cases were afebrile (93%). Plasmodium falciparum was the most common species (n = 19. 1.1%) and five (26%) P. falciparum samples harboured K13 mutations. Plasmodium knowlesi was detected in 1.0% (n = 16) and Plasmodium vivax was detected in 0.4% (n = 7). Seroprevalence was 9.4% for P. falciparum and 3.1% for P. vivax. Seroconversion to P. falciparum was 0.003/year in the whole population, but 16-fold higher in men over 23 years old (LR test p = 0.016). DISCUSSION: This is the first population-based seroprevalence study from central Myanmar. Low overall prevalence was discovered. However, these data suggest endemic transmission continues, probably associated with behavioural risk factors amongst working-age men. Genetic mutations associated with P. falciparum artemisinin resistance, the presence of P. knowlesi and discrete demographic risk groups present opportunities and challenges for malaria control. Responses targeted to working-age men, capable of detecting sub-clinical infections, and considering all species will facilitate malaria elimination in this setting

Systematic literature review of methodologies and data sources of existing economic models across the full spectrum of Alzheimer’s disease and dementia from apparently healthy through disease progression to end of life care: a systematic review protocol

Introduction Dementia is one of the greatest health challenges the world will face in the coming decades, as it is one of the principal causes of disability and dependency among older people. Economic modelling is used widely across many health conditions to inform decisions on health and social care policy and practice. The aim of this literature review is to systematically identify, review and critically evaluate existing health economics models in dementia. We included the full spectrum of dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease (AD), from preclinical stages through to severe dementia and end of life. This review forms part of the Real world Outcomes across the Alzheimer’s Disease spectrum for better care: multimodal data Access Platform (ROADMAP) project. Methods and analysis Electronic searches were conducted in Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online, Excerpta Medica dataBASE, Economic Literature Database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, Research Papers in Economics, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness, Science Citation Index, Turning Research Into Practice and Open Grey for studies published between January 2000 and the end of June 2017. Two reviewers will independently assess each study against predefined eligibility criteria. A third reviewer will resolve any disagreement. Data will be extracted using a predefined data extraction form following best practice. Study quality will be assessed using the Phillips checklist for decision analytic modelling. A narrative synthesis will be used. Ethics and dissemination The results will be made available in a scientific peer-reviewed journal paper, will be presented at relevant conferences and will also be made available through the ROADMAP project

Resource utilisation and costs in predementia and dementia: a systematic review protocol

Introduction Dementia is the fastest growing major cause of disability globally with a mounting social and financial impact for patients and their families but also to health and social care systems. This review aims to systematically synthesise evidence on the utilisation of resources and costs incurred by patients and their caregivers and by health and social care services across the full spectrum of dementia, from its preceding preclinical stage to end of life. The main drivers of resources used and costs will also be identified. Methods and analysis A systematic literature review was conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CDSR, CENTRAL, DARE, EconLit, CEA Registry, TRIP, NHS EED, SCI, RePEc and OpenGrey between January 2000 and beginning of May 2017. Two reviewers will independently assess each study for inclusion and disagreements will be resolved by a third reviewer. Data will be extracted using a predefined data extraction form following best practice. Study quality will be assessed with the Effective Public Health Practice Project quality assessment tool. The reporting of costing methodology will be assessed using the British Medical Journal checklist. A narrative synthesis of all studies will be presented for resources used and costs incurred, by level of disease severity when available. If feasible, the data will be synthesised using appropriate statistical techniques. Ethics and dissemination Included articles will be reviewed for an ethics statement. The findings of the review will be disseminated in a related peer-reviewed journal and presented at conferences. They will also contribute to the work developed in the Real World Outcomes across the Alzheimer’s disease spectrum for better care: multi-modal data access platform (ROADMAP)

Assessment of a Hotel-Based Protective Housing Program for Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Management of Chronic Illness among Persons Experiencing Homelessness

