A new geography of preferences for Sub-Saharan African countries in a globalizing trading system

Trade between developing countries, or South-South trade, has been growing rapidly in recent years following significant reductions in tariffs. However, significant barriers remain, and there is currently reluctance among many developing countries to undertake further reductions. In addition African countries and in particular least developed African countries are still marginal players in this reframing of geography of trade. The erosion of preferential access to Northern markets remains their major concern and the status quo in multilateral liberalization could be seen as a desirable scenario. This emphasis on developed countries markets, principally Europe and the US, is likely to represent a missed opportunity for African countries. Unless those countries are granted broader preferences by the European Union and other developed countries, especially in agriculture, significant gains would be obtained from trade preferences provided by other developing countries. To assess this we compare the potential effects of the removal of barriers on trade between African countries and other developing countries with the gains from developed country liberalization. A general equilibrium model containing information on preferential bilateral tariffs is used to estimate the impacts

A new geography of preferences for Sub-Saharan African countries in a globalizing trading system

Trade between developing countries, or South-South trade, has been growing rapidly in recent years following significant reductions in tariffs. However, significant barriers remain, and there is currently reluctance among many developing countries to undertake further reductions. In addition African countries and in particular least developed African countries are still marginal players in this reframing of geography of trade. The erosion of preferential access to Northern markets remains their major concern and the status quo in multilateral liberalization could be seen as a desirable scenario. This emphasis on developed countries markets, principally Europe and the US, is likely to represent a missed opportunity for African countries. Unless those countries are granted broader preferences by the European Union and other developed countries, especially in agriculture, significant gains would be obtained from trade preferences provided by other developing countries. To assess this we compare the potential effects of the removal of barriers on trade between African countries and other developing countries with the gains from developed country liberalization. A general equilibrium model containing information on preferential bilateral tariffs is used to estimate the impacts.Africa, Exports, Market Access, Preferences

Trade Liberalisation and Informality: New stylized facts

The relationship between trade liberalisation and informal activity has not received the attention, whether theoretical or empirical, that it may deserve. The conventional view poses that trade liberalisation would cause a rise in informality. This paper uses three different data sets to assess the sign of the relationship. Empirical results provide a mixed picture. Macro founded data tend to produce results supporting the conventional view. Micro founded data do not. Empirical results also suggest that while informal output increases with deeper trade liberalisation, informal employment falls.Informal Sector, Trade Liberalisation, Cross-sectional Analysis, Time Series Analysis, Panel Analysis

Exchange Rate Appreciations, Labor Market Rigidities, and Informality

This paper works at the interface of the literature exploring the raison d’etre of the informal labor market and that explaining the real exchange rate appreciations occurring in many Latin American countries during periods of reform. We first build a small country-Australian style model where the informal sector is seen as an unregulated non-tradables sector, augmented by heterogeneity in entrepreneurial ability and capital adjustment costs. We then examine the behavior of the model with and without a formal sector rigidity. We show that the co-movements of relative formal/informal incomes, formal/informal sector size, and the real exchange rate can offer insight into the level of distortion in the labor market and the source of ER fluctuations. We then explore time series data from Brazil, Colombia and Mexico using multivariate co-integration techniques to establish what “regime” each country is in at various periods of time. Mexico, for instance, appears to be relative undistorted and the 1987-92 appreciation appears to be largely a function of a boom in the non-tradables sector rather than wage inertia. In spite of a secular expansion of the informal sector and there is little evidence of dualism or of a rigidity driven appreciation of the Real, from 1993-1996. Post 1995 Colombia corresponds to a classic segmented labor market and an appreciation partly driven by labor market rigidities. Graphical analysis suggests that neither the Argentine appreciation (1988-1992) or the celebrated Chilean appreciation (1975-1982) were driven by inertial forces.

Exchange rate appreciations, labor market rigidities, and informality

This paper works at the interface of the literature exploring the raison d'etre of the informal labor market and that explaining the real exchange rate appreciations occurring in many Latin American countries during periods of reform. The authors first build a small country-Australian style model where the informal sector is seen as an unregulated non-tradables sector, augmented by heterogeneity in entrepreneurial ability and capital adjustment costs. They then examine the behavior of the model with and without a formal sector rigidity. It shows that the co-movements of relative formal/informal incomes, formal/informal sector size, and the real exchange rate can offer insight into the level of distortion in the labor market and the source of exchange rate fluctuations. The paper then explores time series data from Brazil, Colombia and Mexico using multivariate co-integration techniques to establish what"regime"each country is in at various periods of time. Mexico appears to be relatively undistorted and the 1987-92 appreciation appears to be largely a function of a boom in the non-tradables sector rather than wage inertia. In spite of a secular expansion of the informal sector there is little evidence of dualism or of a rigidity driven appreciation of the Real, from 1993-1996. Post 1995 Colombia corresponds to a classic segmented labor market and an appreciation partly driven by labor market rigidities. Graphical analysis suggests that neither the Argentine appreciation (1988-1992) or the celebrated Chilean appreciation (1975-1982) were driven by inertial forcesLabor Policies,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Stabilization,Macroeconomic Management,Banks&Banking Reform

