International SVAR Factor Modelling

Models of Australia proxy international linkages using the US, despite Japan being an equivalent trading partner. This paper uses a Kahnan filter to extract US and Japanese reference cycles which are then used in an SVAR model of the Australian economy. The US and Japanese shocks are interpreted to be aggregate demand and interest rate shocks respectively. The results show that US shocks axe dominant for Australian outcomes, but the model is misspecified if Japan is excluded. The role of Japan is to dampen expansionary US shocks. Further, Australian monetary policy responds to domestic conditions, rather than international monetary policy.Structural VAR, latent factors, Kalman filter.

Endogenous contagion – a panel data analysis

This paper proposes a panel data model to analyze contagion in a multivariate framework. The model distinguishes between vulnerability and contagion, and provides a time series of contagion. The most important feature of the model is the endogenous determination of contagion without an a priori and potentially arbitrary specification of the crisis period. In addition, the model can distinguish between positive and negative contagion, and no assumption needs to be made about the source of the crisis. Eleven stock markets from the Asian region are analyzed during the Asian financial crisis, and contagion is found to be significant in four broad periods. These episodes are split equally between positive and negative movements. Anecdotal evidence is matched to the significant incidences of contagion, and it is found that events surrounding Hong Kong equity markets are key drivers of contagion

Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review

The paper provides a review of the estimation of structural VARs with sign restrictions. It is shown how sign restrictions solve the parametric identification problem present in structural systems but leave the model identification problem unresolved. A market and a macro model are used to illustrate these points. Suggestions have been made on how to find a unique model. These are reviewed, along with some of the difficulties that can arise in how one is to use the impulse responses found with sign restrictions.Structural Vector Autoregressions, New Keynesian Model, Sign Restrictions

Some Issues in Using Sign Restrictions for Identifying Structural VARs

The paper looks at estimation of structural VARs with sign restrictions. Since sign restrictions do not generate a unique model it is necessary to find some way of summarizing the information they yield. Existing methods present impulse responses from different models and it is argued that they should come from a common model. If this is not done the implied shocks implicit in the impulse responses will not be orthogonal. A method is described that tries to resolve this difficulty. It works with a common model whose impulse responses are as close as possible to the median values of the impulse responses (taken over the range of models satisfying the sign restrictions). Using a simple demand and supply model it is shown that there is no reason to think that sign restrictions will generate better quantitative estimates of the effects of shocks than existing methods such as assuming a system is recursive.

Commodity Currencies and Currency Commodities

There is a large literature on the influence of commodity prices on the currencies of countries with a large commodity-based export sector such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada (“commodity currencies”). There is also the idea that because of pricing power, the value of currencies of certain commodity-producing countries affects commodity prices, such as metals, energy, and agricultural-based products (“currency commodities”). This paper merges these two strands of the literature to analyse the simultaneous workings of commodity and currency markets. We implement the approach by using the Kalman filter to jointly estimate the determinants of the prices of these currencies and commodities. Included in the specification is an allowance for spillovers between the two asset types. The methodology is able to determine the extent that currencies are indeed driven by commodities, or that commodities are driven by currencies, over the period 1975 to 2005.

Tips to Ensure Impact: Best Practices in Sharing Data with Elected Officials

Best practices in sharing data with elected officials Breakout Sessio

Iron Shackles to Invisible Chains: Breaking the Binds of Collateral Consequences

Mass incarceration has a far-reaching impact when an estimated 70 million, 1 in 3, adults have a criminal record. The impact of mass incarceration is exacerbated due to collateral consequences. Collateral consequences can be defined as hidden sanctions which emerge automatically at the onset of a criminal conviction. They are referred to as “hidden” because they are not formally quantifiable in a sentence or imposed penalty. Due to the disproportionate rate in which African-Americans are incarcerated, collateral consequences have a profound impact by limiting access to jobs, professional licensure, and restricting access to the ladder of economic mobility

Financial contagion and asset pricing

Asset market interconnectedness can give rise to significant contagion risks during periods of financial crises that extend beyond the risks associated with changes in volatilities and correlation. These channels include the transmission of shocks operating through changes in the higher order comoments of asset returns, including changes in coskewness arising from changes in the interaction between volatility and average returns across asset markets. These additional contagion channels have nontrivial implications for the pricing of options through changes in the payoff probability structure and more generally, in the management of financial risks. The effects of incorrectly pricing risk has proved to be significant during many financial crises, including the subprime crisis from mid 2007 to mid 2008, the Great Recession beginning 2008 and the European debt crisis from 2010. Using an exchange options model, the effects of changes in the comoments of asset returns across asset markets are investigated with special emphasis given to understanding the effects on hedging risk during financial crises. The results reveal that by not correctly pricing the risks arising from higher order moments during financial crises, there is significant mispricing of options, while hedged portfolios during noncrisis periods become exposed to price movements in times of crises.The authors gratefully acknowledge Australian Research Council Grant DP0985783

Shocks and systemic influences: contagion in global equity markets in 1998

The transmission of the financial crises in 1998 though international equity markets is estimated through a multi-factor model of financial markets specifically allowing for contagion effects. The application measures the strength of contagion emanating from the Russia crisis of 1998, and the LTCM near collapse, using a panel of 10 emerging and developed financial markets. Pre and post default periods for Russia are distinguished. The results show that contagion is significant and widespread from both crises, although the LTCM crises has more impact on developed than emerging markets. Consistent with the existing literature, regional effects are found to be strong during financial crises. Asian markets are found to be relatively immune from contagion, perhaps reflecting the effect of their own recent crisis

Joint Tests of Contagion with Applications to Financial Crises

Joint tests of contagion are derived which are designed to have power where contagion operates simultaneously through coskewness, cokurtosis and covolatility. Finite sample properties of the new tests are evaluated and compared with existing tests of contagion that focus on a single channel. Applying the tests to daily Eurozone equity returns from 2005 to 2014 shows that contagion operates through higher order moment channels during the GFC and the European debt crisis, which are not necessarily detected by traditional tests based on correlations.The authors gratefully acknowledge ARC Discovery Project DP160102350 and DP0985783 funding