Association between adiponectin and heart failure risk in the Physicians' Health Study

Limited data are available on the association between adiponectin and incident heart failure. In the current ancillary study to the Physicians' Health Study, we used a prospective nested-case control design to examine whether plasma adiponectin concentration was related to the risk of heart failure. We selected 787 incident heart failure cases and 787 matched controls for the current analysis. Each control was selected using a risk set sampling technique at the time of the occurrence of the index case and matched on year of birth, age at blood collection, and race. Adiponectin was measured using ELISA. Heart failure occurrence was self-reported in annual follow-up questionnaire. Validation of self-reported heart failure in this cohort has been published. The mean age was 58.7 years. In a conditional logistic regression adjusting for age, race, time of blood collection, year of birth, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, smoking, alcohol intake, and exercise, estimates of the relative risk (95% confidence interval) were 1.0 (ref), 0.74 (0.53–1.04), 0.67 (0.48–0.94), 0.70 (0.50–0.99), and 0.92 (0.65–1.30) from the lowest to the highest quintile of adiponectin, respectively, p for quadratic trend 0.004. Additional adjustment for potential mediating factors including diabetes, C-reactive protein, and body mass index led to the attenuation of the estimate of effect [1.0 (ref), 0.81 (0.57–1.15), 0.75 (0.53–1.06), 0.83 (0.58–1.18), and 1.26 (0.87–1.81) across consecutive quintiles of adiponectin]. Our data are consistent with a J-shaped association between total adiponectin and the risk of heart failure among US male physicians

Migraine, vascular risk, and cardiovascular events in women: prospective cohort study

Objectives To evaluate whether the association between migraine with aura and increased risk of cardiovascular disease is modified by vascular risk groups as measured by the Framingham risk score for coronary heart disease

Prospective Cohort Study of Type 2 Diabetes and the Risk of Parkinson's Disease

OBJECTIVE—To evaluate the association between type 2 diabetes and newly reported Parkinson's disease

Restless Legs Syndrome and Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease in Women and Men: Prospective Cohort Study

Objectives: To evaluate the association between restless legs syndrome (RLS) and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Women's Health Study (WHS) and Physicians' Health Study (PHS), USA. Participants: 29,756 female health professionals aged $\geq 45$ years and 19,182 male physicians aged $\geq 40$ years at baseline. Main outcome measures: Main outcome was incidence of major CVD; secondary outcomes were first incidence of myocardial infarction, stroke, death due to CVD or coronary revascularisation. Results: 3487 (11.7%) women and 1373 (7.2%) men met International Restless Legs Study Group criteria for RLS. In the WHS 450 major CVD events occurred and 1064 major CVD events were confirmed in the PHS. In both cohorts, RLS was not associated with increased risk of major CVD, stroke, myocardial infarction, CVD death or coronary revascularisation. After adjustment for major vascular risk factors, the HRs (95% CI) for major CVD were 1.15 (0.88 to 1.50) in women and 1.01 (0.81 to 1.25) in men. Highest multivariable-adjusted HRs were 1.29 (0.91 to 1.82) for total stroke in women and 1.22 (0.87 to 1.70) for CVD death in men. Excluding participants with comorbidities potentially leading to RLS did not substantially change the effect estimates. Conclusions: In these large prospective studies of female and male health professionals, RLS was not associated with an increased risk of any incident CVD event. The data do not support the hypothesis that RLS is a marker of increased risk of vascular disease

Effects of aspirin on risks of vascular events and cancer according to bodyweight and dose:analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials

Background A one-dose-fits-all approach to use of aspirin has yielded only modest benefits in long-term prevention of cardiovascular events, possibly due to underdosing in patients of large body size and excess dosing in patients of small body size, which might also affect other outcomes. Methods Using individual patient data, we analysed the modifying effects of bodyweight (10 kg bands) and height (10 cm bands) on the effects of low doses (≤100 mg) and higher doses (300–325 mg or ≥500 mg) of aspirin in randomised trials of aspirin in primary prevention of cardiovascular events. We stratified the findings by age, sex, and vascular risk factors, and validated them in trials of aspirin in secondary prevention of stroke. Additionally, we assessed whether any weight or height dependence was evident for the effect of aspirin on 20-year risk of colorectal cancer or any in-trial cancer. Results Among ten eligible trials of aspirin in primary prevention (including 117 279 participants), bodyweight varied four-fold and trial median weight ranged from 60·0 kg to 81·2 kg (pand#60;0·0001). The ability of 75–100 mg aspirin to reduce cardiovascular events decreased with increasing weight (pinteraction=0·0072), with benefit seen in people weighing 50–69 kg (hazard ratio [HR] 0·75 [95% CI 0·65–0·85]) but not in those weighing 70 kg or more (0·95 [0·86–1·04]; 1·09 [0·93–1·29] for vascular death). Furthermore, the case fatality of a first cardiovascular event was increased by low-dose aspirin in people weighing 70 kg or more (odds ratio 1·33 [95% CI 1·08–1·64], p=0·0082). Higher doses of aspirin (≥325 mg) had the opposite interaction with bodyweight (difference pinteraction=0·0013), reducing cardiovascular events only at higher weight (pinteraction=0·017). Findings were similar in men and women, in people with diabetes, in trials of aspirin in secondary prevention, and in relation to height (pinteraction=0·0025 for cardiovascular events). Aspirin-mediated reductions in long-term risk of colorectal cancer were also weight dependent (pinteraction=0·038). Stratification by body size also revealed harms due to excess dosing: risk of sudden death was increased by aspirin in people at low weight for dose (pinteraction=0·0018) and risk of all-cause death was increased in people weighing less than 50 kg who were receiving 75–100 mg aspirin (HR 1·52 [95% CI 1·04–2·21], p=0·031). In participants aged 70 years or older, the 3-year risk of cancer was also increased by aspirin (1·20 [1·03–1·47], p=0·02), particularly in those weighing less than 70 kg (1·31 [1·07–1·61], p=0·009) and consequently in women (1·44 [1·11–1·87], p=0·0069). Interpretation Low doses of aspirin (75–100 mg) were only effective in preventing vascular events in patients weighing less than 70 kg, and had no benefit in the 80% of men and nearly 50% of all women weighing 70 kg or more. By contrast, higher doses of aspirin were only effective in patients weighing 70 kg or more. Given that aspirin's effects on other outcomes, including cancer, also showed interactions with body size, a one-dose-fits-all approach to aspirin is unlikely to be optimal, and a more tailored strategy is required

