Development of a simple prognostic nomogram for individualising 5-year and 10-year absolute risks of fracture: A population-based prospective study among postmenopausal women

Objectives: Previous fracture prediction models have been based on the assumption of a stable risk of subsequent fractures over time. The aim of the present work was to develop a nomogram for prediction of 5-year and 10-year individualised absolute fracture risks for postmenopausal women taking into account the time relation between fractures. Methods: A population-based prospective study was performed in 23 general practice centres located in the southern part of The Netherlands. At baseline (1992-1994), 4203 postmenopausal women between 50 and 80 years participated and 2372 of them also participated 10 years later. Baseline measurements included lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) and clinical risk factor evaluation. The incidence of fractures was ascertained. Bayesian model averaging and Cox's proportional hazards model were used. Results: After enrolment, 382 (16.1%) women had a clinical fracture. Fracture risk was associated with advancing age (HR 1.09 per SD (5 years); 95% CI 1.01 to 1.17), lumbar spine BMD (HR 1.23 per -1 SD; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.37) and a prior fracture, with HR 3.27 (95% CI 2.50 to 4.30) for a recent prior fracture (≤5 years previously) and HR 1.97 (95% CI 1.43 to 2.71) for a non-recent prior fracture after menopause (>5 years previously). Women with a recent prior fracture had 66% higher risk of an incident fracture than those with a nonrecent prior fracture (HR 1.66; 95% CI 1.15 to 2.40). Conclusions: The nomogram developed can help doctors to inform patients more effectively and thus better manage patient care by providing an individualized fracture risk taking into account the time relationship for fractures

Early changes in bone density, microarchitecture, bone resorption, and inflammation predict the clinical outcome 12 weeks after conservatively treated distal radius fractures : an exploratory study

Fracture healing is an active process with early changes in bone and inflammation. We performed an exploratory study evaluating the association between early changes in densitometric, structural, biomechanical, and biochemical bone parameters during the first weeks of fracture healing and wrist-specific pain and disability at 12 weeks in postmenopausal women with a conservatively treated distal radius fracture. Eighteen patients (aged 64¿±¿8 years) were evaluated at 1 to 2 and 3 to 4 weeks postfracture, using high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT), micro-finite element analysis, serum procollagen type-I N-terminal propeptide (P1NP), carboxy-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen (ICTP), and high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP). After 12 weeks, patients rated their pain and disability using Patient Rated Wrist Evaluation (PRWE) questionnaire. Additionally, Quick Disability of the Arm Shoulder and Hand (QuickDASH) questionnaire and active wrist range of motion was evaluated. Linear regression models were used to study the relationship between changes in bone parameters and in hsCRP from visit 1 to 2 and PRWE score after 12 weeks. A lower PRWE outcome, indicating better outcome, was significantly related to an early increase in trabecular bone mineral density (BMD) (ß -0.96 [95% CI -1.75 to -0.16], R2¿=¿0.37), in torsional stiffness (-0.14 [-0.28 to -0.004], R2¿=¿0.31), and to an early decrease in trabecular separation (209 [15 to 402], R2¿=¿0.33) and in ICTP (12.1 [0.0 to 24.1], R2¿=¿0.34). Similar results were found for QuickDASH. Higher total dorsal and palmar flexion range of motion was significantly related to early increase in hsCRP (9.62 [3.90 to 15.34], R2¿=¿0.52). This exploratory study indicates that the assessment of early changes in trabecular BMD, trabecular separation, calculated torsional stiffness, bone resorption marker ICTP, and hsCRP after a distal radius fracture provides valuable information regarding the 12-week clinical outcome in terms of pain, disability, and range of motion and validates its use in studies on the process of early fracture healing. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research