Preventing extinction and outbreaks in chaotic populations

Interactions in ecological communities are inherently nonlinear and can lead to complex population dynamics including irregular fluctuations induced by chaos. Chaotic population dynamics can exhibit violent oscillations with extremely small or large population abundances that might cause extinction and recurrent outbreaks, respectively. We present a simple method that can guide management efforts to prevent crashes, peaks, or any other undesirable state. At the same time, the irregularity of the dynamics can be preserved when chaos is desirable for the population. The control scheme is easy to implement because it relies on time series information only. The method is illustrated by two examples: control of crashes in the Ricker map and control of outbreaks in a stage-structured model of the flour beetle Tribolium. It turns out to be effective even with few available data and in the presence of noise, as is typical for ecological settings.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figure

Commodity Markets, Price Limiters and Speculative Price Dynamics

We develop a behavioral commodity market model with consumers, producers and heterogeneous speculators to characterize the nature of commodity price fluctuations and to explore the efectiveness of price stabilization schemes. Within our model, nonlinear interactions between market participants can create either bull or bear markets, or irregular price fluctuations between bulland bear markets. Both the imposition of a bottoming price level (to support producers) or a topping price level (to protect consumers) can reduce market price volatility. However, simple policy rules, such as price limiters, may have unexpected consequences in a complex environment: a minimum price level decreases the average price while a maximum price limit increases the average price. In addition, price limiters influence the price dynamics in an intricate way and may cause volatility clustering.commodity markets; price stabilization; simple limiters; technical and fundamental anaysis; bifurcation analysis; chaos control

Revisiting Paul de Grauwe’s Chaotic Exchange Rate Model : New Analytical Insights and Agent-Based Explorations

We apply recent stability and bifurcation results to provide an analytical characterization of Paul de Grauwe’s chaotic exchange rate model. We prove that the model’s fundamental steady state becomes unstable due to a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation when chartists extrapolate past exchange rate trends too strongly, a phenomenon that gives rise to cyclical exchange rate dynamics. In contrast, fundamentalists’ mean reversion strength only has a stabilizing effect on the model’s dynamics when the exchange rate is out of equilibrium. We also show that agent-based versions of Paul de Grauwe’s exchange rate model may produce endogenous exchange rate dynamics, too

Speculative housing markets and rent control : insights from nonlinear economic dynamics

Open Access by Projekt DEALWe propose a novel housing market model to explore the effectiveness of rent control. Our model reveals that the expectation formation and learning behavior of boundedly rational homebuyers, switching between extrapolative and regressive expectation rules subject to their past forecasting accuracy, may create endogenous housing market dynamics. We show that policymakers may use rent control to reduce the rent level, although such policies may have undesirable effects on the house price and the housing stock. However, we are also able to prove that well-designed rent control may help policymakers to stabilize housing market dynamics, even without creating housing market distortions

ii Control of chaotic population dynamics

Ecological and economic consideration

Molecular Assessment of Bacterial Vaginosis by Lactobacillus Abundance and Species Diversity

Background To date, women are most often diagnosed with bacterial vaginosis (BV) using microscopy based Nugent scoring or Amsel criteria. However, the accuracy is less than optimal. The aim of the present study was to confirm the identity of known BV-associated composition profiles and evaluate indicators for BV using three molecular methods. Methods Evaluation of indicators for BV was carried out by 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing of the V5-V7 region, a tailor-made 16S rRNA oligonucleotide-based microarray, and a PCR-based profiling technique termed IS-profiling, which is based on fragment variability of the 16S-23S rRNA intergenic spacer region. An inventory of vaginal bacterial species was obtained from 40 females attending a Dutch sexually transmitted infection outpatient clinic, of which 20 diagnosed with BV (Nugent score 7–10), and 20 BV negative (Nugent score 0–3). Results Analysis of the bacterial communities by 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing revealed two clusters in the BV negative women, dominated by either Lactobacillus iners or Lactobacillus crispatus and three distinct clusters in the BV positive women. In the former, there was a virtually complete, negative correlation between L. crispatus and L. iners. BV positive subjects showed cluster profiles that were relatively high in bacterial species diversity and dominated by anaerobic species, including Gardnerella vaginalis, and those belonging to the Families of Lachnospiraceae and Leptotrichiaceae. Accordingly, the Gini-Simpson index of species diversity, and the relative abundance Lactobacillus species appeared consistent indicators for BV. Under the conditions used, only the 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing method was suitable to assess species diversity, while all three molecular composition profiling methods were able to indicate Lactobacillus abundance in the vaginal microbiota. Conclusion An affordable and simple molecular test showing a depletion of the genus Lactobacillus in combination with an increased species diversity of vaginal microbiota could serve as an alternative and practical diagnostic method for the assessment of BV

Environmental considerations and current status of grouping and regulation of engineered nanomaterials

This article reviews the current status of nanotechnology with emphasis on application and related environmental considerations as well as legislation. Application and analysis of nanomaterials in infrastructure (construction, building coatings, and water treatment) is discussed, and in particular nanomaterial release during the lifecycle of these applications. Moreover, possible grouping approaches with regard to ecotoxicological and toxicological properties, and the fate of nanomaterials in the environment are evaluated. In terms of potential exposure, the opportunities that arise from leveraging advances in several key areas, such as water treatment and construction are addressed. Additionally, this review describes challenges with regard to the European Commission’s definition of ‘nanomaterial’. The revised REACH information requirements, intended to enable a comprehensive risk assessment of nanomaterials, are outlined

Noise Management by Molecular Networks

Fluctuations in the copy number of key regulatory macromolecules (“noise”) may cause physiological heterogeneity in populations of (isogenic) cells. The kinetics of processes and their wiring in molecular networks can modulate this molecular noise. Here we present a theoretical framework to study the principles of noise management by the molecular networks in living cells. The theory makes use of the natural, hierarchical organization of those networks and makes their noise management more understandable in terms of network structure. Principles governing noise management by ultrasensitive systems, signaling cascades, gene networks and feedback circuitry are discovered using this approach. For a few frequently occurring network motifs we show how they manage noise. We derive simple and intuitive equations for noise in molecule copy numbers as a determinant of physiological heterogeneity. We show how noise levels and signal sensitivity can be set independently in molecular networks, but often changes in signal sensitivity affect noise propagation. Using theory and simulations, we show that negative feedback can both enhance and reduce noise. We identify a trade-off; noise reduction in one molecular intermediate by negative feedback is at the expense of increased noise in the levels of other molecules along the feedback loop. The reactants of the processes that are strongly (cooperatively) regulated, so as to allow for negative feedback with a high strength, will display enhanced noise