An application of conditional logistic regression and multifactor dimensionality reduction for detecting gene-gene Interactions on risk of myocardial infarction: The importance of model validation

BACKGROUND: To examine interactions among the angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) insertion/deletion, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) 4G/5G, and tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) insertion/deletion gene polymorphisms on risk of myocardial infarction using data from 343 matched case-control pairs from the Physicians Health Study. We examined the data using both conditional logistic regression and the multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) method. One advantage of the MDR method is that it provides an internal prediction error for validation. We summarize our use of this internal prediction error for model validation. RESULTS: The overall results for the two methods were consistent, with both suggesting an interaction between the ACE I/D and PAI-1 4G/5G polymorphisms. However, using ten-fold cross validation, the 46% prediction error for the final MDR model was not significantly lower than that expected by chance. CONCLUSIONS: The significant interaction initially observed does not validate and may represent a type I error. As data-driven analytic methods continue to be developed and used to examine complex genetic interactions, it will become increasingly important to stress model validation in order to ensure that significant effects represent true relationships rather than chance findings

Prediagnostic Plasma Vitamin D Metabolites and Mortality among Patients with Prostate Cancer

Laboratory evidence suggests that vitamin D might influence prostate cancer prognosis.We examined the associations between prediagnostic plasma levels of 25(OH)vitamin D [25(OH)D] and 1,25(OH)(2) vitamin D [1,25(OH)(2)D] and mortality among 1822 participants of the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and Physicians' Health Study who were diagnosed with prostate cancer. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of total mortality (n = 595) and lethal prostate cancer (death from prostate cancer or development of bone metastases; n = 202). In models adjusted for age at diagnosis, BMI, physical activity, and smoking, we observed a HR of 1.22 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.54) for total mortality, comparing men in the lowest to the highest quartile of 25(OH)D. There was no association between 1,25(OH)(2)D and total mortality. Men with the lowest 25(OH)D quartile were more likely to die of their cancer (HR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.39) compared to those in the highest quartile (P(trend) = 0.006). This association was largely explained by the association between low 25(OH)D levels and advanced cancer stage and higher Gleason score, suggesting that these variables may mediate the influence of 25(OH)D on prognosis. The association also tended to be stronger among patients with samples collected within five years of cancer diagnosis. 1,25(OH)(2)D levels were not associated with lethal prostate cancer.Although potential bias of less advanced disease due to more screening activity among men with high 25(OH)D levels cannot be ruled out, higher prediagnostic plasma 25(OH)D might be associated with improved prostate cancer prognosis

Cost-effectiveness analysis of sacubitril/valsartan vs enalapril in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction

Importance  The angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor sacubitril/valsartan was associated with a reduction in cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality, and hospitalizations compared with enalapril. Sacubitril/valsartan has been approved for use in heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction in the United States and cost has been suggested as 1 factor that will influence the use of this agent. Objective  To estimate the cost-effectiveness of sacubitril/valsartan vs enalapril in the United States. Design, Setting, and Participants  Data from US adults (mean [SD] age, 63.8 [11.5] years) with HF with reduced ejection fraction and characteristics similar to those in the PARADIGM-HF trial were used as inputs for a 2-state Markov model simulated HF. Risks of all-cause mortality and hospitalization from HF or other reasons were estimated with a 30-year time horizon. Quality of life was based on trial EQ-5D scores. Hospital costs combined Medicare and private insurance reimbursement rates; medication costs included the wholesale acquisition cost for sacubitril/valsartan and enalapril. A discount rate of 3% was used. Sensitivity analyses were performed on key inputs including: hospital costs, mortality benefit, hazard ratio for hospitalization reduction, drug costs, and quality-of-life estimates. Main Outcomes and Measures  Hospitalizations, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and incremental costs per QALY gained. Results  The 2-state Markov model of US adult patients (mean age, 63.8 years) calculated that there would be 220 fewer hospital admissions per 1000 patients with HF treated with sacubitril/valsartan vs enalapril over 30 years. The incremental costs and QALYs gained with sacubitril/valsartan treatment were estimated at $35 512 and 0.78, respectively, compared with enalapril, equating to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of$45 017 per QALY for the base-case. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated ICERs ranging from $35 357 to$75 301 per QALY. Conclusions and Relevance  For eligible patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction, the Markov model calculated that sacubitril/valsartan would increase life expectancy at an ICER consistent with other high-value accepted cardiovascular interventions. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated sacubitril/valsartan would remain cost-effective vs enalapril