Importance: Persons experiencing homelessness (PEH) are at higher risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe illness due to COVID-19 because of a limited ability to physically distance and a higher burden of underlying health conditions. Objective: To describe and assess a hotel-based protective housing intervention to reduce incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among PEH in Chicago, Illinois, with increased risk of severe illness due to COVID-19.Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study analyzed PEH who were provided protective housing in individual hotel rooms in downtown Chicago during the COVID-19 pandemic from April 2 through September 3, 2020. Participants were PEH at increased risk for severe COVID-19, defined as (1) aged at least 60 years regardless of health conditions, (2) aged at least 55 years with any underlying health condition posing increased risk, or (3) aged less than 55 years with any underlying health condition posing substantially increased risk (eg, HIV/AIDS). Exposures: Participants were housed in individual hotel rooms to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection; on-site health care workers provided daily symptom monitoring, regular SARS-CoV-2 testing, and care for chronic health conditions. Additional on-site services included treatment of mental health and substance use disorders and social services.Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome measured was SARS-CoV-2 incidence, with SARS-Cov2 infection defined as a positive upper respiratory specimen using any polymerase chain reaction diagnostic assay authorized for emergency use by the Food and Drug Administration. Secondary outcomes were blood pressure control, glycemic control as measured by hemoglobin A1c, and housing placements at departure.Results: Of 259 participants from 16 homeless shelters in Chicago, 104 (40.2%) were aged at least 65 years, 190 (73.4%) were male, 185 (71.4%) were non-Hispanic Black, and 49 (18.9%) were non-Hispanic White. There was an observed reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence during the study period among the protective housing cohort (54.7 per 1000 people [95% CI, 22.4-87.1 per 1000 people]) compared with citywide rates for PEH residing in shelters (137.1 per 1000 people [95% CI, 125.1-149.1 per 1000 people]; P =.001). There was also an adjusted change in systolic blood pressure at a rate of -5.7 mm Hg (95% CI, -9.3 to -2.1 mm Hg) and hemoglobin A1cat a rate of -1.4% (95% CI, -2.4% to -0.4%) compared with baseline. More than half of participants (51% [n = 132]) departed from the intervention to housing of some kind (eg, supportive housing).Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that protective housing was associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infection among high-risk PEH during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Chicago. These findings suggest that with appropriate wraparound supports (ie, multisector services to address complex needs), such housing interventions may reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, improve noncommunicable disease control, and provide a pathway to permanent housing.</p

Tracking changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a novel outpatient sentinel surveillance system in Chicago, USA

Public health indicators typically used for COVID-19 surveillance can be biased or lag changing community transmission patterns. In this study, we investigate whether sentinel surveillance of recently symptomatic individuals receiving outpatient diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 could accurately assess the instantaneous reproductive number R(t) and provide early warning of changes in transmission. We use data from community-based diagnostic testing sites in the United States city of Chicago. Patients tested at community-based diagnostic testing sites between September 2020 and June 2021, and reporting symptom onset within four days preceding their test, formed the sentinel population. R(t) calculated from sentinel cases agreed well with R(t) from other indicators. Retrospectively, trends in sentinel cases did not precede trends in COVID-19 hospital admissions by any identifiable lead time. In deployment, sentinel surveillance held an operational recency advantage of nine days over hospital admissions. The promising performance of opportunistic sentinel surveillance suggests that deliberately designed outpatient sentinel surveillance would provide robust early warning of increasing transmission

Listening to the rumours: what the northern Nigeria polio vaccine boycott can tell us ten years on.

In 2003 five northern Nigerian states boycotted the oral polio vaccine due to fears that it was unsafe. Though the international responses have been scrutinised in the literature, this paper argues that lessons still need to be learnt from the boycott: that the origins and continuation of the boycott were due to specific local factors. We focus mainly on Kano state, which initiated the boycotts and continued to reject immunisations for the longest period, to provide a focused analysis of the internal dynamics and complex multifaceted causes of the boycott. We argue that the delay in resolving the year-long boycott was largely due to the spread of rumours at local levels, which were intensified by the outspoken involvement of high-profile individuals whose views were misunderstood or underestimated. We use sociological concepts to analyse why these men gained influence amongst northern Nigerian communities. This study has implications on contemporary policy: refusals still challenge the Global Polio Eradication Initiative; and polio remains endemic to Nigeria (Nigeria accounted for over half of global cases in 2012). This paper sheds light on how this problem may be tackled with the ultimate aim of vaccinating more children and eradicating polio