A Ricardian analysis of the climate change impact on Nepalese agriculture

This paper applies Ricardian approach to measure the effect of climate change on crop production in Nepal using cross-section data of Nepal Living Standard Survey 2003/04 and climate data from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal. The study examines the relationship between net farm revenue and climate variables using 656 households of 14 districts covering all climatic zones of Nepal. Net farm revenue is regressed on climate and socio-economic variables. The findings show that these variables have significant impact on the net farm value per hectare. More specifically, relatively low precipitation and high temperature seem to have positive impact on net farm income during the fall and spring seasons. Net farm income is likely to be increased by summer precipitation, but not by temperature. Marginal impacts are mostly in line with the Ricardian model, showing marginally increasing precipitation during summer and winter would increase net farm income, but reduce by the quarter terms and temperature of these seasons. Moreover, marginally increasing precipitation would increase farm income in the hilly region, but reduce in Terai region. Other variables such as ratio of irrigated farm land and obtaining credit are found to be positive impact on net farm value but not by farm size. Conclusively, the impact of climate change on agriculture seems to be varied with the temperature and precipitation in different climatic zones.climate change, agriculture, Ricardian approach, marginal impact, Nepal

Economic Development and Child Nutrition in Nepal

Child malnutrition rates in Nepal are among the highest in the world. Government and non-governmental agencies are actively seeking various pathways that might be useful to improve child nutrition outcomes in Nepal, fill gaps in understanding surrounding nutrition drivers, and shorten the time required to attain the Millennium Development Goals. This dissertation includes three essays that use a range of data, including nationally representative data on the growth of children nutrition below five years of age, to identify potential pathways for improving child nutrition in Nepal

Economic and financial returns of livestock agribusiness in high mountains of Nepal

Development partners and donor agencies often target programs and projects in poverty stricken and vulnerable regions around the world. However, there is paucity on economic and financial analysis of such investments. This study contributes to the literature by assessing financial internal rate of return (FIRR) and economic internal rate of return (EIRR) of livestock agribusiness, a vital component of ‘High Mountain Agribusiness and Livelihood Improvement’ (HIMALI) project supported by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) from 2011 to 2018 in ten mountain districts of Nepal. The analysis employs a unique dataset on annual cost (investment, operation and labour) and revenue of 138 livestock agribusiness from 2013 to 2017. The study estimates the EIRR and FIRR of six important livestock species namely, goat, sheep, mountain goat known as chyangra, chauri (a cross-bred of yak and local hill cow), cattle and pig raised in high uplands of Nepal. The overall EIRR of livestock agribusiness is 15% with the highest EIRR observed for sheep (18%), followed by goat (16%), chauri (14%), chyangra (14%) and pig (12%) farm enterprises. By contrast, the overall FIRR of livestock agribusiness is just 12%. Sensitivity analysis shows that the livestock agribusiness is highly sensitive to changes in revenue and operation costs. Some of the major challenges identified are lack of veterinary services and capital to scale-up agribusiness, inadequate market linkages, and limited pastureland. Among livestock agribusiness, sheep, goat, chyangra, and chauri has a high potential in high mountains. The low FIRR indicates a high risk to agribusiness. The study therefore recommends local, provincial and federal governments to deliver reliable extension services, improve market access and provide financial support to ensure the financial sustainability of livestock enterprises in the most difficult and economically lagged region of the country

Technical Efficiency of Freshwater Aquaculture and its Determinants in Tripura, India

Freshwater aquaculture is an important and promising sector of the economy of Tripura State. The biophysical potential for growth in freshwater aquaculture in the state is still far from exhaustion and a faster development is required to meet the growth in demand for fish. This paper has assessed the level of technical efficiency and its determinants of small-scale fish production in the West Tripura district of the state of Tripura, India. The study is based on the cross-sectional primary data collected from 101 fish farmers through a multi-stage random sampling method. The paper has employed stochastic production frontier approach, and has followed both one-stage and two-stage procedures to analyze the determinants of TE. The TE ranges between 0.21 and 0.96 with mean of 0.66 and median of 0.71. The study has revealed the Cobb-Douglas form of stochastic frontier production function is more dependable than that of translog form under the farming conditions in the West Tripura district of Tripura state. One-stage procedure with technical inefficiency model gives reliable estimates of coefficients of stochastic frontier production function than that of two-stage procedure. Seed quality has been found as an important determinant of TE. The study has suggested that the state government needs to play a role to ascertain the supply of quality fish fingerlings at adequate time and quantity to the farmers in the study area.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Role of Agriculture in Achieving MDG 1 in Asia and the Pacific Region