Smoke in the water : the use of tariff policy flexibility in crises

As the economic crisis deepens and widens, fears of a return to the protectionist spiral of the 1930s become more common. However, an important difference between the 1930s and today is the existence of the World Trade Organization and the legal limits it imposes on the protectionist responses members can pursue. The objective of this paper is threefold. First, to assess the extent to which applied tariff can legally be raised without violating tariff-bound obligations, and compare it with what is economically possible. Second, to examine what has been the protectionist response of individual countries when facing an economic crisis since the creation of the WTO. Finally, to predict how far the protectionist responses will go during the current crisis. Results suggest that the policy space left when looking at what is economically possible is indeed quite large. However, in the recent past very little of the available policy space has been used by countries suffering from an economic crisis. Our predictions for the current crisis are modest tariff hikes in the order of 8 percent.International Trade and Trade Rules,Trade Policy,Free Trade,Debt Markets,Access to Finance

Informal Labor Markets and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

This paper examines the adjustment of developing country labor markets to macroeconomic shocks. It models a two sector labor market: a formal salaried (tradable) sector that may or may not be affected by union or legislation induced wage rigidities, and an unregulated (nontradable) self-employment sector facing liquidity constraints to entry. This is embedded in a standard small economy macro model that permits the derivation of patterns of comovement among relative salaried/self-employed incomes, salaried/self-employed sector sizes and the real exchange rate with respect to different types of shocks in contexts with and without wage rigidities. The paper then explores time series data from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico to test for cointegrating relationships corresponding to the patterns predicted by theory. We identify two types of regime. The first corresponds to periods where demand shocks to the nontradable sector offer new opportunities to (informal) entrepreneurs, the informal sector expands ?procyclically,? and the exchange rate overshoots toward appreciation in the short run, or remains at its productivity determined levels. The second corresponds to periods of negative shocks to the formal salaried sector in the presence of wage rigidities where the sector plays a more traditional ?buffer? role during downturns. --Informality,Labor market dynamics,Self-employment,Real exchange rates

Informality and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

This paper examines the adjustment of developing country labor markets to macroeconomic shocks. It models as having two sectors: a formal salaried (tradable) sector that may or may not be affected by union or legislation induced wage rigidities, and an informal (nontradable) self-employment sector facing liquidity constraints to entry. This is embedded in a standard small economy macro model that permits the derivation of patterns of comovement among relative salaried/self-employed incomes, salaried/self-employed sector sizes and the real exchange rate with respect to different types of shocks in contexts with and without wage rigidities. The paper then explores time series data from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico to test for cointegrating relationships corresponding to the patterns predicted by theory. We confirm episodes of expansion of informal self-employment consistent with the traditional segmentation views. However, we also identify episodes consistent with the sectoral expansion being driven by relative demand or productivity shocks to the nontradables sector that lead to “procyclical” behavior of the informal self-employed sector.informality, labor market dynamics, self-employment, real exchange rates

The determinants of trade survival

The aim of this paper is to explore the patterns of trade duration across regions and to identify its determinants. Using an extended Cox model, we evaluate the effects of country and product characteristics, as well as of trade cost variables on the duration of trade relationships from 96 countries from 1995 to 2004. Our results suggest first that the duration of trade relationships increases with the region level of development: trade relationships from richer economies face lower hazard rates i.e. longer duration. Second, the type of product matters for export survival, trade relationships involving differentiated products show a hazard rate that is 11% to 13% lower than trade relationships involving homogeneous goods. Third, high export costs increase the probability of export failure in all regions but the effect diminishes with time, thus suggesting that export experience matters. Finally, the size of exports also matters: the larger the transaction, the higher the probability of survival

Informality and macroeconomic fluctuations

This paper examines the adjustment of developing country labor markets to macroeconomic shocks. It models as having two sectors: a formal salaried (tradable) sector that may or may not be affected by union or legislation induced wage rigidities, and an informal (nontradable) self-employment sector facing liquidity constraints to entry. This is embedded in a standard small economy macro model that permits the derivation of patterns of comovement among relative salaried/self-employed incomes, salaried/self-employed sector sizes and the real exchange rate with respect to different types of shocks in contexts with and without wage rigidities. The paper then explores time series data from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico to test for cointegrating relationships corresponding to the patterns predicted by theory. We confirm episodes of expansion of informal self-employment consistent with the traditional segmentation views. However, we also identify episodes consistent with the sectoral expansion being driven by relative demand or productivity shocks to the nontradables sector that lead to procyclical behavior of the informal self-employed sector