This paper examines whether agricultural growth through public expenditure, ODA or investment will improve significantly the prospects of achieving MDG 1 of halving poverty in Asia and the Pacific Region. As more than a few countries in this Region recorded impressive economic growth in the early years of the present decade, the case for the widely used poverty threshold of US$1.25 per day (at 2005 PPP) for assessing progress towards MDG1 is not so compelling now. Accordingly, the present assessment uses two poverty thresholds: US$2 per day and US$1.25 per day (both at 2005 PPP). Our analysis, based on country panel data, confirms robustly that increases in public agricultural expenditure, agricultural ODA, agricultural investment, or fertiliser use (as a proxy for technology), accelerate agricultural and GDP growth. Consequently, the headcount and depth of poverty indices are reduced substantially. Our simulation results show that, for halving the headcount index at US$2 per day, Asia and the Pacific region as a whole would need in 2007-13 a 56% increase in annual agricultural ODA, a 28% increase in agricultural expenditure, a 23% increase in fertiliser use or a 24% increase in agricultural investment. Aggregation of the simulation results for various groups reveals that countries in low income group, with a low level of macro governance or institutional quality, or with low ease of doing business would need larger increase in agricultural ODA, expenditure or investment to halve poverty. Although the share of agriculture in GDP has declined, our analysis reinforces the case for channelling a substantially larger flow of resources not just for accelerating growth but also for achieving the more ambitious MDG1. A policy dilemma, however, is the trade-off between institutional quality and resource transfers. National governments and donors must reflect deeply on triggers for institutional reforms and mechanisms that would ensure larger outlays for agriculture and their allocation between rural infrastructure and sustainable technologies.Millennium Development Goal, Poverty, Agriculture, ODA, Investment, Public Expenditure, Asia, Panel Data, Simulations

A Ricardian analysis of the climate change impact on Nepalese agriculture

This paper applies Ricardian approach to measure the effect of climate change on crop production in Nepal using cross-section data of Nepal Living Standard Survey 2003/04 and climate data from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal. The study examines the relationship between net farm revenue and climate variables using 656 households of 14 districts covering all climatic zones of Nepal. Net farm revenue is regressed on climate and socio-economic variables. The findings show that these variables have significant impact on the net farm value per hectare. More specifically, relatively low precipitation and high temperature seem to have positive impact on net farm income during the fall and spring seasons. Net farm income is likely to be increased by summer precipitation, but not by temperature. Marginal impacts are mostly in line with the Ricardian model, showing marginally increasing precipitation during summer and winter would increase net farm income, but reduce by the quarter terms and temperature of these seasons. Moreover, marginally increasing precipitation would increase farm income in the hilly region, but reduce in Terai region. Other variables such as ratio of irrigated farm land and obtaining credit are found to be positive impact on net farm value but not by farm size. Conclusively, the impact of climate change on agriculture seems to be varied with the temperature and precipitation in different climatic zones

A Ricardian analysis of the climate change impact on Nepalese agriculture

This paper applies Ricardian approach to measure the effect of climate change on crop production in Nepal using cross-section data of Nepal Living Standard Survey 2003/04 and climate data from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal. The study examines the relationship between net farm revenue and climate variables using 656 households of 14 districts covering all climatic zones of Nepal. Net farm revenue is regressed on climate and socio-economic variables. The findings show that these variables have significant impact on the net farm value per hectare. More specifically, relatively low precipitation and high temperature seem to have positive impact on net farm income during the fall and spring seasons. Net farm income is likely to be increased by summer precipitation, but not by temperature. Marginal impacts are mostly in line with the Ricardian model, showing marginally increasing precipitation during summer and winter would increase net farm income, but reduce by the quarter terms and temperature of these seasons. Moreover, marginally increasing precipitation would increase farm income in the hilly region, but reduce in Terai region. Other variables such as ratio of irrigated farm land and obtaining credit are found to be positive impact on net farm value but not by farm size. Conclusively, the impact of climate change on agriculture seems to be varied with the temperature and precipitation in different climatic zones

Fiscal Stimulus, Agricultural Growth and Poverty in Asia

Recent debates on a sustainable recovery of the global economy have tended to overemphasise the "savings glut" hypothesis and the unavoidable imperative of higher consumption in China and other emerging Asian countries. That oversaving and not underinvestment is coming in the way of a quicker and more durable recovery is not just simplistic but misleading from a medium- term growth perspective for emerging Asian countries and other developing countries in this region. Drawing upon country panel data for developing countries and a sub-sample of Asian countries during the period 1991 to 2007, the present study makes a case for a bold and coordinated fiscal stimulus, directed to stimulating agricultural and overall growth, and mitigation of poverty and hunger. Our simulations further suggest that poverty reduction is likely to be larger if the fiscal stimulus is directed to social spending in health and education sectors. Indeed, if our simulations of fiscal impacts have any validity, the dire predictions of millions getting trapped in poverty and hunger may turn out to be exaggerated. The prospects of a strong recovery led by fiscal stimulus are thus real and achievable.Government Expenditure, Fiscal Policy, Economic Growth, Agricultural Growth, Poverty, Asia

Microfinance and Poverty -A Macro Perspective

Building on the recent literature on finance, growth and hunger, we have examined the experience of Asian countries over the last five decades, using dynamic panel models. Although the results are mixed, depending on the specification and variables used, there is some evidence favouring a positive role of finance in growth of GDP and agricultural value added. While financial development reduces income inequality, the effects on hunger are not so robust. Although microfinance has considerable potential for ameliorating deprivation, the contraction of credit and risk aversion of investors, together with a faltering global recovery, underlie gloomy prospects for the poor in Asia.Finance, Economic Development, Agriculture, Inequality, Poverty, Asia